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In today’s edition, we look at how successful strikes have evolved into more influence in corporate ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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April 4, 2024
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Business

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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Hi, and welcome back to Semafor Business.

One of the biggest economic stories of 2023 was the reassertion of union power. Hollywood screenwriters, Detroit auto workers, UPS delivery drivers, Las Vegas hotel workers, and New Jersey nurses all walked off the job or threatened to, and won big. Their success rubbed off on nonunion companies like Honda, which raised wages in an effort to keep pace with GM and Ford, and avoid an organizing drive.

That power is now showing up in corporate boardrooms. At three big live situations — a proxy fight at Norfolk Southern, a grocery store merger being challenged by antitrust regulators, and a pitched takeover fight at U.S. Steel — unions have emerged as credible actors with significant voices. More on that below.

Plus, Yellen heads to China, a new cyber threat emerges for banks, and companies are giving up on Fridays.

Buy/Sell
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

➚ BUY: Gold. The classic inflation hedge hit a record high after Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone. Investor David Einhorn said this week that he thinks inflation is “re-accelerating” and that his fund owns a lot of gold as protection against “something not so good happening.”

➘ SELL: Lithium. Ford delayed the launch of its new electric SUV and truck, saying it would wait for the “consumer market to develop further.” (You first, Kia.) Waning EV demand has confirmed carmakers’ fears that they moved too quickly.

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The Tape

Yellen to warn China of overproduction… Magic Kingdom beats Peltz… Google mulls charging for AI-powered search… How Hertz’s bet on EVs went terribly wrong… Goldman investors urged to vote against CEO’s raise... Amazon cuts jobs in cloud business… Paramount in exclusive deal talks with Skydance… Apple robots… Pepsi and Doritos return to Carrefour stores…

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Liz Hoffman

Unions flex boardroom muscle

THE SCENE

U.S. Steelworkers are fighting a takeover by Japan’s Nippon. Railroad unions have rallied around Norfolk Southern’s CEO in opposing a hedge fund trying to take over its board of directors. Regulators are trying to block the biggest grocery-store merger in U.S. history because it would undercut unionized workers’ ability to successfully strike.

The power that unions won last year on the picket line is now being wielded in the boardroom, with support from President Joe Biden, a proud union man who has aimed his corporate regulators toward labor practices he views as unfair.

“We saw the collective bargaining wins last year, but now we’re seeing the other playing fields where having a strong labor union can make a difference,” said Sharon Block, a former Biden adviser who now teaches at Harvard.

Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

Union membership remains on a 40-year wane but has seen a string of successful strikes and contract negotiations. Airline pilots, Hollywood screenwriters, UPS delivery drivers, and Detroit auto workers all won significant wage and benefit increases.

Now labor has emerged as a force in several corporate deals. Plenty of forces can disrupt or seal a merger — antitrust regulators, fickle debt markets, unruly shareholders — but it’s been years since unions were credibly on that list outside of major corporate crises, like the auto bailout in 2008 or airline bankruptcies in the 2000s, when unions made major concessions to save their companies.

“One reason why I believe that this deal is not going to go through is because U.S. Steel completely disrespected the wishes of the union,” said Lourenco Goncalves, the chief executive of Cleveland-Cliffs, which is trying to break up U.S. Steel’s sale to Japan’s Nippon Steel.

Goncalves said in an interview that he approached the union before he launched his own takeover bid for U.S. Steel, whose management “took offense to that, because it was very important to U.S. Steel to break the back of the USW. And that’s where the problem started.”

The United Steelworkers have come out against the sale to Nippon, calling the Japanese company’s commitment to honor the union contract “a meaningless piece of paper.” Biden has also hinted he might block the deal on national security grounds, saying last month that U.S. Steel, which has military contracts, should remain American-owned.

When the Federal Trade Commission sued to block the Krogers-Albertsons deal, it made many of the expected arguments about how the merger would raise prices for consumers, and an unusual one, too. It defined unionized grocery-store workers as a market that Krogers and Albertsons compete in, right alongside selling food. Most of their combined 700,000 workers are unionized.

Regulators say the deal would prevent unionized workers from being able to play the two companies off each other during collective bargaining negotiations and undermine the effectiveness of any strikes. That strategy was key to United Auto Workers’ win last year, when it strategically walked out at competing factories and used an agreement with Ford to strong arm General Motors and Jeep maker Stellantis into big wage bumps.

The FTC pointed to a 2022 Kroger’s walkout in Denver, when striking workers encouraged shoppers to go to Albertsons instead, and hinted in a redacted court filing that management of the two companies had discussed ways to end the strike.

LIZ’S VIEW

Unions’ power is likely temporary, a product of an historically tight labor market. They remain in long-term decline — the share of U.S. workers who belong to a union has fallen from 20% in 1983 to 10% last year — and are increasingly concentrated among government workers.

Younger generations care less about salary or corporate paternalism, and expect to have more jobs, even more careers, than their parents did. Workers in their 40s and 50s are three times more likely to be in a union than those under 25, government data shows.

It’s easy for progressives to get excited about collective bargaining wins. Starbucks’ caving to its union, which put up a surprisingly credible slate of qualified board candidates, may end up being the high-water mark for labor’s boardroom incursion.

Check out a Room for Disagreement from UAW President Shawn Fain. →

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Evidence

Office attendance continues to rise Monday through Thursday but is stalled out on Fridays, and some bosses are openly saying they’ve given up trying. “It’s madness,” Barry Diller told CNBC this morning, saying he’d made his peace with four-day-in-person schedules. “I think that is going to be the sensible evolution of all this, but it has to be standardized.”

Meanwhile, Steve Cohen thinks Friday work, in-person or remote, may be going away entirely, thanks to productivity gains from AI. His belief that we’ll all have more free time informed his recent investment in an upstart golf league. (Marx believed technology would free us from the burden of labor, Keyes famously forecast a 15-hour workweek by 2030, and study after study has shown that shorter workweeks pay for themselves with lower turnover and higher productivity. And yet here we are.)

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What We’re Tracking
Carlos Barria/Reuters

Sales pitch: Reuters reports that Alphabet is weighing a takeover bid for HubSpot, a $32 billion competitor to Salesforce. It would be a bold challenge to antitrust regulators, who are currently suing Google, Apple, and Amazon over alleged monopolistic practices. A HubSpot deal might get through because it moves Alphabet into a new market, software that helps companies organize their customer relationships — a space overwhelmingly dominated by Salesforce, which has itself horned in on Google’s business of workplace communications by buying Slack. But Washington has been suspicious of any Big Tech M&A and dismissive of the “merge to compete” argument.

Troubleshooting: Visa warned banks on Tuesday about a new cybersecurity threat tied to China. The sophisticated malware, a new version of a 2019 technique, has been used in thousands of attempts to hack financial customers in Asia and the Middle East, including sending fake SWIFT payment notifications and Moneygram templates to customers of a major Saudi bank in an attempt to tap accounts. “Once they get this on a computer, they can do anything they want,” said Shawn Loveland, chief operating officer of cybersecurity company Resecurity, which published an analysis of the threat.

Western financial institutions have not been targeted yet, though previous variants were widely used in cyberattacks in the UK and EU, Loveland said. Resecurity believes “with a moderate level of confidence” that actors with ties to China are behind this version.

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