Principals

1. Border bill bust
2. Impeaching Mayorkas
3. White House Israel veto threat
4. Middle East strikes
5. China eyes Capitol Hill debate
6. D.C.’s Iran wars

PDB: Haley requests Secret Service protection

Biden celebrates Black History Month… FAA head Whitaker testifying on Capitol Hill… Politico: Is Blinken ‘too nice to be Secretary of State?’

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

The border bill is already in trouble

Barely a day after it was unveiled, some Republican senators were already saying last rites for the chamber’s bipartisan border bill. “I think this proposal is dead,” Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss. told Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig as he departed a conference meeting Monday night. While not every GOP lawmaker is declaring the bill DOA, the measure has garnered little firm support in the face of an intense conservative backlash, and Republicans look ready to block an initial procedural vote to advance the bill currently scheduled for Wednesday. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has vocally backed the deal, told members they should feel free to vote against moving it forward so that lawmakers would have more time to review the legislation and offer amendments, according to a person briefed on the discussion. Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., also told reporters that he expected Wednesday’s vote would fail to break a filibuster. “We can’t rush this right now,” said the deal’s chief Republican negotiator. “If we’re going to actually move this bill, you gotta have more time to be able to look at it than three days.” The one bit of good news for the legislation: It picked up a key endorsement from the main Border Patrol union.

House prepares to impeach Alejandro Mayorkas

House Republicans won’t get behind a bipartisan border bill, but they do plan to impeach the person in charge of the border. A floor vote on impeaching Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is expected today, as members experiment with a new approach that ditches the usual standard of “high crimes and misdemeanors” for “breach of trust” and “willfully and systemically refus[ing] to comply with the laws enacted by Congress.” Mayorkas has been making the press rounds ahead of the vote, decrying the GOP’s “accusatory, rather than solution-focused” politics in the Washington Post and defending the administration’s border record in The New York Times Magazine. While House Republicans are largely united in going after Mayorkas, Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo. reiterated he’s a hard “no” in an op-ed on Monday in The Hill, saying the exercise was “a policy disagreement masked as an impeachment.” The House is lining up impeachment managers, but don’t expect the fireworks of a presidential trial — the Democratic-led Senate could opt for more low-key hearings or even dismiss the charges outright at the start.

The White House says no way to an Israel-only package

President Biden threatened to veto a standalone $17.6 billion Israel aid package being considered by the House, dismissing it as a “cynical political maneuver” by Republicans looking to scuttle the Senate’s wider national security bill. While not wholly unexpected, the statement was still somewhat remarkable given Biden’s public commitment to backing Israel as it wages a war against Hamas (it’s unclear whether the position could shift in the future if the Senate’s package collapses). House Speaker Mike Johnson called it an “act of betrayal.” At least two Democrats — Reps. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla. and Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J. — plan to buck the administration and vote in favor of the package. The veto threat came as Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Riyadh for talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about finding a path to peace in Gaza. Israel’s Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, who will meet with Johnson later today, told White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Monday that Hamas must be completely destroyed and voiced appreciation for U.S. support.

U.S. walks back claim it warned Iraq ahead of strikes

The U.S. sheepishly acknowledged on Monday that it had not tipped off the Iraqi government before striking Iran-backed militias on its soil, despite claiming earlier to have done so. National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby told CNN he “responded with information that I had been provided at the time” when he said they were given advance warning on Friday and “regret any confusion caused.” The strikes “destroyed or functionally damaged” most of their targets in Iraq and Syria, the Pentagon said on Monday, and casualties were likely. President Biden’s national security officials have vowed that the U.S. will do more to retaliate over the deadly attack on U.S. forces in Jordan earlier this month, but Iran-backed groups are also continuing their attacks — including with a strike near a U.S. base in Syria on Monday that killed six Kurdish fighters.

Key Dem warns China watching Hill debate national security package

China may view the U.S. failure to pass aid for Ukraine and Israel as a sign of weakness, the top Democrat on the House select committee on China warned during a Semafor “Principals Live” interview. “I am concerned how our friends and partners and allies would view us if we don’t pass this supplemental, but I’m also equally concerned how our potential adversaries would view us,” Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill. told Morgan Chalfant. He also said he plans to visit Taiwan in the wake of the island’s recent elections to meet the new president, Lai Ching-te, who is known for his wary stance towards the CCP. Krishnamoorthi also said action on TikTok was still possible this year, as lawmakers continue to harbor concerns about the app’s Chinese ownership and news stories raising questions about its efforts to wall off American user data. But Krishnamoorthi said he doesn’t want to see a ban on the platform, which boasts some 150 million users in the U.S., signaling instead his preference for a forced sale of the company. “I think that TikTok plays an important role for different businesses, especially small businesses,” he said. “I know there are a lot of people who love the dance videos.”

War and Peace in Washington

It’s still not clear whether Iran and the U.S., or China and the U.S., have war baked into their destinies. That history is still up for grabs, Steve Clemons writes in his latest Provocations column, in which he weighs in on Semafor’s exposé on the Iran Experts Initiative. That story, Clemons argues, “revealed the internal, self-congratulatory thinking of Iranian government officials who believed they were manipulating prominent American Iran analysts and experts. And some here in Washington saw it the same way, and cast aspersions on what they depicted as a shadowy circle of prominent Iran analysts and experts who were caught up in an influence operation run by one of America’s key adversaries… In the spirit of Semafor’s ethos of ‘Room for Disagreement,’ and of clearly stating our opinions on shared facts, I’d like to make the case here for exactly the kind of diplomacy that the International Crisis Group, and its former officials put into effect, at great risk to their own careers.”

Semafor launched in October of 2022 with a philosophy of presenting our sophisticated audience with reliable facts and sophisticated, diverse insights. Our Semaform story structure, which separates facts and analysis, embodies that approach. And you seem to like it!

So today we’re announcing the launch of our biggest new product since then, a new, global multi-source breaking news feed called Signals. Our journalists, using tools from Microsoft and Open AI, will offer readers diverse, global insights on the biggest stories in the world as they develop on our gorgeous site, Semafor.com, as well as other platforms like this one.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Three more Republicans — Reps. David Joyce, R-Ohio, Tom McClintock, R-Calif., and Dan Newhouse, R-Wash. could potentially join Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo. in opposing the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas later today. Joyce and McClintock both plan to release statements on their position beforehand.

The Early 202: “It’s sending our base into a tailspin,” one senior GOP aide said of the narrative about the border bill, which spread furiously among critics before the text was even released.

Playbook: One House Democrat offered a bleak prediction for the fate of Ukraine and Israel aid as well as funding to bolster Taiwan’s defenses, which the White House was hoping would all be paired with border security. “I’m coming to the notion that everything is dead,” the lawmaker said. “All of it.”

Axios: Beauty and health food brands are buying Super Bowl ads this year as the game attracts a “wider and younger audience” than in past years (thanks, Taylor Swift!).

White House

• President Biden and Vice President Harris will speak at a White House reception this evening recognizing Black History Month.
• The Biden administration is pressing Congress for $6 billion in funding for the infrastructure law’s Affordable Connectivity Program, warning it will sunset otherwise in the spring. The Federal Communications Commission will pause new enrollments in the high-speed internet program on Thursday.
• Biden said he was praying for King Charles’ “swift and full recovery” following news of his cancer diagnosis.
• Biden met with Local 226 Culinary hospitality workers while in Las Vegas, congratulating them on reaching a tentative deal with hotel casinos to avoid a strike.
• Harris is headed to Savannah, Ga. to talk about abortion rights.

Congress

• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer teed up the first procedural vote Wednesday on the supplemental package combining border security changes with Ukraine and Israel aid.
• Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C. has a staff turnover problem: Her entire office has been replaced since Nov. 1, 2023. — Daily Beast
• House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas wrote to the leaders of the Senate Armed Services Committee imploring them not to advance Derek Chollet’s nomination to be Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, citing his failure to answer questions from the committee during its Afghanistan withdrawal investigation. “Mr. Chollet exhibited not only a failure to take accountability for his role in the withdrawal but also a disregard for Congress,” McCaul wrote.
• The House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing today with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
• Federal Aviation Administration Administrator Michael Whitaker will testify before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and is sure to get some questions on Boeing’s 737 Max jet.

Outside the Beltway

Heavy rain is pummeling California, causing mudslides, flooding, and deaths. President Biden phoned California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass to offer federal support, and Bass put him on speakerphone during a news conference to offer a message to the audience. “We’ll get any help on the way as soon as you guys request it, so just let me know. That’s why I’m calling,” he said. — NYT

Economy

Even McDonalds and Starbucks haven’t been able to avoid controversy amid the Gaza war, and both companies say the conflict has impacted sales in the Middle East. — WSJ

Courts

Judge Tanya Chutkan acknowledged that Donald Trump’s federal election interference trial could extend well into 2024 (potentially snarling her plans to be out of the country in August). — Politico

Polls

Sixty-two percent of Americans (including 38% of Republicans) want to see a verdict in Donald Trump’s election interference case before the 2024 presidential election, according to new CNN polling. Only 11% say the trial should be postponed until after the election, and a quarter say the timing doesn’t make a difference.

On the Trail

• Nikki Haley asked for Secret Service protection due to increasing threats she is facing on the campaign trail. “We’ve had multiple issues,” she told the Wall Street Journal. “It’s not going to stop me from doing what I need to do.”
• Meanwhile, Haley is favored to win today’s oddball GOP primary in Nevada — she’s the only one big candidate on the ballot. Donald Trump is competing instead in the state’s Haley-less caucus on Thursday, which will actually award the state’s delegates. Read David Weigel’s explainer on how it ended up this way.
• Trump said he was eager to debate President Biden. Biden’s response, delivered to reporters at a bubble tea joint in Vegas: “Well, if I were him, I’d want to debate me too. He’s got nothing else to do.”
• Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind. reversed her plans to leave Congress. “I will file this week. The country is too much in trouble,” she told Politico.
• Democrats made a late ad buy ahead of the special election in New York’s 3rd congressional district, attempting to tie GOP candidate Mazi Melesa Pilip to George Santos (who was ousted from the seat by Congress last year).
• A group of Obama administration veterans including Ben Rhodes are relaunching the group National Security Action to advocate for Biden’s reelection based on his foreign policy record. — Axios

National Security

The State Department will restrict visas for foreigners who use commercial spyware to target journalists, activists, dissidents, or marginalized groups.

Foreign Policy

• El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele seems to be headed towards a landslide reelection win.
• The United Nations announced an independent review panel to investigate allegations that staff of UNRWA were involved in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

Technology

• Chinese companies SMIC and Huawei are on the verge of a domestic semiconductor breakthrough, with plans to make 5-nanometer smartphone chips despite U.S. restrictions. — FT
• Meta’s oversight board backed the platform’s decision to leave up a manipulated video of President Biden but criticized the company’s policies on AI-generated content as “incoherent.”

Dog Years

A biotech firm launched the first clinical trials into a drug that extends the life of dogs. The drug, LOY-001, will be tested on 1,000 dogs over 10 years old and weighing at least 14 pounds and is expected to be most successful in larger breeds, which tend to die younger. An 11-year-old whippet named Boo has already been treated.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: President Biden’s aides are worried about special counsel Robert Hur’s investigation into his handling of classified documents potentially surfacing embarrassing details, Axios reported.

What the Right isn’t reading: Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo. applied for and received a temporary restraining order against her ex-husband.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Tim Kaine is a Democratic senator from Virginia. Growing up, his daughter was friends with Lucy Dacus, who along with the rest of her band boygenius won several Grammys on Sunday.