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In today’s edition: Tariffs loom for Canada and Mexico and Gabbard faces a difficult path ahead. ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 31, 2025
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Principals

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Today in DC
A numbered map of Washington, DC.
  1. Tariffs loom
  2. DCA crash response
  3. Lawmaker impact
  4. Nominee trouble
  5. DNC race

PDB: US economic growth slows

US awaits PCE inflation report … WSJ: Trump aides hunt for offramp on Canada, Mexico tariffs … Bloomberg: US investigates if DeepSeek got Nvidia chips from Singapore

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1

Trump economic moves test GOP

Donald Trump
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

President Trump has taken Republicans on a wild economic rollercoaster ride already — and more ups and downs are ahead if he follows through on his threats to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report. A week that started with a confusing memo about spending freezes, that memo’s removal, and then more uncertainty from the White House press secretary may end with tough new levies on close US trading partners. Several GOP senators told us that they’ve warned the president or his team about potential for “damning consequences to some sectors of the economy, particularly agriculture,” as Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., put it. But others are just along for the ride. “Wyoming people want to see some eggs broken back here,” said Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo.

Read on for Burgess and Shelby’s view on what this says about chaos in the second Trump term.  →

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2

Investigation of fatal crash begins

Rescuers on boats search the wreckage of a plane crash on the Potomac River
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Washington is still trying to wrap its head around the midair collision Wednesday between an American Airlines flight bound for Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport and an Army helicopter. While it’s too early to know the cause of the crash, which killed 67 people, reports suggest that the airport’s air traffic control tower was understaffed and that the military helicopter may have deviated from its approved flight path. The National Transportation Safety Board, which recovered the plane’s black boxes, pledged to release a report on its investigation within 30 days. Meanwhile, a partisan storm is building around the catastrophe, with Trump blaming Biden-era policies and diversity hiring for the crash. Most Democrats refrained from issuing inflammatory statements blaming the Trump administration’s actions — including a hiring freeze — but quickly harped on the president’s DEI remarks. Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., summed up Trump’s words as “stunning.”

Morgan Chalfant and Kadia Goba

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3

Crash shakes DCA’s most frequent fliers

Jerry Moran bows his head during a moment of silence for plane crash victims
Sen. Jerry Moran bows his head during a moment of silence for crash victims. Nathan Howard/Reuters

Members of Congress are coworkers who often have little in common, but one of the few things that unites them is Reagan airport. Lawmakers are DC’s most frequent fliers — indeed, many senators will board planes at Reagan following their last votes this week. That adds an extra degree of dread to dealing with the aftermath of Wednesday’s devastating plane crash. “You kind of have a connection to the airport,” Republican Sen. Eric Schmitt, who flies between Washington and Missouri each week, told Semafor’s Burgess Everett. “I’ve been using [DCA] for 30 years, so I feel confident it was a tragic accident,” said Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash. She doesn’t harbor reservations about flying in and out of the airport, but acknowledged: “Of course it makes you think about it.”

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4

Trouble ahead for Gabbard?

Tulsi Gabbard sits for her Senate Intelligence Committee hearing
Nathan Howard/Reuters

Two of Trump’s nominees face headwinds. After HHS pick Robert F. Kennedy Jr. faced his second day of confirmation questioning, Senate Health Committee Chair Bill Cassidy, a key GOP vote, acknowledged he was “struggling” with whether to back him. Meanwhile, DNI pick Tulsi Gabbard faced pointed bipartisan questioning from Senate Intelligence Committee members about her views on Russia, Edward Snowden, and Section 702 surveillance. Gabbard repeatedly refused to answer whether she believes Snowden to be a traitor, frustrating members like Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind. It’s an open question whether she will have the Republican votes to get out of committee, which is planning a quick vote on her nomination. “Other members are going to have to speak for themselves,” Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., said following the closed session. “I thought she did a very nice job just now.”

Morgan Chalfant

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5

Democratic leadership fight wraps up

Ken Martin speaking in Minneapolis
Minne2020/Wikimedia Commons

The race to lead the Democratic National Committee ends on Saturday, and the candidates met for a final forum at Georgetown University Thursday. The eight candidates for DNC chair, when not trying to talk over interruptions from climate campaigners, largely agreed that the party needed to win back the “working class.” “We’ve got the right message,” said Minnesota DFL chair Ken Martin, who leads the pack in public endorsements from the DNC’s 448 members. “What we need to do is connect it back with the voters.” Ben Wikler, Wisconsin’s Democratic Party chair, argued that a focus on popular issues like defending Medicaid could “overwhelm the algorithm” of social media networks that skew toward Republicans. Asked whether “racism and misogyny” had hurt Kamala Harris last year, every candidate raised their hand.

— David Weigel

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Mixed Signals
A graphic promoting Semafor’s Mixed Signals podcast.

Making it in media is one thing — turning it into a profitable career is another. Kara Swisher knows how to do both. This week on Mixed Signals, Ben and Max call up the reporter, editor, founder, and one of the world’s most successful podcasters to talk about the business of media in 2025. She talks candidly about breaking away from traditional media, her own income, and even shares some unexpectedly kind words for Rupert Murdoch. Plus, an update on her bid for The Washington Post.

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Views

Blindspot: Immigrants and DEI

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Detroit’s Democratic mayor, Mike Duggan, faced criticism for describing undocumented immigrants as “illegal.”

What the Right isn’t reading: A Pentagon agency paused special events programming, including for Juneteenth, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and Holocaust Days of Remembrance, following President Trump’s directive on diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.

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PDB

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said that President Trump’s federal aid freeze handed Democrats a much-needed lifeline. “We started Jan. 20 really down in the dumps,” he said. “Our constituency has really been given a lift by our example… We knew that [Trump] had really screwed up. And we just pounced.”

Playbook: Trump’s second week in office harked back to the chaos of his first term, a signal that the assumption Trump 2.0 would be a more well-oil machine may be mistaken.

WaPo: Outgoing DNC Chair Jaime Harrison’s advice to Democrats? Less talk, more action. “One of the things that I really recommend that we get back to is strong, on-the-ground, in-the-community actions, where people aren’t just hearing us talk about what our values are, but they can see it in real-time,” he said.

White House

  • President Trump will sign more executive orders this afternoon. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt will also hold her second briefing.
  • Elon Musk visited the General Services Administration, and is focusing on government building costs in his quest to reduce spending. — NYT
  • Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy promised plans to “fix” the FAA, remarks that dovetailed with an executive order from Trump to root out “deterioration in hiring standards and aviation safety standards and protocols” under his predecessor.

Congress

  • Newly confirmed Interior Secretary Doug Burgum won the support of 25 Democratic senators along with all Republicans on Thursday, making his the second most bipartisan Trump Cabinet vote so far after Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s.
  • Democrats on the Senate Budget Committee walked out before a party-line vote on Russ Vought’s nomination as Trump’s pick for White House budget director. Ranking member Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., said Vought had been “intimately involved” in this week’s federal funding freeze.

Outside the Beltway

  • The Trump administration is considering moving to block New York’s congestion pricing plan. — NYT
  • Mike Rogers may run for US Senate in Michigan again, after Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., announced plans to retire.

Business

Economy

A chart showing the US’ GDP quarterly percent change.

Courts

Kash Patel
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
  • During his confirmation hearing to be FBI director, Kash Patel broke with President Trump on his commutations for Jan. 6 rioters, saying he did not agree with commuting the sentence of “any individual who committed violence against law enforcement.”
  • Sam Bankman-Fried’s parents have met with people in President Trump’s orbit in hopes of securing a pardon for the FTX co-founder. — Bloomberg

National Security

  • Several senior FBI officials have been directed to leave the bureau or be fired. — WaPo

Foreign Policy

Technology

  • The Justice Department sued to block Hewlett Packard’s planned acquisition of Juniper Networks.

Media

  • Paramount, parent company of CBS, is considering settling a lawsuit President Trump filed against the network over a “60 Minutes” segment.
  • Brendan Carr, the FCC chair, has launched an inquiry into whether NPR and PBS have dodged sponsorship rules.

Correction

Yesterday’s Principals misidentified Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind.

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

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One Good Text

Liz Shuler is president of the AFL-CIO, the largest federation of unions in the US.

Morgan Chalfant: How many panicked phone calls have you gotten regarding Trump’s push to scale back the federal workforce and bring employees back to the office full time?  Liz Shuler, AFL-CIO president: We’re hearing a lot of confusion and uncertainty, but the loudest message I’ve received is this: These hundreds of thousands of federal government and contract workers are proud to care for veterans, deliver Social Security, and keep our food, air, water, and communities safe. Even if politicians don’t always see it, these workers know their jobs matter. Their unions and the labor movement are behind them, and they’ll keep delivering for the American people — no matter the distractions.
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Semafor Spotlight
A great read from Semafor Net Zero.A natural gas well is drilled near Canton, in Bradford County, Pennsylvania
Les Stone/Reuters

The breakout success of Chinese AI platform DeepSeek doesn’t mean a dimmer future for the US electric grid, despite what Wall Street seems to think, the billionaire CEO of a company racing to produce low-carbon power from natural gas told Semafor’s Tim McDonnell.

Danny Rice — who made a fortune drilling for natural gas in Pennsylvania with his company NET Power — is still bullish about the opportunity AI presents for energy companies.

For more on how AI will impact the energy industry, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero newsletter. →

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