Flagship

US-China military talks resume

U.S. and Chinese defense officials held their first formal talks in more than two years. The resumption of military-to-military communication had been a key agreement of a November meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders, and came as China’s foreign minister delivered a speech acknowledging the countries had “restructured communication and dialogue, stemming the decline and stabilizing bilateral ties.” Still, huge challenges remain in their relationship, not least Taiwan’s upcoming election — Beijing has chafed at growing support in Washington for militarily and diplomatically supporting the island, which China sees as a breakaway province. Indeed, during the recent talks Chinese officials said Beijing “will never compromise or back down on the Taiwan issue.”

Trump issues warning

Former U.S. President Donald Trump warned of “bedlam” if judges rejected his claims of immunity over charges of planning to reverse the results of the 2020 election. His remarks came after his lawyer argued that a president couldn’t be prosecuted for using the military to assassinate a political rival. Though judges appeared skeptical and Trump looks likely to lose this legal battle, the episode underlined worries over the potential for violence surrounding the presidential election, in which Trump is the Republican frontrunner. Trump, who is facing an array of legal cases, is trying to postpone proceedings, the historian Heather Cox Richardson argued, “with the evident hope that” that they “can be delayed until after the election.”

African economies set for growth

Sub-Saharan Africa will be a bright spot in an otherwise bleak global economy this year, the World Bank forecast. The region will benefit from easing inflation and improved financial conditions, according to the Washington-based lender, whose assessment echoes that of the International Monetary Fund, which projects that sub-Saharan Africa will account for six of the world’s 10 fastest-growing economies this year. Still, that accelerating growth — 3.8% this year, and 4.1% next year — won’t be enough to rescue the global economy from what the World Bank projects will be the slowest five-year period in decades. “Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity,” the bank’s chief economist said.

Violence soars in Ecuador

Explosions, looting, and the storming of a hospital and a TV station were reported in Ecuador as gangs across the country retaliated against a state of emergency declaration by the government. The two-month decree followed the escape from prison of one of the country’s top gang leaders, as well as growing violence in jails nationwide. The uprising threatens to derail the government of President Daniel Noboa, a political neophyte who had sought to replicate a strategy pioneered in El Salvador and gaining currency across Latin America of severely cracking down on gang violence. “Facing an unprecedented test, the president must rise to the challenge or step aside,” the editorial board of one of Ecuador’s biggest newspapers wrote.

US urges Israel diplomacy

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israel to work with Arab nations towards a Palestinian state as part of efforts to end the war in Gaza. Blinken’s remarks came during a frenetic Middle East tour in which he insisted regional countries were still open to maintaining or establishing diplomatic ties with Israel, a view reiterated by Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to London. Negotiations over freeing hostages still held by Palestinian militants in Gaza resumed, meanwhile, with Israeli negotiators holding talks in Cairo, though Qatari officials have reportedly said the killing of a senior Hamas official — a strike blamed on Israel — has made constructing any new deal far more difficult.

2023 breaks temperature records

Last year was the hottest since at least the 19th century, the European Union’s climate-monitoring service said. The data confirmed fears that the world is on the verge of breaking through the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold of warming above pre-industrial levels that scientists have warned against. Still, “missing the 1.5 degree target does not mean that we’re all going to boil, bake, and die,” two climate experts wrote in Foreign Policy: The worst-case scenarios of temperature increases have gradually lessened as some action has been taken. “The catastrophism surrounding the impending failure to reach the 1.5-degree target has generated both panic and distrust,” they continued, arguing that policymakers should instead focus on lowering emissions and helping poorer countries adapt.

Norway approves deep-sea mining

​​Norway became the first country to approve commercial-scale deep-sea mining. Despite opposition from environmentalists who claim the practice could have a devastating impact on marine life, 80% of the country’s Parliament voted in favor. Greenpeace said it was “embarrassing” to see Oslo — a major oil exporter that nevertheless produces more than 70% of its electricity from renewable sources — try to position itself as a defender of the ocean while green-lighting “the destruction of Arctic waters.” The seemingly contradictory pursuits highlight a dilemma at the heart of the energy transition: “Production of minerals needed to build [electric vehicle] batteries and other clean tech entails its own unavoidable environmental risks,” Semafor’s Climate & Energy Editor Tim McDonnell wrote.

January 14-19, 2024 | Switzerland

Semafor will be on the ground at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, covering what’s happening on the main stages and lifting the curtain on what’s happening behind them.

Sign up to receive our pop-up newsletter: Semafor Davos (and if you’re flying to Zurich let us know so we can invite you to one of Semafor’s private convenings).

Uranium prices surge

Uranium prices reached their highest level since 2007. A pound of uranium now costs $92.50, up from about $50 six months ago. The surge is driven partly by supply concerns — many mines were shut after the 2011 Fukushima disaster, and a ban on Russian imports is expected — but also by expectations of increased demand: The COP28 summit saw 24 countries pledge to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. The rising price makes mines economically sustainable, and several mothballed projects in the U.S., Africa, and Australia are likely to be restarted. “Who would have thought that in just two years, public sentiment and government support would have shifted this strongly?,” one investor said.

Birds of prey plummeting

Africa’s birds of prey are in sharp decline, with many at risk of extinction. The number of secretary birds is down by 85%, martial eagles by 90%, and bateleurs by 87%, according to data gathered between 1969 and 2020 in six African countries. Almost all the 42 species of raptor studied had shown declines, and some thought not to be vulnerable, such as African hawk-eagles, were shown to be endangered. Growing pesticide use, poaching, and the spread of electrical power lines were among the biggest threats. Population decline was twice as fast in unprotected areas as protected ones, demonstrating the importance of well-managed reserves and national parks.

Indian classical-music legend dies

Rashid Khan, a celebrated Indian classical singer, died aged 55. Khan was “perhaps the finest Hindustani classical vocalist of our times and a compelling reminder of the brilliance and brightness of an age-old musical era,” The Indian Express wrote, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed his “unparalleled talent.” Khan’s father sent the singer to study under a respected music teacher aged just six, with the boy’s prodigious talent meaning he made his concert debut at 11. Khan had been receiving treatment for prostate cancer, but his health took a turn for the worse in the past month. The Indian historian Ramachandra Guha listed as his personal favorite Khan’s rendition of the raga Hamsadhwani.

In yesterday’s Flagship, we reported that top U.S. economic officials won’t be attending the World Economic Forum in Davos. But Secretary of State Antony Blinken and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan are making the trip — so it’s hardly a snub.

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg convenes a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council.
• Saudi Arabia hosts global mining companies for the Future Minerals Forum.
• Nominees will be announced for the annual Screen Actors Guild Awards.

​​The number of dengue cases authorities in Brazil forecast for 2024 under a worst-case scenario, a threefold increase from last year. Scientists in the country have warned that a rise in temperatures — driven both by climate change and El Niño, a warm-weather pattern — as well as an increase in rainfall could create an ideal environment for the mosquito-borne disease to spread. The same conditions led California to report its first locally acquired dengue cases last year. “We have a situation that is very worrying,” a Brazilian health ministry official said. “There will be [an acceleration] in transmission.”

Prince’s 1984 film, Purple Rain, is being adapted into a Broadway musical. The show is set to feature hit songs by the late musician, who also released an album by the same name. “We can’t wait for a new generation to discover Purple Rain and for lovers of the original film and album to experience its power once again, this time live,” said project members. The original movie, which follows the story of an ambitious musician battling trouble at home, won the Oscar for best original score, with classics including When Doves Cry, Purple Rain, and Let’s Go Crazy.

• Taylor Swift becomes an issue in Taiwan’s election and more in Semafor’s inaugural Global Election Hot List.
• Investor Bill Ackman’s latest fight turns personal, again.
• Mask off: Ghana’s mystery presidential candidate reveals his identity.