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Intelligence for the New World Economy

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Intelligence for the New World Economy
Semafor World Economy
Benjy Sarlin

Benjy Sarlin

Email Benjy@BenjySarlin

Benjy is the Washington Bureau Chief at Semafor. He previously covered elections and their consequences at NBC News.

‘The groups’ are too easy a scapegoat for Democrats

Activists can drag Democrats to the left, but it was the post-2016 mindset that did the most damage to Harris.
REUTERS/Carlos Osorio

A very simple prescription for Democrats: Just wait

Why Kamala Harris lost is going to take time to parse — and may have less to do with issues voters decide the next election on.
REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt

The 2024 election should end the ‘demographics are destiny’ era of politics

For the last two decades, the parties have been obsessed with the idea of a permanent majority. It’s not coming.
A woman wears a yellow shirt that reads “I want everybody to vote!” ahead of the US election.
Kevin Mohatt/Reuters

Donald Trump decisively wins a second term in the White House

A nationwide backlash to the incumbent Democratic White House showed up across red, blue, and purple states.
Former US President Donald Trump stands on stage.
Brian Snyder/Reuters

Iowa’s top pollster shocks race with finding that Harris leads Trump

It’s an earthquake finding from one of the nation’s “gold standard” pollsters. But is it reality?
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

Donald Trump’s friends are making big plans. Democrats are taking notice.

Allies from Elon Musk to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are wading into politically sensitive policy areas.
Elon Musk
Carlos Barria/Reuters

Why there are fewer polls this election

Rising costs, falling media budgets, and a potential “Nate Silver effect” may be reducing the number of surveys.

Forget the median voter. This election is about the marginal voter now.

A dwindling pool of undecided voters means both campaigns are going to make some unconventional pitches.

In new ad, Harris says Trump attacks ‘designed to tear us apart’

Democratic campaign debuts direct-to-camera spot in battleground states.

Biden wanted an FDR-sized presidency. Harris is after something else.

The vice president has emphasized smaller-scale ideas that have a greater chance of becoming law.

JD Vance reopens the pre-existing condition debates

His comments on NBC News hinted at a return to Trump’s old Obamacare ideas.

Donald Trump has ‘concepts of a plan’ for Obamacare. Do they include big spending cuts?

Trump previously tried to reduce Medicaid and ACA funding. We asked for details on his future approach.

New election model sees Trump leading Harris, Dems winning House

British firm Focaldata is taking a new approach to polling the US elections.

A new crime-tracking tool tries to improve on slower FBI data

The Real Time Crime Index gathers data from over 300 agencies.

Harris caps Democratic convention’s return to Obamaism

Kamala Harris’ speech capped off a revival of Obama’s patriotic pluralist style.

Are the attacks on Tim Walz working? A Democratic pollster digs in.

Blueprint, the centrist Democratic firm, tested rebuttals to popular GOP attacks on Walz.

Democrats, finally, move past the Iraq War

Debates over the 2003 invasion shaped every Democratic ticket — until this one.

Harris leads Trump in five of seven battlegrounds: poll

The former president, meanwhile, has the edge in Arizona and Georgia.