New election model sees Trump leading Harris, Dems winning House

Focaldata’s snapshot of the race is not based on traditional state-level polling, but on a multi-level regression that estimates individual state and district outcomes based on their latest national survey data. The estimates are the first public release using the methodology in this election.

Harris leads nationally by a 1.6% margin, while almost every state is in toss-up range, with Trump holding a slight edge in key battlegrounds.

According to Focaldata’s estimates, Trump leads in Pennsylvania by a 1.4% margin, in Wisconsin by a 2.4% margin, while Harris leads in Michigan by a 1.3% margin. In the Sun Belt, Trump leads in Georgia by a 2.5% margin, in North Carolina by a 4.9% margin, and in Arizona by 0.8%, while Harris leads in Nevada by 2.3%.

“We would classify the race as lean Republican right now, with somewhere around a 60% chance of a Trump victory,” Focaldata pollster James Kanagasooriam told Semafor in an e-mail.

In the House, the model predicts Democrats would win 223 House seats to 212 for Republicans — despite winning fewer votes overall nationally than Republicans.

It would be a “bizarre situation,” Kanagasooriam said, to see both control of the House and control of the White House buck the popular vote. But given the historically close fight for both, it could reflect the national mood.

“Perhaps what the electorate are saying is they are unsure who should win, and whoever does should be massively checked — whether that’s the executive and legislature,” he continued. “That’s a more subtle story than just saying America is divided 50/50. People are internally and externally conflicted.”