The US government will release September’s jobs report on Thursday, ending a nearly seven-week data void that confounded policymakers already struggling to diagnose the economy’s health. Some figures will likely never be released and others will come with an asterisk.
The shutdown changed at least one Fed official’s mind about whether stubborn inflation or a weakening jobs market is a bigger threat to the US economy — a tough call as Trump’s new affordability messaging competes for headline space with mounting corporate layoffs. Traders’ expectations for a December interest rate cut have dropped from 70% two weeks ago to under 50% today.