The News
The $16 billion project to build Aliko Dangote’s refinery on the Kenyan coast is at the center of a high-stakes political battle ahead of elections in 10 months.
President William Ruto is hinging his second-term bid on a series of major infrastructure developments. He has argued that the refinery could raise Kenya’s annual gross domestic product by 12%. Additional expected benefits include 500MW added to the national grid and thousands of new jobs.
But mounting litigation, some initiated by his political rivals, is threatening to delay its construction, scheduled to be completed by 2030. Groups behind the legal action allege that the project is only the latest in a series of “secretive deals” signed by Ruto and his administration.
The government’s refusal to make public key agreements related to the refinery has been criticized by opposition leaders, including one of Ruto’s main challengers, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna. He has launched a bid in parliament for the documents, including the refinery contract, to be released.
Unanswered questions remain over the impact on the environment, the community living near the refinery, and taxpayers.
The president and his allies have warned that legal hurdles and uncertainty affecting key projects could dampen investor confidence.
Ruto’s government is no stranger to court challenges to its financial deals. Its plan to privatize the country’s fuel pipeline company was eventually approved after various cases were dismissed. Last month, the $1.6 billion sale of a government stake in telecoms company Safaricom to UK’s Vodafone was declared illegal by the courts — the administration has launched an appeal.
Both deals are meant to fund Ruto’s infrastructure push, according to government documents.
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Ekuru Aukot, leader of the opposition Thirdway Alliance,told Semafor he would “definitely file a suit” if the government failed to meet an Oct. 23 deadline in his access to information request seeking more details about the refinery including the names of those who stand to benefit.
“We are not opposed to investment. What we are saying is follow the law, follow the constitution,” he said.
“The era of secretive deals negotiated in the dark will end when we kick this current regime out and return our country back to the rule of law,” Sifuna said on social media, adding that Ruto was frustrating his parliamentary push for more details. He insisted that the disclosure was “a constitutional imperative.”
The threat of protracted litigation also looms over a suit launched by more than 100 Lamu residents arguing that the site of the refinery is part of their ancestral lands, with a court halting construction until the matter is heard.
In addition, campaign groups have raised the alarm over the government’s failure to publish the environmental impact report, with Greenpeace threatening legal action. Last year, its five-year effort to block the construction of a $2 billion coal plant in Lamu ended in success for the activists.
Despite the legal cases, Dangote and Ruto, who broke ground on the refinery project on Sept. 30, have expressed confidence that the project will overcome the legal hurdles.
Step Back
Seen as the candidate for the young and downtrodden in the last election, Ruto’s popularity has waned especially among the youth after the deadly 2024 Gen Z-led protests in which dozens of demonstrators were killed by police. Instead, Ruto is now leaning heavily on his infrastructure plans and the promised opportunities to shore up support for his re-election campaign.
He has promised to move Kenya “from third world to first world” within 10 years, and unveiled a $38 billion infrastructure fund meant to finance various projects.
The View From Nigeria
Dangote is taking the objections in his stride. Speaking to investors in Nairobi ahead of the groundbreaking ceremony, Dangote said legal challenges were “normal for us in Africa. In fact, this is small.”
He drew parallels with concerns over his cement plant in Senegal, which faced delays over land-related legal disputes. “They stopped our factory for one year. We went up to the Supreme Court to get a judgment,” he said.
Notable
- Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority approved the Dangote IPO, enabling local investors to participate on the Nairobi Securities Exchange.