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It’s not exactly a good cop-bad cop routine, but Donald Trump and John Thune are tag-teaming to get the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill” passed with the president’s biggest priorities intact.
While the Senate majority leader doesn’t lean on his relationship with the president as much as House Speaker Mike Johnson does, Thune and Trump are communicating more closely than ever as they wrangle 50 Republican votes for their party-line megabill. It’s a new phase in a surprising partnership — one that relies on their contrasting strengths.
The meticulous Thune is coordinating policy deals on the tax and spending cut package, and the pugilistic Trump is corralling balking conservatives in private phone calls and meetings. A shared goal of their work is protecting what’s become known as the “Big Four” Trump tax proposals: breaks on overtime, tipped wages, car loan interest, and for senior citizens.
There’s interest among some GOP senators in changing those four provisions or even eliminating them — and some tweaks are on track, like narrowing the car loan provision to cover new domestic autos. But all of Trump’s priorities are expected to be included in some form in the Senate bill, according to people familiar with the matter.
A White House official told Semafor that Trump’s strong relationships with both Thune and the House speaker is “one of the things that really distinguishes this from the first term.”
Back then, the president shared control of Washington with former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and former Speaker Paul Ryan, both of whom Trump allies viewed with more overt skepticism.
Thune and Trump have had their differences over the years, primarily over Trump’s challenges to the 2020 election results and Thune’s aversion to that effort. They’ve since cast aside past tension to advance Trump’s priorities through the closely divided Senate; they met on Monday and will meet again on Thursday, alongside Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo, R-Idaho.
“I’m talking to folks from all across the spectrum of the conference on their priorities: individually, in smaller groups,” Thune told Semafor. “And then obviously the White House gets deployed, and has been very anxious to help participate in answering questions and trying to steer things along.”
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., a member of Thune’s leadership team, said Trump-Thune conversations are frequent, “intentional,” and aimed at results.
“It’s pretty much serious all the time. I think he respects John’s ability to get stuff done, and I think John respects that he’s the president and he’s making the decisions and leans on him. I think they lean on each other,” she said.
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The final version of the Senate megabill’s tax section could be released as soon as Friday, a moment that will shift Trump and Thune’s alliance into its highest gear.
Trump has trained much of his Washington focus on the Capitol in recent weeks as he elevates the party-line bill into a second-term legacy play, as well as the centerpiece of his party’s midterm campaign.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday suggests that Republicans may have more work to do to sell the megabill, which was viewed unfavorably by 57% of independents. But Republican leaders are aligning firmly behind it.
“It’s 1,000 pages of things Republicans have fought for for a decade or more,” said the White House official.
The official dismissed talk about cutting any of Trump’s priorities: “There are a lot of down-dais members wishcasting about this. The reality is the administration and the leadership are united in pursuing a bill that fulfills the campaign the president ran on.”
Given that Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., opposes the bill’s debt ceiling increase, the White House sees a maximum of 52 Senate votes for the bill. That would require winning over the disparate wings of the Senate GOP, including moderate Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine as well as the much larger conservative bloc.
Trump has demonstrated acumen with the latter, prodding conservatives in both chambers to advance his agenda despite worries over the deficit. He shored up the party’s right flank in recent days by personally engaging conservatives like Sens. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis.
Trump’s “involvement will be outcome-determinative. I think this whole dustup with Elon probably makes passage of the bill more likely,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.
Vice President JD Vance met with Ron Johnson on Tuesday to go over the senator’s deficit concerns, while Trump prodded him to be more positive about the legislation in a meeting with the Senate Finance Committee. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso of Wyoming said there was a “positive” change after that confab.
“We’re on final approach and we’re going to land the plane,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, a member of the Finance Committee.
On the other end of the spectrum, Collins met privately with Thune and Crapo on Wednesday afternoon. She, Murkowski, and McConnell are less susceptible to pressure from the president than most other Republican senators; Collins said in an interview that she’s talked to “people at the White House and obviously John Thune, but also committee chairs” in seeking to improve the bill.
But when it comes to votes, she said: “I always make my own decisions.”
Burgess’s view
I had my doubts about how the Trump-Thune partnership would work out, given Trump’s past attacks on Thune — as well as the way Trump would publicly prod McConnell and other senators during his first term.
But other than Trump urging Thune to consider recess appointments, a request that dissolved after the majority leader filled Trump’s Cabinet, there’s been no public friction between the two despite plenty of potential flashpoints.
Any hiccups on the tax cuts bill over the next two weeks still would play poorly at the White House. The biggest obstacle for Trump and Thune’s relationship may prove to be new Russia sanctions, which currently boast overwhelming support in the Senate even as Trump tries to stave off a vote that would get ahead of him on foreign policy.
Room for Disagreement
Although Trump’s natural lane is with conservatives and Thune’s with moderates, there are some signs of crossover between the two.
Scott, who leads the conservative bloc in the Senate, said he’s talking to both Trump and Thune (whom he challenged for GOP leader last year). He said he’s “optimistic” about clinching a final deal.