View / South Africa’s law and order test

South Africa is heading into a high-stakes stretch where a series of interconnected, anti-corruption efforts will land almost on top of each other. For a country that insists it takes the law seriously, the coming weeks represent the closest thing to a live-fire test.

For one, the Madlanga Commission — set up to investigate whether criminal syndicates and political actors have burrowed into the police, intelligence, and prosecutorial services — is due to submit its interim report at the end of May. The fallout from the public hearings has already produced institutional embarrassment: A police minister was suspended; a national force commissioner is facing criminal charges; procurement networks have been exposed as not just irregular, but organized-crime adjacent. The commission’s report goes to President Cyril Ramaphosa, who will have to decide if accountability still dies in the filing cabinet, as has been the case with past commissions.

Then comes the Constitutional Court’s “Phala Phala” judgment, a ruling — expected within two weeks — that will clarify whether parliament acted lawfully when it declined to pursue an impeachment inquiry into Ramaphosa over the 2020 foreign currency theft at his farm. Though the court won’t decide guilt or innocence, its decision could cause a political earthquake that will destabilize the already fragile coalition government.

Each process is significant on its own. Together, they amount to a full-scale credibility test of South Africa’s rule-of-law architecture. Ramaphosa had pledged to do away with the “state capture” that was rampant under his predecessor Jacob Zuma. But how much has really changed? Can the country’s institutions enforce rules even when the stakes are high and the names are powerful? The questions go to the heart of the frustration expressed by business leaders such as Sim Tshabalala, Standard Bank’s boss, who warned just this month at Semafor World Economy that South Africa’s anemic economic growth was down to the state’s basic inability to uphold the rule of law.

South Africa says it wants to be a rules-based, reform-driven economy. The next few weeks will offer it a chance to make good on that promise — under pressure, and with investors the world over watching.