With prediction-market bets soaring on everything from what MrBeast will say during his next YouTube video to what Apple will unveil at its next event, the risk that corporate employees use insider information to bet on Kalshi and Polymarket is growing. But it seems companies — like government regulation — haven’t kept up.
Semafor reached out to more than 100 companies, law firms, banks, PR shops, and hedge funds, and found that few had explicit rules around prediction markets. Others, like Google — whose 2025 Year in Search headlines appear to have been front-run by someone who knew the numbers ahead of time — had no comment.
Some exceptions: OpenAI recently updated its company policy to clearly ban employees from using confidential info to bet on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi — and then fired a worker who violated it. Ditto for MrBeast’s holding company, which instituted a similar policy and put an employee on leave after some Kalshi insider trading drama. United Airlines said its ethics rules don’t explicitly mention prediction platforms but do “prohibit using your position for your personal gain,” which would apply to Polymarket and Kalshi profits.
If you’re reading this and would like to look front-footed on the largest corporate scandal about to hit your company, reach out.
