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In today’s edition: Trump tariffs, MAGA index funds, and AI catches counterfeiters. ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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November 26, 2024
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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Hi, and welcome back to Semafor Business.

The Bessent bounce was short-lived. The market calm that greeted the president-elect’s mainstream pick for Treasury Secretary has been replaced by jitters as the MAGA economy comes into focus.

New tariff threats tanked Mexican and Canadian currencies. Oil stocks fell on Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” plan. Treasury yields are rising because investors think the president-elect’s policies will be inflationary enough to muck up the Federal Reserve’s easing plans. (That’s tough to square with Trump’s preference for, and promises of, low interest rates.)

In other words, Trump’s plans are deliberately designed to juice an economy that the Fed just spent 18 months de-juicing. Investors will now try to figure out how to capitalize on it.

Today’s story is about one of them. Read on for that scoop, plus AI arms the Lacoste police.

And some exciting news about our live journalism. David Rubenstein, Ken Griffin, Penny Pritzker, and Henry Kravis will co-chair the advisory board for Semafor’s 2025 World Economy Summit. A preview of that below, and a reminder to mark your calendars for April.

We’ll be off Thursday for the holiday. Happy Thanksgiving, and thanks to our readers and tipsters for another year.

Buy/Sell
Scott Bessent speaks at the National Conservative Conference in Washington, DC
Dominic Gwinn/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

➚ BUY: 3-3-3. Treasury pick Scott Bessent’s economic plan calls for 3% annual growth, cutting budget deficits to 3% of GDP, and increasing US oil production by three million barrels a day.

➘ SELL: 3-on-3. A top Trump aide asked Bessent to invest $10 million in a 3-on-3 basketball league and pay him $30,000 a month in exchange for boosting his candidacy for the Treasury job, The Washington Post reported. Bessent declined.

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The Tape

Musk is worth a record $350B… and has a new enemy… Wells Fargo will get out of Fed jail… Qualcomm won’t buy Intel… Star bond trader charged with fraud… Trump looks to appoint AI czar… Granny Shots ETF surges…

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Semafor Stat

Share of Americans surveyed by NerdWallet who said they still haven’t paid off credit card bills from last year’s holiday shopping. Consumer spending has powered the post-pandemic recovery — “resiliency” is Wall Street’s favorite word these days — but delinquency rates are rising.

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Liz Hoffman

The S&P 500 “without the woke sh*t”

THE SCOOP

Investors have been scrambling to keep up with the US president-elect, including some capitalizing on the political moment, testing how long the Trump trade will last.

One of the latest examples: Described in a recent pitch to prospective venture investors as “an S&P 500 fund without the woke sh*t,” the Azoria Meritocracy ETF will shun companies that use diversity quotas in hiring or promotion.

The fund is a bet on the Trump economy and the broader backlash to diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts that the president-elect tapped into on his way to victory. It will launch early next year under the ticker SPXM, said Azoria’s co-founder James Fishback. (MAGA is already taken.)

“The country just wholeheartedly rejected DEI affirmative action,” he said in an interview. “We’re going to deliver that mandate to the private sector. These practices are not just unethical but bad business.”

Fishback is a 29-year-old college dropout turned Wall Street trader whom Vivek Ramaswamy, himself a pioneer in the anti-woke investment war, has called “a major Gen Z star in our pro-American movement.” Ramaswamy and Elon Musk are now leading Trump’s government efficiency effort.

Fishback is best known for a bizarre and ongoing fight with his former employer, David Einhorn’s hedge fund, Greenlight Capital. What began as a spat over Fishback’s title and contributions to Greenlight’s investment returns escalated into dueling lawsuits and online trolling that has bemused Wall Street since the spring. The dispute is now in arbitration.

Azoria is finalizing a roughly $25 million venture round, people familiar with the matter said. Fishback declined to name its financial backers but said they include “two prominent conservative-minded California venture capitalists” and several family offices.

James Fishback

The fund is playing for a slice of the $16 trillion that’s invested in funds that mirror the S&P 500. It will buy all the stocks in the index except for companies that use racial or gender quotas in hiring, promotions, or pay decisions, which Fishback said will disqualify about two dozen stocks.

“But we won’t give up on these companies,” he said. The fund will launch public campaigns and seek to engage behind the scenes to pressure companies to drop their DEI policies. He’s planning an accompanying podcast and livestreams on X, leaning into the wave of very online retail investors whose rightward leanings have been sharpened over the past year.

“We’ll make our case in the marketplace of ideas,” he said. “We’re also going to make some noise.”

Fishback said he’ll unveil his first corporate target at a Mar-a-Lago event next week.

There are already a handful of ideologically conservative S&P 500 trackers. They’ve attracted little money and charge high fees. The America First ETF, which invests in the 150 companies whose employees or corporate PACs have donated the most to Republican candidates, has $23 million in assets, charges 24 times what BlackRock charges for its S&P 500 fund, and has performed slightly worse than the index this year.

Read on for what Trump’s reelection means for the MAGA economy. →

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Puts and Takes

Trump vowed steep new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, showing that he plans to wield his anti-globalist agenda against allies as well as adversaries. The Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and Chinese yuan all fell sharply against the US dollar. (The view from Toronto: “Here we go again.”) Treasury bonds fell, too, as investors worry tariffs will increase prices and complicate the Fed’s path to lower interest rates.

On the other side of the inflation ledger is Trump’s plan to boost oil production, which would lower prices. But energy companies — some of Trump’s biggest donors — don’t want it. Oil and gas drillers learned their lesson in the 2010s, when they spent heavily on new wells, driving down both oil and share prices.

“Our stocks will be absolutely crushed if we start growing our production the way Trump is talking about it,” one executive told The Wall Street Journal. It’s already started:

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World Economy Summit

Carlyle Co-Chairman David Rubenstein, Citadel Founder and CEO Ken Griffin, former US Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker, and KKR Co-Chairman Henry Kravis will serve as co-chairs of Semafor’s World Economy Summit on April 23-25, 2025, in Washington, D.C.

The third annual event will bring together US cabinet officials, global finance ministers, central bankers, and Fortune 500 CEOs for conversations that cut through the political noise to dive into the most pressing issues facing the world economy.

Join the waitlist for more information and access to priority registration. →

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Detect
The Lacoste logo on red fabric
Wikimedia Commons

If the crocodile’s eyes are wonky, it’s a knockoff.

A French AI company has developed an image recognition model that can identify fake consumer goods after being trained on thousands of images of genuine articles. It says the technology can police the counterfeit black market that accounts for an estimated 2.5% of global commerce.

Vrai AI’s first corporate customer is Lacoste, whose iconic crocodile logo makes it a soft target. An off-brand shade of green, an over-rotated eyeball, and stitches that are spaced too far apart can all trip the company’s AI sensors. Vrai AI says its technology is 99.7% accurate and can distinguish normal manufacturing variance — even machines can’t make every logo identically — from fakes.

Read on for what Vrai AI says it can do for deadly counterfeit medicines. →

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Semafor Spotlight
A graphic that says “A great read from Semafor Media” A microphone.
Jonathan Farber/Unsplash

Corporate executives have tasked their handlers with the job of transforming them into podcast-friendly figures by seeking out eclectic YouTubers and right-leaning online comic chat show hosts who can spread their message, Semafor’s Max Tani and Ben Smith reported. The shift is an acknowledgement that the public relations business has at times been slow to prepare itself for a world in which mainstream news outlets aren’t the only ones influencing public opinion.

To read more on the post-election media landscape, subscribe to Semafor’s Media newsletter. →

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