Africa

1. A new hope
2. Deepening deficit
3. Climate finance conundrum
4. Food poisoning anger
5. UK’s Africa overhaul
6. Starlink hits pause

Also, what climate modeling in the Sahara tells us about the future.

Hello! Welcome to Semafor Africa. There’s been a lot of hand-wringing over the last 24 months about the state of African democracy. That concern was probably most vociferous last year after a military coup in Niger. It was the third coup in quick succession in West Africa’s Sahel region. There had also been complaints from electorates about the veracity and quality of elections and the tensions thereafter, as we see currently in Mozambique.

But there have also been signs that democracy is holding strong in some countries. Notably, Senegal which had a scare but its system responded robustly. But top of mind for everyone this week will be Botswana. It wasn’t just that the ruling Botswana Democratic Party lost power in a landslide for the first time since independence in 1966, but that there has been a seamless transfer of power to the new president, Duma Boko, who was sworn into office on Friday. It was his third attempt at winning the top job.

Botswana isn’t just an example for African democracy though — it is for people everywhere. This includes the United States where I write from on the day of a presidential election. The run-up has been marked by controversy, overwhelmed by billions of dollars, and has elicited real existential fears for the future of democracy in a country that likes to see itself as the ultimate advocate for democracy around the world. Maybe this time, just this once, the US can take a lesson from Botswana.

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Botswana’s president seeks diamonds deal

Botswana’s new president plans to finalize a deal with mining giant De Beers that would guarantee the country a larger share of its raw diamonds.

Duma Boko was sworn in on Friday, hours after his predecessor conceded defeat in the shock result after Wednesday’s election.

Botswana, the world’s leading producer by value of diamonds, owns a 15% stake in De Beers. The government and De Beers hold equal stakes in a joint venture that sells 75% of its diamonds to De Beers. Botswana’s share would rise to 50% over the coming decade under a deal negotiated by former President Mokgweetsi Masisi in 2023, but the agreement is yet to be signed.

“We are an economy that depends on diamonds,” Boko said, claiming talks with De Beers faced collapse under the previous administration.

Boko has vowed to achieve economic growth of 6-8% compared with 2.7% last year and diversify the country’s economy.

— Martin K.N Siele

Angola’s growing budget deficit

Angola’s anticipated budget deficit in 2025 as a share of GDP, according to the finance ministry’s draft budget. The figure represents an increase from this year’s projected 1.46% deficit for Africa’s second-largest oil exporter. The draft budget also anticipates economic growth picking up pace to hit 4.1% in 2025, up from 3.3% this year. The draft budget is based on an oil price of $70 a barrel, with Brent crude prices at $74 as of Monday.

Climate mitigation vs adaptation

Multilateral financiers of climate change projects should pay more attention to adaptation than mitigation, a new study suggests. A review of more than 2,500 projects funded by the World Bank between 2000 and 2024 found that 58% of the $177 billion spent on those projects was for mitigation while adaptation projects received 42%, according to California-based Breakthrough Institute. Researchers said the allocation for mitigation in low-income African countries is disproportionate, since those countries are low carbon emitters and as such are more in need of projects that address the impact of emissions from elsewhere. “The current allocation of climate finance risks pushing low-income, low-emitting countries further into debt for projects that don’t meet their most urgent needs,” said Vijaya Ramachandran, a lead researcher on the study.

Deadly food poisoning sparks xenophobic looting in South Africa

JOHANNESBURG — A spate of deaths in South Africa following outbreaks of food poisoning have sparked violence directed at African migrant shopkeepers.

Armed mobs have in recent weeks looted migrant-owned shops mostly run by Somalis whom they accuse of selling products responsible for the outbreaks, forcing the closure of many stores, and killing at least one shopkeeper.

The anger threatens to spark broader xenophobic unrest in Africa’s most industrialized economy. The country was rocked by xenophobic riots in 2008 and 2015.

In a high profile outbreak, six children died from food poisoning after reportedly eating food bought from a migrant-owned, informal grocery store in Soweto, Johannesburg, on Oct. 6, 2024.

Just over two weeks later, seven children were hospitalized after falling ill from food allegedly bought from a migrant-owned spaza shop in KwaZulu-Natal province, more than 600 kilometers away from Johannesburg.

Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi said toxicology reports “unequivocally” showed the children in Soweto died as a result of Terbufos ingestion, a chemical used in agricultural pesticides, herbicides, and insecticides.

UK seeks stronger economic ties

The UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy is set to start a five-month “consultation process” to overhaul Britain’s relations with African countries under the Labour government which came to office four months ago.

Lammy, who is on his first official visit to Africa, said Britain aims to forge economic partnerships with two of the continent’s largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa. On Sunday, he signed a strategic partnership in Nigeria aimed at creating jobs and improving cooperation on security and climate change. He also called for closer trade ties, under an agreement signed earlier this year.

The foreign secretary was due to arrive in South Africa, the UK’s largest African trading partner, on Tuesday. He is expected to sign a new trade deal aimed at boosting South African exports.

“Growth is the core mission of this government and will underpin our relationships in Nigeria, South Africa and beyond,” said Lammy.

— Alexis Akwagyiram

Starlink pauses new sign-ups in Africa

Elon Musk’s internet service provider Starlink is halting new sign-ups in Africa, citing a demand surge in the continent’s biggest cities.

“Starlink is working to increase Internet capacity in dense urban areas in Africa as fast as possible,” Musk wrote on X, though adding that the company retained “significant capacity outside of city centers.”

The pause means Starlink kits will be temporarily unavailable for purchase. That appears to be the case in Kenya’s capital Nairobi and other counties, according to local media.

Since launching in Nigeria last year, Starlink’s Africa presence has grown to 15 countries. It added Botswana and Ghana in August.

In June, Kenya’s telecoms regulator ranked Starlink as the 10th largest internet service provider with 0.5% market share, or about 8,000 subscribers. Starlink has more than 23,000 users in Nigeria.

— Alexander Onukwue

Deals

🇿🇦 South African e-commerce company Takealot is piloting a delivery program in townships, beginning in the Mpumalanga province where it is set to deploy 1,000 drivers.

🌍 Standard Chartered bank and British International Investment inked a $350 million pact to fund the trade finance needs of businesses in Africa and South Asia.

🇿🇦 South African investors Phatisa, Masimong Group, and Sabvest Capital sold their combined 100% ownership of chemicals producer Rolfes Holdings to pan-African agriculture inputs distributor Solevo Group.

🇳🇦 Coca Cola is building a new $50 million line in its Namibia plant that will produce 27,000 bottles per hour, raising the plant’s output capacity by 30%.

Tech

🇳🇬 US startup investor Techstars closed its accelerator program in Lagos, having invested $2.4 million in about two dozen startups.

🇰🇪 The Communications Authority of Kenya said it will withdraw licenses from 200 firms, including that of the now defunct Kwese TV floated by the Strive Masiyiwa-owned telecom group Econet.

Commodities

🇬🇭 Ghana’s cocoa farmers are hoarding beans following remarks by Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia — a presidential candidate in the Dec. 7 elections — that the government would raise prices for farmers. The West African nation is the world’s second largest cocoa producer.

Security

🇹🇩 Chad’s interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby on Sunday announced plans to withdraw from the multinational security force whose troops serve Lake Chad Basin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, saying it had failed in its task of tackling insurgent groups.

Mining

🇸🇱 Sierra Leonean private miner FG Gold received a $20 million equity investment from the Angolan government’s sovereign wealth fund for its Baomahun gold project — a 125 sq. km commercial gold mine about 200 km east of the capital, Freetown.

🇹🇿 Tanzanian mining firm Pula Group sued South African billionaire Patrice Motsepe and his associate companies for $195 million for allegedly breaching a non-compete contract when it invested in Australia’s Evolution Energy Minerals, located next to Pula’s graphite project. Motsepe denied any breach.

A new climate modeling study suggests the potential return of vegetation growth to the Sahara desert due to climate change in Africa could significantly alter climates in the Northern Hemisphere.

The study, published in Climates of the Past, simulates the middle holocene period, 5,000 to 11,000 years ago as recent reports highlight increased vegetation in the desert (pictured).

Increased humidity across Africa, due to stronger monsoons in the Northern Hemisphere, is believed to have enabled the growth of vegetation in the Sahara thousands of years ago. This drove changes in atmospheric circulation that subsequently resulted in cooler and wetter summers in northern, central and eastern Europe and eastern North America. It also meant warmer and drier summers in the eastern Mediterranean, northern Africa and polar North America. The scientists’ model suggests these changes 5,000 years ago could be repeated in the future.

Washington is quietly discussing backup plans should American chip maker Intel’s financial situation continue to deteriorate, as first reported by Semafor’s Liz Hoffman and Reed Albergotti. In the high-stakes chips race between the US and China, “the question is whether the government — hampered by divisive politics — can produce the next Intel,” Albergotti noted.

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— Yinka, Alexis, Alexander Onukwue, Martin Siele, and Muchira Gachenge.