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Global powers scale back their ambitions for US trade deals, researchers raised fears of millions of͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
cloudy Kyiv
sunny Damascus
thunderstorms Bangkok
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July 1, 2025
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The World Today

  1. US tariff talks scaled back
  2. Ukraine-EU trade deal
  3. Death toll of US aid cuts
  4. Syria sanctions ended
  5. Bukele deal hampers probe
  6. Thai court suspends PM
  7. Apple mulls AI deal
  8. Google bets on fusion
  9. Sweltering sporting events
  10. Luckin opens in NYC

Amazon’s robot workforce, and ‘one of the darkest children’s films ever made.’

1

US tariff talks scaled back

Global powers scaled down their ambitions for trade deals with Washington, barely a week before President Donald Trump’s tariff reprieve expires. The European Union looks likely to accept a universal 10% import tariff, but wants exemptions on major exports including alcohol, cars, and pharmaceuticals, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, India is expected to sign an interim trade deal with the US in order to protect the South Asian nation’s politically sensitive agricultural exports, the Financial Times reported. The White House itself is backing off its initial promises to reshape the global trading system, and is instead settling for a “narrower, piecemeal plan,” the FT said, before a 90-day suspension of Trump’s “Liberation Day” duties expires.

For more from Trump’s Washington, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics briefing. →

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2

EU reaches new Ukraine trade deal

The European Union agreed a new trade deal with Ukraine, with the war-hit country lowering tariffs on food imports as the bloc seeks to appease its powerful agricultural lobby. The EU abolished tariffs and quotas on exports to Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion, but Eastern European states fielded protests from farmers who complained their markets were being flooded. The new agreement attempts to support Kyiv while mollifying neighbors. Despite the deal, and NATO’s recent agreement to focus on deterring Russia, Ukraine’s outlook is bleak, the Financial Times’ chief foreign-affairs commentator warned: Analysts say the country’s battlefield position is deteriorating, and while Moscow’s forces could become exhausted within a year, for Ukraine that timescale may be shorter.

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3

Millions at risk from US aid cuts

Washington’s foreign aid cuts could lead to an additional 14 million deaths by 2030 as countries scramble to make up for the sudden, massive shortfall. According to a report in The Lancet, up to a third of those premature deaths would be of children, with sub-Saharan Africa likely to be hardest hit. US humanitarian assistance has plunged by around 80% since billionaire Elon Musk — who as a White House aide oversaw drastic budget cuts — boasted of feeding aid agency USAID “into the wood chipper.” The abrupt cuts have already led to hundreds of thousands of deaths, according to one estimate, with one expert telling the BBC that further reductions would wipe out “two decades of progress in health among vulnerable populations.

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4

Trump ends most Syria sanctions

US President Donald Trump moved to end most sanctions on Syria, part of a wider effort to rehabilitate the war-torn country and reduce upheaval in the Middle East. Syria has been under some level of US sanctions since 1979, with more sweeping ones imposed in 2011 in response to dictator Bashar al-Assad’s crackdown on protests. But a December revolution ended the Assad family’s rule, and the former Islamist militant who leads the new government has sought new investment and trade links, which Gulf states in particular have been quick to offer. But the transition has not been bloodless: Communities associated with the old regime have been targeted for massacres by fighters linked to the country’s new leaders, a sign that Syria remains dangerously polarized.

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5

Bukele deal hampers US probe

Nayib Bukele and Donald Trump.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

US President Donald Trump’s plan to deport gang leaders to El Salvador risks undermining a long-running probe into corruption in the Central American nation. US prosecutors have for years investigated alleged deals between Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele and crime bosses which saw gangs promise to halt violence in exchange for bribes. Now Bukele, who has flaunted an “iron fist” alliance with Trump, is attempting to have the gang leaders repatriated to prevent them from testifying, offering to house prisoners in El Salvador in exchange. At home, however, Bukele’s popularity has slipped on concerns of “grotesque corruption,” The Economist reported. “Sooner or later, the consequences of having made deals with gangs will catch up with Bukele,” a prominent Salvadoran journalist wrote.

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6

Thai court suspends PM

Thailand’s prime minister.
Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

Thailand’s prime minister was suspended over a leaked phone conversation with Cambodia’s former strongman leader, intensifying the countries’ diplomatic crisis. The ruling by Thailand’s top court piles further pressure on Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s government: The premier held only a slim parliamentary majority even before the leaked call, in which she referred to Hun Sen as “uncle” and criticized a Thai military leader amid a border row with Cambodia. Bangkok has since been convulsed by protests against her government, and a legal petition has demanded her resignation. The standoff encapsulates many of Thailand’s long-running political fissures: Shinawatra’s family has dominated its politics for decades, but has faced opposition from its powerful military, courts, and groups tied to the monarchy.

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7

Apple mulls AI deal

Apple CEO Tim Cook.
Carlos Barria/File Photo/Reuters

Apple is reportedly considering using Anthropic or OpenAI’s artificial intelligence models to power its Siri chatbot, in a potential acknowledgment that its AI progress has stalled. The iPhone maker has asked to train versions of Claude and ChatGPT that could run on Apple infrastructure for testing, according to Bloomberg. Siri “felt like something out of science fiction” when released in 2011, Bloomberg BusinessWeek wrote in May, allowing users to talk to their phones in natural language, but it has fallen behind in the genAI era, and its recent work has been underwhelming. Switching to a rival’s model would be “an acknowledgment that the company is struggling to compete in… the most important new technology in decades.”

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8

Google bets on fusion

A Google logo.
Stephen Lam/File Photo/Reuters

Google signed a deal to buy power generated through nuclear fusion, only the second such agreement to use the as-yet-unviable technology. Commonwealth Fusion Systems plans to open a demonstration reactor in Massachusetts in 2027 and create a commercial plant, ready to supply Google’s data centers with power, by the early 2030s. Nuclear fusion works by squashing small atoms together, as occurs in the center of stars, rather than splitting big atoms like traditional nuclear plants; it could provide limitless clean energy with minimal radioactive waste, but has yet to generate more power than is put in, despite decades of work. Recent progress has been promising, though, and Google’s deal represents a bet that the technology is close to reality.

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9

Sweltering sporting events

Fogini and Alcaraz at Wimbledon.
Fogini and Alcaraz at Wimbledon. Stephanie Lecocq/Reuters

Sporting events on either side of the Atlantic sweltered in record-breaking temperatures. Monday was the hottest Wimbledon opening day ever; one fan collapsed during defending champion Carlos Alcaraz’s match, with the tennis superstar rushing over to offer his bottle of water. And in the US, the unloved soccer Club World Cup has faced dangerous temperatures: Dozens of spectators needed hospital treatment. A players’ union called it a “wake-up call” ahead of next year’s (actual) men’s World Cup, also in North America, warning of the risk to players as climate change intensifies even formerly temperate countries’ summers. One academic called for the 2026 final to be played at 9am, which would be unpopular with the sport’s core European audience.

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10

Luckin opens in NYC

A Lucking Coffee branch.
Flickr Creative Commons photo/Choo Yut Shing/CC BY 2.0

Luckin Coffee, the cut-price chain that has effectively demolished Starbucks in China, opened its first US branches. The fast-growing Chinese firm, known for its stripped-back stores and extensive selection of cheap drinks, overtook Starbucks in terms of outlets in China in 2019, the same year an accounting scandal saw it delisted from the Nasdaq. The US brand’s share of the Chinese market has fallen from more than a third to 14% in five years, and is reportedly considering selling its China operations, whereas Luckin’s two New York branches are its first outside Asia: Flagship’s Prashant recommends the coconut latte, which he bought several of — each day — on a recent trip to Beijing.

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Flagging
  • Denmark assumes the rotating presidency of the European Council.
  • US President Donald Trump is expected to visit a new migrant detention center in Florida, dubbed “Alligator Alcatraz.”
  • Thousands of Muslims gather in Bosnia as part of the Ajvatovica pilgrimage, the largest event of its kind in Europe.
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Semafor Stat
1 million +

The number of robots in Amazon’s warehouses, a figure that is fast approaching the number of workers there. The e-commerce giant has spent years automating its facilities, with about 75% of the company’s global orders now being assisted by robots. The move has in turn resulted in the US’ second-largest employer slowing hiring, with the number of Amazon employees per warehouse falling by more than a quarter. “They’re one step closer to that realization of the full integration of robotics,” an expert told The Wall Street Journal.

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Semafor Recommends

Return to Oz, directed by Walter Murch. This sequel to 1939’s The Wizard of Oz is 40 years old, and while it flopped upon release, it has become a cult classic: It is, Natasha Tripney wrote in the BBC, “one of the darkest children’s films ever made,” drawing closely from L Frank Baum’s surreal books. Dorothy starts out by facing electroshock therapy; later, she encounters a room of disembodied heads and meets bizarre creatures with wheels for feet. It is hard to imagine a children’s film “so wilfully strange and dark” being made now, said Tripney, but if it had been “sunnier, smoother and safer, we might not be talking about it today.” Stream Return to Oz where you are.

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Semafor Spotlight
ChatGPT illustration.
Florence Lo/Reuters

Roughly 1.8 billion consumers have used AI tools, and a third of them do so daily. But according to a Menlo Ventures survey, almost all of them are using the products for free, Semafor’s Rachyl Jones reported.

That leaves a huge amount of untapped revenue for AI companies that must pay off hundreds of billions in capital expenditures to build out their AI footprints. But there are a few avenues they can tap to convert users, said Menlo’s ​​Shawn Carolan, who invests in consumer tech.

For more on the the AI frontier, subscribe to Semafor Tech. →

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