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Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ raises US debt fears, AI sparks a hiring spree and a wider backlash, an͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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June 30, 2025
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The World Today

  1. US debt growth fears
  2. Digital trade negotiations
  3. Meta’s AI hiring spree
  4. AI jobs backlash
  5. Europe hit by heat wave
  6. China widens military purge
  7. Iran open to nuclear talks
  8. Pro-Bolsonaro protests
  9. Starlink looks to Africa
  10. France’s new smoking ban

The London Review of Substacks, and a Victorian-era delicacy at Wimbledon.

1

Worries over growing US debt

A chart showing US government debt as a percentage of GDP

A mammoth spending program being debated by the US Senate this week will swell the country’s debt and threaten its financial standing, analysts warned. Some 20 cents of every dollar taken in tax revenue is now allocated to debt servicing, and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is forecast to grow the deficit by a further $3.3 trillion over a decade. More than 90% of economists in a Financial Times survey said they were concerned about the haven status of dollar-denominated assets, in part because of the planned fiscal expansion. Republicans are wavering on the issue: One GOP lawmaker told Semafor the Senate was deadlocked, while former presidential adviser Elon Musk was more pointed, calling the plan “utterly insane.”

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2

Digital taxes at center of trade talks

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Kent Nishimura/Reuters

Digital taxes are proving a stumbling block in Washington’s negotiations with major trading partners. Canada said it would rescind its digital services tax in order to restart talks after they were canceled by US President Donald Trump, who described the tax policy as a “direct and blatant attack.” Washington views digital taxes as non-tariff barriers which disproportionately target US tech giants, and the issue has also proved a sticking point with the European Union: Brussels has indicated it may soften the implementation of its own digital rules, but has faced pushback from European parliamentarians as well as its own competition chief.

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3

Meta looks to poach AI talent

Mark Zuckerberg
Carlos Barria/File Photo/Reuters

Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly put together a secret list of top artificial intelligence engineers he hopes to recruit and is willing to spend hundreds of millions on hiring. Meta’s Llama AI model underperformed expectations at its April launch, and Zuckerberg wants to catch up. The world of ultra-elite AI talent is small, and Zuckerberg is already picking off big names, The Wall Street Journal reported: Meta recently recruited four experienced OpenAI researchers and apparently offered $100 million pay packages to some names on his list. Zuckerberg is looking to raise $29 billion to fund his AI push, the Financial Times reported.

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4

AI backlash intensifies

An AI advert in London.
Chris J. Ratcliffe/Reuters

A backlash against artificial intelligence is gathering pace among workers after major companies warned the technology would take away jobs. Amazon’s CEO recently said “we will need fewer people,” while Duolingo, Klarna, Salesforce, and Shopify have said similar things, and the tech industry is laying off staff despite strong economic performance. AI is reported to be writing around 50% of some tech firms’ code, and one AI boss said half of entry-level white-collar jobs could soon be lost. There is now an “ambient animosity” toward the technology, a tech writer told WIRED. A series of lawsuits are challenging AI’s use of copyrighted material and its use in creative processes, and US unions are increasingly mobilizing against robotics in physical work.

For more on the fast-paced world of AI, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech briefing. →

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5

Europe gripped by heat wave

A chart showing Europe’s average monthly surface temperature by year

A dangerous heat wave gripping Europe led to record temperatures and weather warnings across the continent. France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain are experiencing the most extreme conditions, caused by a high-pressure “heat dome” over Western Europe, with southwest Spain suffering a record 114.8°F (46°C). Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent, partly due to its proximity to the Arctic — the polar region is seeing temperatures rise four times faster than global averages — and, paradoxically, to its success in reducing pollution: Particulates in the atmosphere masked some of the warming effect of carbon emissions, and as the air has become cleaner, that masking has been reduced.

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6

China widens military purge

Xi Jinping
Maxim Shemetov/File Photo/Reuters

Chinese leader Xi Jinping extended his purge of the upper echelons of China’s armed forces. A senior official was removed from the country’s top military command body, the Central Military Commission, while the navy chief of staff and a top nuclear scientist were fired from China’s legislature: In all, eight officials were removed, more than a dozen generals and defense industry figures have been investigated for corruption, and the vice-chair of the CMC has not been seen publicly for months. Xi once sought to single out officials to deter graft in the wider ranks — killing the chicken to scare the monkeys, as Beijing put it. Now, one analyst said, he is “killing the monkeys.”

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7

Iran open to talks

People at a funeral procession in Iran
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters

Iran said it was willing to engage in discussions over its nuclear program, but only if Washington rules out further attacks. Israel and the US struck Iran’s uranium enrichment sites this month, although the extent of the damage is unclear. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told the BBC that Tehran wanted to return to negotiations over its atomic program, which had restarted before the Israeli-US raids. The attacks have sparked paranoia within the regime: Security forces have arrested hundreds of alleged Israeli spies and dissidents, The Wall Street Journal reported, and at least six people have been executed since the war began. Locals fear that the crackdown is an effort to “silence dissent and tighten control,” according to the BBC.

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8

Pro-Bolsonaro protest in São Paulo

A chart showing Lula’s approval ratings

Thousands of supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro demonstrated in São Paulo against his Supreme Court prosecution. Already banned from running for office for eight years, the rightist leader could face up to 12 years in prison if found guilty of having led a coup plot. Bolsonaro has vowed to run in next year’s election, claiming US President Donald Trump will help him overturn his ban, albeit without providing details. Some on the Brazilian right fear Bolsonaro’s chokehold on his party may prevent it from winning next year’s election, despite the growing unpopularity of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whose economic mismanagement and support for Russia have sent his approval ratings to a record low.

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9

Starlink looks to expand in Africa

A chart showing the share of the global population with access to the internet

Elon Musk’s Starlink will invest $113 million to provide satellite internet services in South Africa as it looks to increase its presence on the continent. Under the proposed deal, 16 countries could gain access to Starlink’s internet services, Business Day reported. But questions remain: Musk has rejected giving up equity in order to meet Pretoria’s Black empowerment rules, which the billionaire has called “openly racist,” and the government is yet to make a decision on whether to award Starlink an operating license. The expansion of satellite internet nevertheless means many in Africa may skip traditional broadband internet services entirely in favor of satellite connections: Just 36% of sub-Saharan Africa’s population has internet access, roughly half the global average.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa briefing. →

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10

France bans smoking outdoors

A beachgoer holds a cigarette
Stephane Mahe/Reuters

France formally banned smoking in beaches, parks, and other public outdoor spaces. The country’s tobacco-loving reputation is outdated: Paris implemented smoking restrictions early, barring cigarettes on public transport back in 1976, and cigarette consumption peaked in 1985. Smoking is now banned in all indoor public spaces and fewer than 25% of French adults smoke daily, a record low. The new ban is explicitly intended to protect children from secondhand smoke, part of a wider global trend toward protectiveness, as age restrictions come into place on porn and social media. It is another nail in the coffin of the image of the turtleneck-wearing French existentialist mumbling wearily around a Gauloise: “What do we have left?” one shopkeeper grumbled to Euronews. “Kale smoothies?”

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Flagging
  • Jury deliberations in Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs’ sex-trafficking trial begin.
  • Germany releases June inflation data.
  • Renowned Nigerian author Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie arrives in Lagos as part of a tour for her new book, Dream Count.
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LRS
The London Review of Substacks

Efficiency gains

A lot of US government work is highly inefficient, says the science reformer Stuart Buck. Federally funded scientists say they spend 44% of their research time on bureaucracy, federal procurement is “broken” and often results in the government buying products that don’t work, and “the Paperwork Reduction Act paradoxically results in endless paperwork.” “Many such cases,” says Buck. “We should have an official effort to address these issues… We could even call it a ‘Department of Government Efficiency.’” As you might be aware, there is one: It is “widely viewed as a failure,” but the basic idea is sound. How could we make it good?

The first step, says Buck, would be taking a long time to deeply understand how each government agency works, so you don’t mistake routine human error or some statistical artifact for fraud. Second, it should focus on high-value reforms, like outdated data systems or software. Third, it should learn from previous attempts to cut red tape — because there have been many, not all of which worked. And importantly, a good DOGE would not mistake things we don’t use for “waste” — like an insurance policy, we hope pandemic preparedness infrastructure and fire departments are never used, but they’re in place in case we need them. The real-world DOGE is a failure, says Buck, because it ignored all of these strictures.

Democracy manifest

Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor shocked pollsters and especially the party’s grandees. The 33-year-old democratic socialist is now a commanding frontrunner for the election itself in November; NYC has elected Republican mayors, but is a liberal city. Suggested explanations for his unexpected win — he was polling at 1% in early surveys — include an unexpected appetite for leftist candidates, Mamdani’s own talents as a candidate, and a terrible campaign by his main opponent Andrew Cuomo.

All of those are likely true to a large extent, says the pollster Nate Silver, but Silver chooses to emphasize a fourth theme: That “the Democratic establishment is out to lunch,” with most of its bigwigs backing Cuomo, “an obviously flawed candidate.” The party made similar mistakes in the past three presidential races, he says; Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris were all “eat-your-spinach” choices, at least partly given the role because it was seen as their “turn.” Mamdani, literally half Cuomo’s age, is a sign that “generational turnover in the Democratic Party is coming whether they like it or not.”

A matter of life and death

“Life is not short exactly,” writes the British lawmaker Neil O’Brien, “but it’s definitely not long enough.” His family experienced loss this year, and it has made him consider what matters. He focuses in particular on his children, and seeing things through their eyes. “As all this has been going on,” he says, “they are busy: collecting strawberries, learning to write, singing in their tiny birdlike voices, and generally making a mess wherever they go.”

In particular, he thinks about memory; one recent sadness was an Alzheimer’s diagnosis in the family. “Do we get to choose what we do hang onto?” he asks. The most profound memories of his own parents are the emotional ones: The egg with toast soldiers his mother used to make; the wooden plane his father built him. “If I get to choose,” he says, “I will forget the times our children drove us crazy… I’ll remember instead my son watering the flowers. I will remember lying next to him as he goes to sleep, looking up at the luminous stars his mother put on his bedroom roof. His little breaths lengthening into sleep, and me beside him, stargazing.”

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Semafor Recommends
Flickr Creative Commons photo/Kallu/CC BY-SA 2.0

Strawberries and cream. Wimbledon, the oldest and grandest tennis tournament in the world, begins today in London. It has various traditions: players dressed in white; drinking Pimm’s and lemonade; sunburned British people in straw hats laughing uproariously at pigeons on the court or at someone in the crowd saying “Come on Tim!” to players not called Tim. But perhaps the most venerable is eating strawberries and cream. In Victorian Britain, when Wimbledon began and before the invention of mechanical refrigeration, the dish was a rare luxury; now, even in the All England Club’s insanely expensive environs, you can pick up a punnet for £2.70 ($3.70). In 2024, Wimbledon attendees ate nearly 2 million, according to The Conversation.

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