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Republicans are closer than ever to passing President Donald Trump’s huge party-line tax and spending cuts bill before July 4, as the Senate neared a crucial initial vote late Saturday.
Still, Republicans need 50 of their 53 members to support it — and possibly Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote to clinch the legislation. They’re bracing for a very long weekend, multiple defections, and a razor-thin victory.
“Right now I think we’ll lose three votes on the final bill. And JD will have to break a tie,” said Sen. John Kennedy, R-La.
Still, the legislation is looking far less wobbly than three days ago as Trump is getting increasingly involved in one-on-one whipping of hesitant Republicans, multiple sources told Semafor. He golfed on Saturday with Sens. Rand Paul, R-Ky.; Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.; and Eric Schmitt, R-Mo.; and also met with Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla.; Ron Johnson, R-Wis.; and Katie Britt, R-Ala.
Graham called it a good “bonding experience” for Paul and Trump and predicted the bill would ultimately pass, citing comments from Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Josh Hawley of Missouri said they would support advancing the bill — though Collins said her final vote is contingent on softening its cuts to Medicaid.
Hawley said he would support final passage and that he’d heard that House Speaker Mike Johnson is signaling he can get the bill to Trump’s desk within days to avoid a protracted negotiation.
“We’re trending definitely in the right direction,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla.
The GOP gained momentum for the Senate version of the megabill — which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects will add at least $4 trillion in debt — just before midnight on Saturday. That’s when Graham, chair of the Budget Committee, released new provisions designed to help Republicans have time to read the bill before an initial vote that could come as soon as Saturday afternoon.
The new version of the bill contains harsher phaseouts for Biden-era clean energy credits, a delay in cuts to a provider tax used to fund Medicaid in many states, and a front-loaded $25 billion fund for rural hospitals that are likely to be affected by the bill’s Medicaid cuts.
It will take a long time for those to become law. Senate Democrats, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, are going to force the Senate clerks to read the bill on the floor, adding perhaps a dozen hours to the chamber’s workload.
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said he will not support the legislation unless its approach on Medicaid reverts to the House’s less harsh cuts and said leadership knows “I’m a no.”
Sen. Johnson and Paul have also expressed opposition to the bill, albeit for other reasons: not enough spending cuts and the $5 trillion increase to the debt ceiling, respectively.
Still, a flurry of deals over the last two days has put Republicans much closer to getting Trump a party-line law that he’s eager to promote by Independence Day.
Republicans are hopeful Trump’s meeting with Scott can put him in the “yes” column, although they gave up on Paul long ago and Graham doubted he could support the final product.
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The legislation also contains Sen. Mike Lee’s slimmed-down plan to sell public lands — which has faced some intraparty resistance. The Utah Republican said it still could be stricken from the bill if the nonpartisan parliamentarian finds it violates the bill’s filibuster protections.
But much more likely is that it gets stripped out on the Senate floor. After threatening to vote no on advancing the bill, Sen. Tim Sheehy, R-Mont., met with leadership on Saturday afternoon, and they assured him that it would: “This was unacceptable … we can’t let it go any further.”
Lee said he liked the new bill’s more aggressive cuts to clean energy credits, though he hasn’t decided how he will vote. Johnson, Lee, and Scott had said they could vote as a bloc on the bill.
The pro-clean energy group Protect Our Jobs expanded its $1.1 million national TV ad buy on Saturday to hit Republicans for supporting what it warns will be a “national rate hike” on electricity stemming from those cuts, according to details shared with Semafor.
“Protect Our Jobs is more than doubling our buy to make sure members know that they are supporting a national rate hike,” said a spokesperson for the group. “We are also expanding into other states, such as Ohio and Iowa and going back into congressional districts like Brian Fitzpatrick, Mike Carey, Miller-Meeks, Gabe Evans. More to come. This isn’t over.”
Democrats will get a chance to take aim at Lee’s provisions, and others in the bill that could split the GOP, during an unlimited “vote-a-rama” that could take place overnight Saturday or sometime Sunday if Republicans get over the initial 50-vote hurdle.
Democrats huddled on Saturday afternoon to plot their strategy, which will require picking off four Republicans and keeping unified to change the bill.
Another provision in the huge bill that could get removed on a bipartisan vote: an attempt to stop states from coming up with their own AI regulations.
“I just hate that language,” Hawley said of the AI provision, adding that Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., is leading the effort to strip it.
And Collins still wants structural changes to the bill’s Medicaid cuts before she’ll vote for the final product.
“That’s going to depend on whether the bill is substantially changed,” Collins said. “I will be filing a number of amendments.”
Notable
- A number of battleground-seats House GOP moderates who had opposed quick phaseouts of the clean energy credits were already hit with spending from Protect Our Jobs, per Punchbowl News.
- A full rundown of what made the cut in the bill, as reported by Politico.