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Trump will decide on US action in Iran in two weeks, Russia’s economy minister warns of recession, a͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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June 20, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Trump’s Iran timeline
  2. Iran races to get oil out
  3. EU’s economic stagnation
  4. A Russian recession?
  5. China hacks Russia
  6. TikTok ban extension
  7. X superapp push
  8. Climate risk for banks
  9. UK rejects Alzheimer’s drugs
  10. Pakistan bans ‘black magic’

A rarely seen collection of Picasso’s ceramics is up for auction.

1

Trump’s new Iran timeline

Funeral for those killed in Israeli strikes on Iran, in Qazvin.
Amir Hossein Nazari/Tasnim/WANA via Reuters

US President Donald Trump said he would allow for two weeks of diplomacy before deciding whether to strike Iran. Washington and Tehran are in contact, the White House said Thursday, signaling possible negotiations: The US’ Middle East envoy and Iran’s foreign minister have spoken several times in the last week in a bid to find a diplomatic off-ramp, Reuters reported. The US wants Iran to end uranium enrichment, which Tehran rejects — but the Islamic Republic has reportedly offered flexibility on its nuclear position if Washington pressures Israel to stop the strikes. Israel warned Thursday it would step up its assault after Iran struck an Israeli hospital complex.

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2

Iran rushes to export oil

Iran’s Sharan Oil depot.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters

Iran appears to be rushing to export oil as Israel’s military assault threatens a crucial sector of its economy. Tehran’s oil shipments have spiked in the last week, ensuring continued revenue in case of disruption, while satellite images suggest Iran is also rapidly filling up its storage tanks, sending “as much as possible to the global market while it can,” Bloomberg reported. But fears that a larger conflict involving the US could hamper shipments have caused oil prices to rise in recent days; a new Goldman Sachs estimate puts the geopolitical premium on Brent crude at about $10 per barrel. This conflict “knocks oil out of its complacency,” one analyst said, arguing “the market has been underplaying geopolitical risk.”

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3

Europe’s stagnation threat

Chart showing eurozone annual real GDP growth.

Europe faces economic stagnation if its leaders don’t urgently reverse weakening investment and productivity, the International Monetary Fund warned Thursday. Despite low unemployment and easing inflation, the eurozone is expected to grow just 0.8% this year. Fragmentation across the bloc’s borders is stifling innovation, the IMF said, calling for fewer barriers in the European Union’s single market. A wave of new defense spending will likely help, but Europe still doesn’t have a concrete plan to kickstart economic growth to compete with the US and China, Semafor contributor Hadley Gamble argued: “The continent has gotten so enraged at foreign leaders threatening its borders that it has lost sight of how far it has fallen — and how quickly it must save itself.”

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4

Russia on brink of recession, official says

Chart showing foreign direct investment into Russia since 2015.

Russia is “on the brink” of a recession following three years of war and Western sanctions, the country’s economy minister said Thursday. Maxim Reshetnikov’s warning that “we’re seeing a slowdown” contrasted with more a optimistic reading by Russia’s finance minister, who said the economy is simply cooling, and “summer always follows the cold.” Moscow’s economy has overperformed throughout the Ukraine war, as increased defense spending propped up growth and employment, despite higher inflation. The concerns over cooling come as new data shows direct investment in Russia fell last year to its lowest level since 2001. Chances of an investment revival feel slim, reflected in the poor showing of Western financiers at an economic forum in St. Petersburg this week.

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5

Chinese hackers targeted Russia

A Chinese navy vessel is seen on a giant screen showing news footage about joint army, navy, air and rocket forces drills around Taiwan by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), outside a shopping mall in Beijing.
Florence Lo/Reuters

Chinese government-linked groups have hacked Russian targets for years in search of military secrets, despite the countries’ “no limits” partnership, The New York Times reported. According to cyberanalysts, Chinese actors have sought details on Russian nuclear submarines and the aerospace and defense sectors. Experts say the operations suggest Beijing sees Moscow as a vulnerable target, and wants to use the war in Ukraine as a way to collect information on modern warfare, given China’s lack of real-world experience in that arena. It also suggests the dynamic between the two countries is more complicated than their leaders project: A Russian counterintelligence document obtained by The Times calls China an “enemy” and says Beijing is seeking Russian expertise and technology.

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6

TikTok gets another US lifeline

US President Donald Trump gives a thumbs-up on the White House lawn.
Ken Cedeno/Reuters

US President Donald Trump on Thursday extended the deadline for a TikTok ban by another 90 days, giving the app its third reprieve this year. Under a law passed last year, a US ban was set to take effect the day before Trump took office if TikTok’s Chinese parent company didn’t sell the platform; despite Washington’s previous national security concerns, Trump has recently hailed the app as a potent way to reach young voters. TikTok’s fate has since become entangled in US-China trade talks, though there appears to be little political appetite to force a sale or shut it down. “The president has essentially nullified a law because he doesn’t like it,” a law professor said.

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7

X eyes investment, trade features

Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk listens as US President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans.
Allison Robbert/Pool via Reuters

Elon Musk-owned X is moving closer to becoming a so-called “everything app.” The social media platform, formerly Twitter, will “soon” allow users to make payments, investments, or trades, CEO Linda Yaccarino told the Financial Times. The financial services push, which could also involve the release of an X credit or debit card, is in line with Musk’s vision of making an app similar to China’s WeChat, which is a messaging and social media platform with payment and shopping features. X is looking to bolster its business after a wave of advertisers fled when Musk bought the platform and loosened moderation rules; Yaccarino denied a recent report that X threatened to sue companies if they didn’t buy ads.

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Plug
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Looking for smarter takes on politics, poker, and personal decision-making? Risky Business is a new podcast from journalist-poker pros Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver. With expertise in psychology, data, and high-stakes risk, they break down the odds behind the headlines. Because every choice is a bet. Listen to Risky Business.

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8

ECB embeds climate risk in banks’ reviews

People wade through a flooded street, as the Emilia-Romagna region experiences floods triggered by severe weather, in Lugo, Emilia-Romagna, Italy.
Ciro de Luca/Reuters

The European Central Bank is incorporating climate change into its risk assessments for banks. The ECB’s evaluation process scores banks on factors such as their business models, risk management, and liquidity, to determine whether they are safe lenders and borrowers and whether they pose a danger to the financial system. As the world warms, banks face growing exposure to risks from changing climate patterns. But the ECB is moving faster than other banks, Bloomberg reported: The US Federal Reserve chair recently said climate isn’t “something that we are spending a lot of time and energy on,” while the multinational Basel Committee of major banks recently resisted US pressure to dissolve a task force on climate risk.

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9

UK blocks access to two Alzheimer’s drugs

The UK’s health advisory body deemed that two Alzheimer’s drugs were too expensive to be made available on the National Health Service. Both donanemab and lecanemab are the first treatments shown to slow the disease’s progress; an earlier drug, aducanemab, was controversially approved by US regulators even though no clear clinical benefit was evident. The newer treatments — both of which are available in the US — are pricey, only modestly effective, and have dangerous side effects such as brain bleeds. Patient advocacy groups were disappointed, but one dementia researcher told Science Media Centre that he was “completely in support.” The treatments’ moderate success does add support to the idea that Alzheimer’s is caused by a buildup of unwanted proteins.

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10

Pakistan to outlaw ‘black magic’

A news presenter in Pakistan reads horoscopes.
A news presenter in Pakistan reads horoscopes. Dawn News/YouTube

Pakistan is moving to ban “black magic,” but spiritualists worry that the vaguely defined law will be abused. Spiritual practices are widespread in Pakistan, The New York Times reported: TV anchors read horoscopes on the news and tarot and palmistry are commonplace, despite being declared haram by Islamic scholars. Some spiritualists welcomed the news — one, who apparently channels good energy through a prism at his spiritual center, worries that the field “has been abused by frauds” — but others fear it will lead to crackdowns. Indian states have also passed anti-superstition laws. Fear of the occult is often exploited for material gain. In Kenya, accusations of witchcraft can be used as a means of stealing the alleged witch’s land.

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Flagging

June 20:

  • China publishes an interest rate announcement.
  • The Paris Air Show opens to the general public.
  • 28 Years Later, directed by Danny Boyle, premieres in US theaters.
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Substack Rojak
Semafor “Substack Rojak” graphic.

Rojak is a colloquial Malay word for “eclectic mix,” and is the name for a Javanese dish that typically combines sliced fruit and vegetables with a spicy dressing. In this recurring Flagship feature, we highlight the best newsletter writing from and about Asia.

Toy story

Despite economic gloom in China, a domestic toy store chain has emerged as a global success story. Pop Mart, known for selling trinkets and collectible plastic toys, is now one of China’s best performing stocks — some have called the brand China’s Disney. Its success highlights a “new consumption” trend in China, pulling in luxury-like margins with cheaper goods, Amber Zhang wrote in the Baiguan newsletter. Pop Mart has been especially successful with “blind boxes,” in which the buyer doesn’t know what they’re getting until they open the product. “That Schrödinger mix of surprise and disappointment is the secret that hooks consumers,” Zhang wrote.

Most recently, Pop Mart’s biggest star is Labubu, a genderless, expressionless creature that has become a global juggernaut: Celebrities like David Beckham and Rihanna have their own Labubus — serving as a valuable soft power tool for China — and their resale value has skyrocketed. A cottage industry has emerged to sell clothes for the toys. The product’s “ambiguity makes it universally relatable. With no fixed identity, anyone can see themselves in it.”

K-pop’s not a genre

The K-pop world is fiercely divided over whether the industry has become too “Westernized.” As the genre has achieved global prominence, more acts are releasing songs in English and collaborating with Western artists, leaving some to wonder whether K-pop is “losing its soul” and merely chasing foreign validation. But this discourse ignores that K-pop has always been a hybrid art form, and therefore a global art form, the Idolcast Substack argued.

K-pop’s sound has indeed evolved and widened its audience in recent years, bringing in more Western songwriters and producers. Trying to attain universal appeal has inherently diluted artists’ creativity, the newsletter argues, but that doesn’t necessarily make the genre “Western.” The debate has sparked a broader conversation about what “K-pop” even means: Given its mishmash of influences, one could perceive it not as a genre, but a format defined by who the music caters to — just like classic rock is a radio format aimed at a specific demographic.

Seoul searching

Seoul’s only planned city should be an urbanist’s dream, but it’s turned into a nightmare for residents. Wirye New Town was built starting in 2008 as the first planned development created from scratch within city limits — it features glitzy high rises, car-free promenades, lakeside paths, and ample green space. But more than 10 years after the first move-ins, “homeowners in Wirye are mad as hell,” S.Y. Lee wrote in the transit-focused newsletter S(ubstack)-Bahn. The government has yet to build a direct train connection to Wirye, and while home values initially surged, they have since dropped due to speculative real estate dynamics. Frustrated owners have sued the city and held near-weekly protests.

The debacle holds lessons for the rest of the world, as developers from California to Saudi Arabia eye planned cities. It shows how rail transit is especially crucial for new population centers located near big cities — and how speculative real estate markets can leave homeowners vulnerable.

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Curio
Pablo Picasso, “Pigeon” (1949).
Pablo Picasso, “Pigeon” (1949). Piguet

A collection of rarely seen ceramics created by Pablo Picasso is up for auction in Switzerland. Held in private hands for nearly four decades, seven hand-painted plates and platters — just a few of the thousands he is thought to have fired in the French seaside town of Vallauris between 1947 and 1963 — will be publicly exhibited for the first time at Geneva’s Piguet auction house. Unlike his paintings and sculptures, which are becoming “practically unaffordable” today, Picasso’s ceramics are thought to present a more affordable entry point, Piguet’s director told AFP: “Don’t forget that these are works of art in their own right.”

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Semafor Spotlight
A large US flag is unfurled on the White House lawn as US President Trump and his daughter, Ivanka, observe.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

MAGA loyalists trying to deter President Donald Trump from bombing Iran this week are at a disadvantage: They have only three real Republican allies in Congress, and Trump hasn’t been listening to them, reported Semafor’s David Weigel.

Unconditional surrender — that means I’ve had it,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday as he acknowledged he’s openly wrestling with whether to directly strike Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility. “I give up, no more. Then we go blow up all the nuclear stuff that’s all over the place there.”

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