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In this edition: Trump runs as a defender of democracy, primary voters pick nominees in three more s͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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June 18, 2024
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David Weigel

What ‘democracy’ means to the post-Jan. 6 right

Rebecca Cook/REUTERS

DETROIT – Each Republican who took the stage at The People’s Convention, a three-day summit organized by Turning Point Action to train conservatives on election work, got the same introduction. A dubstep track rattled every tooth in the Huntington Place event center. A ring of cold spark machines shot off sparklers or smoke. The speaker’s name, face, and home state were splashed across Times Square-sized screens.

This was how freshman Missouri Rep. Eric Burlison took the stage on Sunday, to a crowd that had shrunk and quieted down since Donald Trump’s keynote. He got a roar of applause anyway, for promising legislation that would “rescind the subpoenas and withdraw the recommendations of the bogus January 6 select committee.” Jailed or soon-to-be-jailed former Trump aides Steve Bannon, Peter Navarro; people who the movement called “political prisoners” could be freed, before Trump took back the presidency.

“The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing,” said Burlison, quoting philosopher Edmund Burke.

It was one of numerous onstage references to Jan. 6 and its aftermath, a topic that cleaved Trump from many of his fellow Republicans at the time, but has increasingly become an applause line up and down the party. The re-nomination of Trump, who takes the stage at rallies to a tape of the national anthem he recorded with Jan. 6 defendants, has cemented its place.

“Anyone that wants to continue to shame us for January 6 can go to hell,” Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene told the crowd on Friday.

The intervening years have given conservative activists time to build a new folk mythology around the 2020 election and Capitol riot and develop them into a unified message at events like these.

That message: This party, led by Trump, was trying to save democracy.

“We all know what happened to President Trump in 2020,” said Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, not specifying what the “what” was. “It cannot happen again.”

Biden campaign ads, which ran in Michigan during the conference, remind voters of Trump’s effort to subvert the 2020 election based on false claims of fraud, warning that the president of Jan. 6 wants to be a dictator.

The conservative movement has flipped that script. In this one, the 2020 election was clearly stolen, and citizens are being unfairly jailed for saying so. Jan. 6 was a trap for Trump supporters — a “fedsurrection” that Nancy Pelosi could have stopped. The Trump campaign will restore democracy; the prosecutions of Jan. 6 participants, like the conviction of Trump, are attempts to smother it.

“Let’s look at what [Biden] is doing to our democracy right here at home — tearing it apart, trying to take away our right to vote for the candidate of our choosing,” former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard told the convention on Saturday, before Trump spoke.

KNOW MORE

Any debate about this theory of 2020 ended for Republicans last week, when Trump spoke to House and Senate Republicans — his first visit to the Capitol since his supporters stormed it. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who called Trump “practically and morally responsible” for the Capitol riot in 2021 while voting against conviction at his impeachment trial, shook his hand during a meeting with senators and pledged his support.

“No real Republican with any credibility in the party is still blaming him [for Jan. 6],” Ohio Sen. JD Vance told reporters as he left the meeting. In an interview with New York Times columnist Ross Douthat, Vance argued that “even under a circumstance where the alternative-electors thing works, and he’s president again,” Trump would have served a term and retired, mooting any Democratic fear about dictatorship. (Vance won the TP Action convention’s vice presidential straw poll.)

Polling since November 2020 has been consistent: Most Republicans believe that the election was stolen. The party’s grassroots has reflected that view, choosing at least 17 people who signed on to be Trump electors in states he didn’t win as delegates to the 2024 convention — including seven who face criminal charges.

Their fates, like Bannon’s and Navarro’s, are covered in conservative media as purely political, part of a “lawfare” campaign to destroy a movement that is otherwise on track to win. While Trump’s own election interference case is delayed in Georgia, his conviction in New York last month has helped activists tell that story.

“For low-propensity voters, it’s a net positive, for sure,” Turning Point Action CEO Charlie Kirk told Semafor. “These are people who feel that the system is not in their favor. If they thought the system was working perfectly for them, they’d be voting every cycle. Trump’s conviction gives him a kind of rebel energy, especially with younger voters — with younger male voters, in particular.”

The gathering was a study in how the Whatley/Lara Trump-led RNC was outsourcing some of its mission to grassroots groups like Kirk’s. Both Whatley and Trump addressed the convention, too, with Whatley explaining how activists could help them “chase every ballot” and find the otherwise disengaged voters who love their ideas, but don’t trust the system.

In the halls of the event center — as Kirk and others reminded the crowd, it was the site of the 2020 Wayne County ballot count that they considered fraudulent (the courts disagreed, finding no evidence) — Trump’s “outlaw” image was everywhere. Shirts with his mugshot from the Georgia case were on sale, and on bodies; Kirk wore TP Action’s own branded shirt, with an upside down flag and the message “The real verdict is coming November 5th.”

Outside the conference, that premise has conquered the GOP; Trump and the people who challenged the election must win, if democracy can survive. Over the weekend, Indiana Republicans nominated state Rep. Micah Beckwith as their candidate for lieutenant governor; on Jan. 7, 2021, he uploaded (then deleted) his take on the holiness of the election challenge.

“You know what the Lord told me?” Beckwith asked viewers. “He said, Micah: I sent those riots to Washington. He said: What you saw yesterday was my hand at work.”

On Sunday, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott told ABC News that he stood by his vote not to challenge the 2020 election — but that Biden was putting democracy at risk, because “nonviolent folks” who participated in the Jan. 6 protests were being railroaded.

“Some of those have been in pretrial incarcerated for longer than the sentence attached to that crime,” Scott said. “The greatest threat to democracy today is Joe Biden.”

Tonight, in central Virginia, Republican voters will decide whether to re-nominate Rep. Bob Good, or to replace him with Trump-backed state Sen. John McGuire. In a Sunday interview with CNN, McGuire defended his presence at the Jan. 6 rally that preceded the march to the Capitol; it had been fair, he said, to question the democratic integrity of the 2020 election.

“Trust has been destroyed all over the place,” McGuire said. “Changing the rules in the middle of the game is cheating, and I think that Trump was robbed. And I think the American people, under their constitutional right, can peacefully assemble.”

DAVID’S VIEW

None of this is evidence that Trump’s obsession with overturning the last election is popular: It isn’t. The same polls that show most Republicans in disbelief about 2020 find that the rest of the electorate trusted the result. The candidates most associated with Trump’s 2020 election claims fared poorly in the midterms in competitive races, many of them in battleground states whose results he had tried to overturn.

But it’s a reflection of how the “democracy” issue, as advanced by Biden’s Democrats for three years, doesn’t mean the same thing to half the electorate. It’s taken for granted on the right that 2020 was stolen, at some level; the least contested theory is that the company then known as Twitter suppressed stories about Hunter Biden’s hard drive, which in theory could have swung the election.

Part of Turning Point Action’s work now is convincing voters who believe that democracy was smothered by anti-Trump forces that it can be resurrected and saved if they cast ballots. The other part — framing anything bad that happens to Trump as a threat to the democratic system — has already happened among the GOP base.

“They are going to try to assassinate President Trump,” Alex Jones told the crowd, in his first appearance since he was ordered to liquidate assets to pay damages to Sandy Hook families. “They are desperate because there is a global worldwide political realignment against the new world order.” Jack Posobiec, the conservative influencer who’d brought him onstage as a special guest, held up his rosary beads.

At the convention, Bannon added a twist to the democracy-under-threat argument — Democrats, not Republicans, might try to steal the 2020 election, referencing efforts to keep Trump off the ballot over a 14th Amendment prohibition on insurrectionists taking office. The Supreme Court rejected state efforts to invoke the clause.

“[Maryland Congressman] Jamie Raskin is going to try to steal the election on Jan. 6,” said Bannon. “They’re already talking about it right now! They’re going to say, President Trump is an insurrectionist, and we’ll never certify the election of an insurrectionist.”

Raskin defended state-level invocations of the insurrection clause and introduced legislation to provide a method of adjudicating them in response to the Supreme Court ruling. His office did not return a request for comment on Bannon’s post-election accusation.

THE VIEW FROM DEMOCRATS

On Monday, a new Biden campaign ad invoked Trump’s New York convictions as evidence that the GOP nominee is “only out for himself.” Biden himself has stuck to the argument that Trump is a unique threat to democracy, and beating him would end that threat.

“Institutions matter,” Biden said at last weekend’s fundraiser with Barack Obama and Jimmy Kimmel. “And this President, what he did on January the 6th, he’s — do you hear what he’s saying now? He said if he doesn’t win, there’ll be a ‘bloodbath.’ It’s outrageous what he’s talking about. Outrageous. We must make the institutions work.”

NOTABLE

  • For NPR, Elena Moore captures the enthusiasm of young TP Action organizers about 2024: “Honesty is the best policy. And up here in the Midwest, we’re honest. We say it like it is. And Trump did that.”
  • In the LA Times, Doyle McManus asks why Republicans aren’t worried about the implications of Jan. 6 forgiveness. “The problem is the message he’s sending to extremists who might be tempted to act in 2024: If you fight for me, you, too, can count on getting off — and on being hailed as a hero.”
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State of Play

Virginia. Trump has spent weeks trying to beat Rep. Bob Good, and Kevin McCarthy’s spent months on the project — Trump because Good endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president, McCarthy because Good made him the shortest-serving House Speaker in generations. The 5th Congressional District only backed Trump by 8 points in 2020, but there’s no party registration in Virginia, and the electorate is hard to guess. Good’s never faced a traditional primary before, winning the seat in a COVID-modified 2020 convention and drawing no challenge in 2022.

Democrats are competing for two Biden-trending open seats, the 7th Congressional District (Biden by 7) and the 10th (Biden by 18). In the 7th, Trump/Ukraine scandal whistleblower Eugene Vindman’s “resistance” fame made him one of the year’s best fundraisers — he’s spent more than $4 million here, and super PACs like VoteVets have spent $1 million more. Combined, that’s more than five times what the other six Democrats have spent, all with local roots, all portraying Vindman as a carpetbagger. Republican veterans Derrick Anderson and Cameron Hamilton are the top competitors for the GOP nomination here; Hamilton’s endorsed by Good and most of the House Freedom Caucus, Anderson almost won the 2022 primary.

There’s a repeat candidate in the 10th, too: state Del. Dan Helmer, who ran for this seat in 2018 and got the Washington Post’s endorsement and $5.4 million of help from super PACs this time, including the pro-crypto Fairshake. As early voting began, some local Democrats shared an accusation from that 2018 campaign, saying that Helmer groped a woman at an election-night watch party. Rep. Jennifer Wexton, who’s retiring due to complications from Parkinson’s, endorsed Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, and multiple Democrats have pounced on the Helmer scandal, warning that he’d be a general election liability. Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern across the state.

Georgia. Trump has weighed in on today’s runoffs, too: He’s endorsed former White House political director Brian Jack to replace retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson in the 3rd Congressional District. Last month, Jack fell just a few thousand votes short of outright victory; former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Dugan beat him in Carroll County, which he’d represented in Atlanta. Trump won the seat by 30 points in 2020, and Jack’s leaned on other Trump allies to get his name out in the final weeks.

Former Trump education official Wayne Johnson is running for the GOP nomination in the 2nd Congressional District, which Biden won by 10 points; Chuck Hand, a construction superintendent who got prison time for illegally entering the Capitol on Jan. 6, ran close in the runoff, then walked offstage during their only televised debate. (Hand said he did so because a candidate who missed the runoff attacked his wife over an old conviction.) Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern.

Oklahoma. A few months ago, insurance company founder Paul Bondar relocated from Texas to Oklahoma and started running against Rep. Tom Cole. Bondar spent nearly $5 million of his own money to run ads that quickly introduced himself and labeled Cole a disloyal deficit-spender; Cole spent most of his campaign funds to respond, and got air cover from a friendly super PAC. Trump won the 4th Congressional District by 32 points, but Cole wants to end this without a runoff; three other Republicans are on the ballot, though none has run a real campaign. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, 8 p.m. Eastern.

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Ads
Brian Jack for Congress/YouTube

Brian Jack for Congress, “Join the Team.” If you’re a Republican candidate for anything, and you have a Trump endorsement, you use it. Jack’s closing message in his Georgia congressional runoff is that Donald Trump supports him (the footage is from a March Trump rally in the state), and that when he worked for Trump, Jack “secured our borders” and passed “the largest tax cut in history.”

Suhas for Virginia, “Leader.” Northern Virginia is one of the few regions of the country where a local newspaper endorsement has heft. The Washington Post’s editorial board backed Del. Suhas Subramanyam for Rep. Jennifer Wexton’s seat, and its advice splashes over most of this spot, joined by a short biography of the candidate (Obama White House advisor, firefighter, legislator). Rep. Wexton, whose speech has been severely limited by Parkinson’s, appears side by side with the candidate.

Fairshake, “NY Deserves Better Than Bowman.” The crypto industry has unlocked its bottomless wallet for this PAC, which has been looking for progressive crypto skeptics to beat. As usual, its paid message doesn’t mention cryptocurrency at all. It hits Rep. Jamaal Bowman for two negative stories that ran this winter — one about putting Assata Shakur on a school’s “wall of honor,” one about (deleted) poems that questioned the official story of the 9/11 attacks.

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Polls

This is the first time Marist has asked voters about one of the Biden campaign’s major themes. Sure enough, while Biden leads on that question among Democrats and most independents (by 17 points), Republicans and conservative independents say that Trump — who they also see as more equipped to handle every other issue — is better positioned to save democracy. The Republican spin on that question has sunk in with the part of the electorate that’s already likeliest to support Trump, and it sees a Biden win under these circumstances as a threat to democracy.

This is the first election in decades with no real competition in Iowa. Hillary Clinton kept resources in the state until the end of 2016; in 2020, Biden made a last-minute trip to Des Moines. In that vacuum, Trump is running stronger than any Republican nominee has in Iowa in generations — comparable to Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Biden actually runs stronger with his own party than Trump does, marginally. It does him no good, with an approval rating at 33% and negative ratings on every issue — even abortion, in a state where a six-week abortion ban is in legal limbo.

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On the Trail
Brendan McDermid/REUTERS

White House. Trump will stay in Milwaukee during the Republican National Convention, a decision that wasn’t clear until multiple news outlets tried to confirm that he’d be staying at a Trump property in Chicago. “I picked Milwaukee,” Trump wrote on Truth Social after the New York Times asked about the lodging plans, which would have included a 100-mile trip to the convention site.

On Tuesday, President Biden announced new protections for around half a million spouses of non-citizens married to citizens, a victory for immigration advocates angered by this month’s new order restricting access to the asylum process. “It doesn’t tear families apart,” Biden said at a White House announcement, commemorating 12 years since the start of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program that protected non-citizens brought into the country as children.

And on Thursday, both candidates are on track to qualify for CNN’s June 27 debate; the deadline for proving that candidates will have ballot access in enough states to win the presidency is one week before the event itself. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on track to miss it, after CNN told reporters that he has not made the ballot in enough states to theoretically win 270 electoral votes. Kennedy has already filed an FEC complaint about the debate rules, and many states won’t confirm who made their ballot until later this summer. As of Tuesday afternoon, he had reached 15% support or higher in just three national polls recognized by CNN; the network requires a candidate to hit that level in four polls.

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Next
  • seven days until runoffs in South Carolina and primaries in Colorado, New York, and Utah
  • nine days until the first presidential debate
  • 27 days until the Republican National Convention
  • 42 days until primaries in Arizona
  • 62 days until the Democratic National Convention
  • 140 days until the 2024 presidential election
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