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The GOP’s new Muslim outreach, a Republican fight brewing up in Utah, and, oh yeah – a former presid͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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June 13, 2023
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David Weigel
David Weigel

In this edition: The GOP’s new Muslim outreach, a Republican fight brewing up in Utah, and, oh yeah – a former president gets arrested.

David Weigel

The GOP’s new Muslim outreach

Fox News

THE SCENE

In late March, after the Montgomery County, Md. school district announced that students could not opt out of reading books with LGBTQ themes, the local chapter of Moms for Liberty started to organize. County organizer Lindsey Smith arrived at a school board meeting with signs, printed by the conservative group, that read “we do NOT CO-PARENT with the GOVERNMENT.”

That was how Smith met the Muslim families, new to conservative politics, who were also demanding a restored opt-out policy and taking their signs. Within weeks, they’d show up to board meetings in the hundreds.

“We have the same family values,” Smith told Semafor. “They created a team out of people they weren’t expecting to team up. The board of education forgot the demographics of their county, if I’m being honest.”

Twelve years ago, House Republicans questioned whether the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) was a “terrorist organization.” Last week, CAIR was on site at the board meeting, lobbying for a policy that would let Muslim students skip the LGBTQ reading, to fix what Maryland CAIR director Zainab Chaudry called the “growing sense of hurt and betrayal experienced by our communities.”

Their protests grabbed conservative media attention after a Montgomery County legislator asked why Muslim parents “were on the same side of an issue as White supremacists and outright bigots.” She apologized. But not before Fox News host Laura Ingraham told her viewers that “people of faith have been waiting for Muslims to step up,” and brought on Kareem Monib, a Muslim parent in Howard County, Md. to discuss what was happening.

The irony of the moment was not lost on her guest: “Five years ago Laura was saying we shouldn’t have Muslims in this country,” Monib, the founder of the pro opt-out group Coalition of Virtue, told Semafor. “Now she’s saying: Thank God, the Muslims are here!”

DAVID’S VIEW

In his first campaign for president, Donald Trump appealed to LGBTQ voters by pledging to protect them from a “hateful foreign ideology” that he falsely linked to ordinary Muslim Americans. Seven years later, Republicans are wooing Muslim voters by promising to protect them from LGBTQ rights advocates whose demands conflict with their faith.

The anti-Muslim politics that Trump tapped into for years — offering cash to stop a “Ground Zero Mosque,” spreading inflammatory lies about Arab neighborhoods, proposing a “total and complete shutdown” of Muslims entering the U.S. that turned into a travel ban that mostly affected Muslims — don’t have as much traction with GOP candidates anymore.

What replaced it? Trump told a Republican crowd in a recent speech that “transgender” is a guaranteed applause line even though “five years ago you didn’t know what the hell it was.”

Nobody’s explicitly disavowed the old Republican politics, but presidential candidates don’t warn about “Islamofascism” in Des Moines; they don’t talk about banning sharia law in Charleston; and Trump himself has only talked off-camera about restoring the “Muslim ban.” Support for deepening ties with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia increasingly codes as MAGA thanks in part to Trump’s friendly diplomatic and business relationships.

That’s created some space for a project that conservatives shelved for two decades: Making cultural appeals to observant Muslims, and separating them from a secular, progressive Democratic Party. The Muslim vote collapsed after the party’s post-9/11 turn, and didn’t recover when Trump led the GOP.

“They are not big on ‘woke’ stuff and are not susceptible to being bullied,” said Grover Norquist, the president of Americans of Tax Reform, whose own effort to bring Muslims into the GOP fizzled during the run-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. “They are woke-resistant.”

Muslim voters are a small share of the electorate; pre-Bush GOP outreach was focused mostly in Michigan, a swing state where support from Muslims and non-Muslim Arabs can be decisive. Last year, after Muslim parents in Dearborn, Mich. demanded that “filth” and “pornography” be taken out of public schools, Republicans rushed in. The party’s unsuccessful statewide ticket rallied in the city; in February, the state GOP chose Rola Makki, its first-ever Muslim official, as its outreach director.

Michigan Democrats swept the midterms, but their vote share declined in Dearborn. Makki told Semafor that the shift helped convince GOP delegates to elect her to the outreach role. She wanted to introduce Muslims and Islam to more Republicans, in a state where an anti-Muslim state senator ran for governor just five years ago. And she wanted to convince more Muslims that the Democrats had abandoned them.

“A lot of people from the Middle East were persecuted for their beliefs and wanted to come here for religious freedom,” said Makki. “How did we go from love, tolerance, and acceptance to forcing beliefs on people?”

Gender identity and LGBTQ content in schools were forcing that question, said Makki; in March, she tweeted that when “someone asks me why as a Muslim I’ve aligned with the GOP, I just go to the Libs of TikTok page and show them the insanity from the progressive left.”

“The kids are too young to be exposed to this ideology,” said Khalil Ahmed-Saif Othman, a Dearborn activist and former Democrat who joined Makki and state chair Kristina Karamo at a GOP outreach event at a banquet hall in the city last month. “The Michigan GOP is becoming more welcoming to minorities.”

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

Wa’el Alzayat, the CEO of the Muslim political action group Emgage, said that the GOP outreach to that community would bump up against the rest of the party’s agenda.

“Some people will always be swayed by this, but Republicans have a lot of baggage to deal with,” said Alzayat. “The first thing the Republican speaker of the House did this year was strip Ilhan Omar of her committee assignments. Trump still wants to reinstate the Muslim ban. Yes, they’ve pivoted from some talking points, but there’s a fundamental problem with Republicans and American Muslims.”

Sami Khaldi, the president of the Dearborn Democratic Club, acknowledged that Republicans had made some gains there. In 2020, after making the “Muslim ban” reality, Trump had even improved on his 2016 vote share. But he ticked off issues where “the Democratic Party, which is a welcoming party,” had more to tell Muslims — auto insurance costs (a major Michigan-specific issue), education, and healthcare.

Asked about GOP outreach in her district, a spokesman for Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib pointed to her statement last month condemning the Parents Bill of Rights for turning students “into pawns in their political games.” After the Dearborn protests, Tlaib told Fox 2 Detroit that “extremists on the right” were “promoting lies, fear, and outrage while chanting Trump’s name.”

NOTABLE

  • In Hamtramck, not far from Dearborn, the all-Muslim city council will vote tonight on whether to prevent all but five flags from being flown on city property. Pride flags would be prohibited, which prominent conservatives have argued in recent days should not be used in an official capacity.
  • The idea of winning social conservative Muslims over to the GOP isn’t new: Dinesh D’Souza suggested it in his 2007 book “The Enemy at Home,” arguing that “the right is perfectly poised to forge an alliance with traditional Muslims” once it stopped “its ridiculous preening as the champion of secularism and feminism.”
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State of Play

UTAH

Pro-Trump and anti-Trump Republicans entered the race to succeed Rep. Chris Stewart, who’s resigning in September to take care of his ailing wife. Former state Rep. Becky Edwards, part of a LDS group that opposed Trump in 2020, filed late last week with a promise to “move beyond sensational, anger-provoking politics.” Former state House Speaker Greg Hughes, who endorsed Trump in 2016 when many Utah Republicans were skittish about him, filed the same day. Candidates have to put in paperwork by the end of tomorrow, and denote whether they’re running in the September 5 primary, for the nomination at the convention, or both.

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YouTube/United For Democracy

United for Democracy, “Launch.” Conservatives accuse progressives of attacking the integrity of the Supreme Court in order to degrade the public’s trust in it. They’re basically right. This new coalition, whose members include Planned Parenthood and the American Federation of Teachers, is spending $1 million in five states where Republicans are targeting incumbent Democratic senators. (It skips West Virginia, where the party’s less popular than Sen. Joe Manchin.) Average, angry Americans explain why they’re worried about the “dangerous Supreme Court” that’s “taking away our freedoms” and making new gun laws impossible.

AFP Action, “Only Way.” The Koch network’s campaign arm is running three new digital ads in early primary states, all of them warning GOP voters of doom if they nominate Trump. The evidence that “the American people are ready to move on,” as a narrator puts it, is a Fox News poll that shows 60% of voters unwilling to back Trump again. Biden’s unpopular, too, but he literally looms over Trump in this spot, a symbol of what will happen if the GOP doesn’t pick a better nominee. (Stand Together, the Kochs’ philanthropic organization, is an investor in Semafor.)

Doug Burgum for America, “Change.” The governor of North Dakota launched his presidential campaign the same day as Mike Pence, and headed to Iowa the day Trump got indicted. What Burgum didn’t get in earned media, he’s getting with his checkbook – $3 million worth of ad time over the next few weeks, self-funded, and including this 60-second spot that tells the story of his business success and “remarkable” time in Bismarck. “Woke was what you did at 5 a.m. to start the day,” Burgum says, emphasizing that “kids from small towns” helped build his company.

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Polls

In April, when House Republicans passed legislation to “save women’s sports” by keeping transgender women out of them, no House Democrat supported it. The party’s base is more divided on the issue, and like all voters, they’ve shifted against it. By a one-point margin, most Democrats now say that sports participation should match what Gallup calls “birth gender,” and every other group of voters lopsidedly supports that position.

The first look at GOP reaction to the ex-president’s legal trouble explains why only one Republican (Asa Hutchinson) called on Trump to quit the race. Just one in four Republicans believe that Trump’s handling of classified documents “risked national security,” and half of those who do also believe that he got hit for it for political reasons.

The first clue that voters would take a Kennedy challenge seriously, even if the Democratic Party didn’t, was an April poll of 2020 Biden voters, conducted by Suffolk. Fourteen percent of Democrats said then that they supported Kennedy, and that’s stayed steady, even with a slightly different question, and even after a round of interviews in which the first-time candidate committed heresy against the Democratic platform. The vast majority of Democrats say they want a candidate debate in a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll, and that includes the 72% of them who already plan to support Biden. The official reason for the lack of debates — the DNC’s endorsed Biden already — isn’t changing anything.

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2024
CHRISTINA MENDENHALL/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

WHITE HOUSE

Since Thursday night, there’s been just one story in the presidential race: The 37-count indictment of Donald Trump in the classified documents probe. His rival GOP candidates spent the weekend reacting to it, and some spent Tuesday commenting on the scene as he turned himself in.

Vivek Ramasawamy went there in person, wearing one of his campaign’s “TRUTH” baseball caps and urging every other candidate to sign his pledge promising to pardon Trump if they won the election.

“The donor class has been calling every Republican candidate and telling us to stay away from this,” Ramaswamy said, outside the Wilkie D. Ferguson Jr. U.S. Courthouse in Miami. “Keep your distance away from Trump. That is what the donor class is telling us, that’s what they’re telling the other candidates. I refuse to abide by being a disciple of the donor class.”

Nikki Haley was the first 2024 rival to accept the challenge. Sort of. In an interview with Clay and Buck, Haley repeated some of what she’d told Fox News on Monday, that Trump was “reckless with our national security.” She was “inclined” to pardon Trump, she said, because “it would be terrible for the country to have a former president in prison for years because of a documents case.”

Trump didn’t get much backup from the rest of the field. Over the weekend, at the North Carolina GOP’s convention, Mike Pence criticized the DOJ’s handling of the case, but didn’t absolve his former running mate.

“The American people have a right to know the basis of this decision,” Pence said. “Attorney General Merrick Garland, stop hiding behind the special counsel and stand before the American people and explain why this indictment went forward.”

In an interview on CBS News “Face the Nation” on Sunday, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum said that he’d “follow every rule related to handling classified documents” if he became president. At his Monday night CNN town hall, Chris Christie called Trump’s predicament a case of “vanity run amok.”

“He is now going to put this country through this when we didn’t have to go through it,” Christie said. “Everyone’s blaming the prosecutors. He did it. It’s his conduct.”

Ron DeSantis, the other Floridian in the race, was quiet on Tuesday, holding no public events and taking no media questions. His campaign Twitter account boosted an article in RealClearPolitics, detailing a private strategy session in which DeSantis talked about remaking the DOJ, breaking it down, and even getting parts of it “shipped to other parts of the country.”

Trump didn’t take questions, either, but he followed his arraignment with a visit to the original location of Miami’s famous Versailles cafe, where he was serenaded with a round of “Happy Birthday.” (He turns 77 tomorrow.)

“Some birthday,” he deadpanned, before pledging to turn around “a country that is in decline like never before.”

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Next
  • seven days until state legislature primaries in Virginia
  • 56 days until primaries in Mississippi
  • 71 days until the first GOP presidential primary debate
  • 84 days until the special congressional election in Rhode Island
  • 127 days until elections in Louisiana
  • 145 days until elections in Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, Mississippi, and Virginia
  • 511 days until the 2024 presidential election
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