Flagship

SK vote could trigger Asia realignment

South Korea’s presidential election Tuesday could lead to a geopolitical reorientation in Asia, analysts said. Under former President Yoon Suk Yeol, Seoul aligned closely with the US and Japan, but the contest’s left-wing frontrunner, Lee Jae-myung, could pursue a more independent foreign policy that supports closer ties with China, a Eurasia Group expert said: “This is a turning point. Not just for Korea, but for the entire Indo-Pacific.” The snap vote caps a remarkable six-month stretch of political instability and paralysis in South Korea after Yoon briefly declared martial law in December, a move that led to his removal from office and a criminal indictment. “This election must mark the beginning of national restoration,” Korea JoongAng Daily wrote.

Kyiv’s drone strike rattles Moscow

Ukraine’s successful drone strike deep inside Russia on Sunday likely dents Moscow’s nuclear deterrent and its ability to attack beyond its borders, analysts said. The drones, which struck parked jets in Russian airfields, reportedly destroyed several bombers that Moscow used to launch guided-missile attacks on Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported, forcing Russia to recalibrate how it operates and stores its remaining fleet. While the attack might not deter Russia’s longterm military aims, it likely rattled the Kremlin: Even as Moscow has trumpeted its vast resources and manpower, “Kyiv has shown targeted pin pricks can burst these bubbles,” a CNN analyst wrote. Ukraine said such losses could push Russia to diplomacy, but Monday’s peace talks in Istanbul concluded with no ceasefire breakthrough.

Tech stocks offset trade tensions

Wall Street appeared to look beyond rising global trade tensions Monday. US stocks ticked up even after China and the US accused each other of violating a temporary trade agreement, as friction between the countries resurges following last month’s détente. And the European Union, unhappy over US President Donald Trump’s threat to double steel tariffs, said it had prepared “countermeasures” if this week’s trade negotiations with Washington fail. Despite the geopolitical tumult, the market is relatively stable because of the success of American tech firms, which have reported strong earnings growth, Bloomberg’s Jonathan Levin wrote: “Wall Street isn’t ignoring the potential risks from tariffs and a consumer slowdown, analysts just think that America’s innovation superstars will partially offset any damage.”

Syria stock market reopens

Syria’s stock market reopened Monday after a six-month closure, the latest sign of the country’s rebuilding efforts. Trading at the Damascus exchange stopped just before Bashar al-Assad was overthrown, and “reopens in a new era,” The Economist wrote: The US and European Union have lifted some sanctions on Syria’s new government, which will help Damascus reintegrate into international financial systems. Gulf nations are primed to be leading investors in the country’s recovery — last week Syria struck a deal with a Qatari-led consortium to revitalize its energy grid. The region sees Syria as critical for curbing Iran’s influence, and can “pull Damascus firmly into the Gulf-Arab minded orbit,” Donald Trump’s former Middle East envoy wrote for Semafor Gulf.

Merz takes immigration hit

A German court ruled Monday that the government’s move to turn away some asylum seekers at the border is unlawful, denting Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s immigration agenda. Merz’s conservative-led coalition has looked to toughen its stance on migration as the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party rises in popularity. Immediately after taking office, the interior minister said border checks would be intensified, and that the government could reject asylum seekers who posed a threat to public safety. But despite boosting border security, “the desired, visible signal against irregular migration will fail,” Die Zeit argued: The number of asylum-seekers has already been declining, and many are smuggled through forests and back roads, rather than traditional border crossings.

US renews scrutiny of Indian tycoon

Indian tycoon Gautam Adani is facing renewed scrutiny in the US over alleged business ties to Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported. Adani, Asia’s second-richest man, was indicted last year by US prosecutors on foreign bribery allegations, and he has reportedly pushed for the Donald Trump administration to drop the charges. But the new probe, according to the Journal, could hinder that effort: It focuses on whether Adani’s companies in India have evaded sanctions to import Iranian liquefied petroleum gas. Trump has signaled a rollback in enforcing foreign bribery laws, but said he wants to crack down on Iranian oil and gas products; last month he threatened “secondary sanctions” on any person or country buying petrochemicals or oil from Iran.

China’s corporate succession problem

A generation of Chinese entrepreneurs is facing a succession problem. A lot of businesses that emerged in the 1980s and 90s after China’s market reforms have leaders who are at or nearing retirement, and they are struggling to find suitable heirs, The Wire China reported. Because of the country’s decades-long one child policy, several tycoons only have one possible heir, many of whom are reluctant to take over their family’s business, or weren’t trained to do so. And among companies where second-generation leaders want to step up, stories of succession drama abound: The 84-year-old head of a Chinese shoe brand recently accused his family members of restricting his freedom and breaking into an office to force him to step down.

The most powerful people in the media are gathering in Cannes this month, and we’re on the ground to cover it all. Starting June 16, Semafor’s Ben Smith and Max Tani will hop between panels, parties, and yachts to bring you the essential guide to marketing and media’s most consequential event.

Whether you’re jetting to Cannes or just want to stay in the loop, subscribe to our pop-up newsletter, Semafor Cannes. Sign up here.

Satellites improve emission reporting

Satellite data showing that companies often underreport their carbon emissions could be used to hold firms accountable. Sustainability policies and climate modeling rely at least partly on reported greenhouse gas emissions, but those reports are “fundamentally unstable,” a researcher told the Financial Times: His work reviewed data from 300 satellites and compared it to stated emissions from 279 companies. The research found that 75 companies, especially those in the US oil and gas sector, were significantly understating their output. Similar findings have been reported in the past. The researcher argued that governments should use this satellite information to force more accurate numbers from companies. In the US, the Trump administration is rolling back Biden-era climate disclosure requirements.

AI could transform animation

Artificial intelligence is speeding up animation, potentially reducing the cost of making cartoons by 90%. AI is yet to transform Hollywood, The New York Times reported: “Human brains are still much better at creating art than virtual ones,” at least for now. But animation may be different. It is extraordinarily expensive, ever since computer-generated imagery replaced hand-drawn films, and studios have a huge incentive to reduce costs. One AI system lip-syncs voices rapidly — a minute of dialog that could have taken four hours to sync a few years ago, now takes just 15 minutes. One DreamWorks executive predicted that by next year, only 50 people will be needed to make a major animated movie, down from 500 a decade ago.

Market for LatAm Surrealism surges

Demand is booming for works by Latin American Surrealist artists despite a global art market slump. Sales for eight major female Surrealists jumped by about 160% last year, largely driven by Remedios Varo and Leonora Carrington. Overall sales, meanwhile, were down 27%. Last month a Varo piece sold for $6.22 million, a new record for her work. Amid economic uncertainty, female Surrealists are seen as “a discounted way to hedge risk,” The Economist wrote: “Nationalist-billionaire ambition also pushes up prices.” One Argentine collector, who just paid $28.5 million for a Carrington piece, is looking to fill a Latin American art museum he founded in Buenos Aires.

June 3:

• The OECD releases its semi-annual Economic Outlook report.
• The EU publishes its May inflation estimate.
• Vienna hosts the annual Austrian World Summit, organized by the Schwarzenegger Climate Initiative.

A forthcoming biography of 20th-century painters Gwen and Augustus John explores how their antagonistic sibling rivalry — and deep bond — shaped their trajectories. Artists, Siblings, Visionaries: The Lives and Loves of Gwen and Augustus John, by Judith Mackrell, chronicles how the “flamboyantly bohemian” Augustus was quickly celebrated by London’s male-dominated arts scene, while little-known Gwen eschewed marriage for independence and resisted her brother’s “despotic” attempts at promoting her work. But in a development that would have baffled her contemporaries, Gwen is now “the more famous John,” following a late 20th-century reappraisal, Mackrell wrote in The Guardian. Her brother saw it coming, though: “He once prophesied that in 50 years, he would be known ‘as the brother of Gwen John.’”

Democrats kicked off the 2028 campaign in South Carolina this weekend, whose first-in-the-nation primary status is part of Joe Biden’s ambiguous legacy to his party, Semafor’s David Weigel reported.

“We had nothing to do with being number one,” Democratic Rep. James Clyburn told Weigel at his “world-famous fish fry,” flanked by the governors of Maryland and Minnesota in matching CLYBURN t-shirts. “That’s something that Joe Biden decided to do, for whatever reason.”