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In today’s edition, we look at how shareholder votes at Exxon and Hess could reshape competitive dyn͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 28, 2024
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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Hi and welcome back to Semafor Business.

Starting today, US stock trades will finally settle as quickly as they did 100 years ago, as the market moves to a one-day timetable for cash and shares to change hands. Three of Japan’s biggest car companies held a rare joint press conference to announce a new commitment to internal combustion engines. And the corporate world’s attention this week is focused on … Big Oil.

AI is, rightly, the dominant force in business right now, but those throwback headlines are a reminder that things can change quickly. The momentum of both ESG and EVs has been halted, and the whims of an international arbitration court in France may shape the next several decades of US energy policy. Today we dig into Big Oil’s big week, with consequential shareholder votes at Hess and Exxon.

Plus, xAI announces the giant fundraising that Elon Musk has said repeatedly it wasn’t working on.

Buy/Sell

➚ BUY: Sentiment. US consumer confidence unexpectedly rose for the first time since January. Narrowing the gap between how the economy is actually doing (quite well) and how people think it’s doing (a majority of Americans think it’s in a recession) is key to President Joe Biden’s reelection chances.

➘ SELL: Sentience. OpenAI is backing off its efforts to achieve “superintelligence,” with an executive telling the Financial Times it will settle for normal human-level skills.

Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images
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The Tape

ECB ready to cut rates next week… Hackers have Christie’s client list… Private-equity giants near settlement over texting… Adam Neumann abandons WeWork bid... Israel holds rates steady as war hits economy… Hong Kong’s office towers sit empty… GameStop trading continues to defy logic…

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Mixed Signals

Introducing Mixed Signals, a new podcast from Semafor Media presented by Think with Google. Co-hosted by Semafor’s own Ben Smith, and renowned podcaster and journalist Nayeema Raza, every Friday, Mixed Signals pulls back the curtain on the week’s key stories around media, revealing how money, access, culture, and politics shape everything you read, watch, and hear.

Whether you’re a media insider or simply curious about what drives today’s headlines, Mixed Signals is the perfect addition to your media diet. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

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Liz Hoffman

Big Oil’s big week

THE NEWS

Two shareholder votes this week could reshape the oil industry.

Hess shareholders vote this afternoon on the company’s $53 billion sale to Chevron, and with a few hours to go, it’s still a nailbiter. Uncertainty over the fate of Hess’ stake in a South American oilfield has thrown what is generally a rubber-stamp process into chaos and forced John Hess to hit the phones in a last-minute effort to secure approval for his legacy-defining deal.

An influential shareholder adviser, ISS, is recommending that Hess shareholders abstain and force the company to reschedule. Hess shares are trading at about $10 below Chevron’s offer, a wide gap this near to a potential deal closing.

Wednesday brings Exxon’s annual meeting, where a handful of investors including California’s state employee pension and Norway’s giant oil fund have said they’ll oppose some directors. They’ll square off against red-state treasurers in a vote that has turned into something of a proxy for the rise and fall of the ESG movement.

Jose Bula Urrutia/Eyepix Group/Future Publishing via Getty Images

LIZ’S VIEW

Exxon is on an epic corporate winning streak.

It has become the unlikeliest of faces of an unlikely shift in prevailing business winds, suing two of its own shareholders who pressed a ballot measure urging the company to speed up its carbon-emissions reductions. “That Exxon — Exxon — feels comfortable throwing its corporate might against a couple of low-budget activists says a lot about how quickly the political weather has changed” around ESG, I wrote at the time.

When the shareholders dropped their proposal and promised not to submit it again, Exxon moved ahead with its lawsuit anyway, doing away with any pretense that this was a narrow governance battle and not a corporate crusade. Last week a Fort Worth judge took the unusual step of allowing the case to continue, calling Exxon’s behavior a “rational response to entities categorically opposed to Big Oil” and noting Texas’ own interest in the matter.

Over in ring two, Exxon has successfully mucked with its chief competitor, Chevron. Exxon and Hess are partners in an offshore oilfield in Guyana, a generational find thought to hold twice as much oil as the Gulf of Mexico. Exxon says it has the right of first refusal on Hess’s 30% stake and has launched proceedings in international court that could stretch on for more than a year. Chevron is confident it will win, but the project’s operating agreement is under lock and key. Chevron could walk away for free if it ultimately loses, and the uncertainty has unnerved Hess shareholders to the point that their approval at a vote scheduled for later today is iffy.

In ring three, Exxon’s own big takeover, a $60 billion deal for Pioneer, got approved by the most merger-hostile regulators in a generation and closed earlier this month. And the one concession the Federal Trade Commission did insist on is a gift to CEO Darren Woods: His former counterpart at Pioneer can’t serve on the company’s board of directors while regulators pursue price-fixing allegations that may yet turn criminal. You know what CEOs don’t like? Executives of the company they just bought sitting in their boardroom, watching while they take pruning shears to it.

Ring four — this is a big circus — concerns a vote of Exxon’s own investors, on Wednesday. After pension funds in California, Illinois, New York City, and Norway said they would vote against Woods and other board members because of the Texas lawsuit, the political scales appear to have tipped back in Exxon’s favor. Several red states have come out in support, and bipartisan legislators in deep blue Illinois’ introduced a bill telling its treasurer to prioritize investment returns over politics.

The tide of ESG momentum has clearly ebbed in recent years. In 2021, a tiny hedge fund, seizing on shareholder discontent with Exxon’s slow embrace of renewables, won three seats on its board. That may end up being a high-water mark of the movement, and Exxon’s counterstrike lawsuit now a punctuation point.

Why California’s pension giant says it’s voting no. →

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Evidence

Elon Musk’s xAI finally announced a major fundraising that’s been widely reported for months, a $6 billion haul that values the year-old company at $18 billion. The billionaire’s repeated denials in recent months that the company was talking to investors could bring scrutiny from securities regulators who have a long history with Musk.

After xAI filed in December to raise $1 billion from investors, Musk said: “We are not raising money right now.” After Bloomberg reported in January that xAI has raised $500 million of that goal at a valuation of between $15 billion and $20 billion, Musk called it “fake news.” After the Financial Times reported a week later that xAI was actually trying to raise $6 billion at a valuation of $20 billion, Musk said that the company “is not raising capital and I have had no conversations with anyone in this regard.”

Of note: The deal includes marquee venture-capital names like Sequoia and Andreessen Horowitz, but no corporate backer like Amazon or Microsoft, which have offered both cash and cloud-computing credits to rival AI startups.

I asked my colleague Reed Albergotti what to make of that, and he pointed to Oracle, whose founder, Larry Ellison, is a close confidant of Musk’s. The two companies are said to be discussing a $10 billion deal for GPUs.

“Oracle is an also-ran in the cloud game, but it has something going for it in the AI era,” Reed said. “It was so far behind competitors that its hardware is actually more up to date. But large language models like Grok are already obsolete. We’re now in the multimodal era, where foundation models can see and hear.”

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What We’re Tracking
Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/Reuters

Gassing up: The heads of Toyota, Mazda, and Subaru made a rare joint appearance in Tokyo today to announce new investments in gas-powered engines. Toyota’s chairman, the great-grandson of its founding industrialist, has predicted that demand for battery electric vehicles will top out at 30%, “no matter how much progress [batteries] make.” Carmakers all over the world are hedging their bets on electric vehicles as consumer demand cools. In April, Ford delayed the launch of its new electric SUV and truck, Tesla is laying off 10% of its workers, and Mercedes has pushed its goal of a half-electric fleet by five years, to 2030.

Carbon copy: The Biden administration today took a key step toward the development of a functioning market for carbon credits, which companies hope will finally put a price on emissions and allow them to trade freely as an alternative currency to help finance the energy transition. The new guidelines aim to crack down on fraud, like phantom capture projects and unplanted trees, and give market participants confidence that their credits are actually doing some good. “Transparency does for markets what spinach does for Popeye,” former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg writes today.

Faster stocks: US investors and regulators are bracing for a bumpy change to market plumbing. Stock trades will now settle in one day instead of two, which should eventually make the system safer but lead to a spike in failed trades for now. The change to “T+1” settlement catches the US up with India and China and is a response to the meme-stock craze of 2021, when a surge of retail trading forced brokerages — most memorably, and nearly fatally, Robinhood — to put aside extra cash to cover the two-day waiting period. “Time is money and time is risk,” SEC chief Gary Gensler said in January when he announced the move. In the early days of America’s stock market, trades routinely settled in a single day, but time was added as rising volumes gummed up the gears.

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