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India launches missile attacks on Pakistan, Mark Carney tells Donald Trump that Canada is not for sa͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 7, 2025
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The World Today

Semafor “World Today” map graphic.
  1. India strikes Pakistan
  2. US-Houthi ceasefire
  3. Merz becomes German leader
  4. Carney meets Trump
  5. US trade deficit record
  6. India-UK trade deal
  7. Unis’ private equity pain
  8. Life expectancy gap progress
  9. Hugos’ AI debate
  10. From wine to copper

A veteran New York restaurateur dishes details on his viral celebrity feuds in a memoir.

1

India launches Pakistan attack

A city view of Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-administrated Kashmir.
Stringer/Reuters

India launched missile strikes against Pakistan Wednesday, escalating tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors. New Delhi — which blames Islamabad for the killing of tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last month — said it targeted “terrorist infrastructure” in nine locations; Pakistan has vowed retaliation. Analysts had expected a limited military response from India, but the strikes nevertheless mark an “intensification of the conflict that runs the risk of setting off an all-out war that could be difficult to contain,” The New York Times wrote. Both countries have significantly upgraded their militaries since they clashed in 2019, and “now have a higher risk appetite for conflict initiation and escalation,” an expert told Reuters.

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2

Oman says it mediated US-Houthi truce

Smoke billows after an Israeli airstrike on Houthi infrastructure, in Sana’a.
Khaled Abdullah/Reuters

Oman said it mediated a ceasefire between Washington and Yemen’s Houthis, after a nearly two-month-long US bombing campaign against the Iran-backed group. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the Houthis “capitulated” and ceased attacks on American ships in the Red Sea; the group last attacked a commercial ship in December, targeting the critical trading route to protest Israel’s war in Gaza. Israel, which bombed Yemen’s international airport Tuesday in retaliation for a missile strike on Tel Aviv, was reportedly blindsided by the ceasefire. But it was the “perfect” moment for Trump to declare victory over the Houthis, ahead of his Gulf trip next week, The Economist’s Gregg Carlstrom wrote: “Saudi will be pleased with de-escalation.”

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3

Merz elected German leader on second try

Friedrich Merz reacts during the Bundestag session to elect the new German chancellor, in Berlin.
Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters

Friedrich Merz became Germany’s chancellor Tuesday after suffering an unprecedented defeat on his first attempt. The parliament backed Merz in the second round of voting, but no other candidate in Germany’s post-war history has ever failed the first: Several members of Merz’s incoming governing coalition had secretly refused to back him. The fiasco laid bare the fragility of the chancellor’s narrow majority, analysts said, imperiling his ambitious economy and defense agenda. Merz’s shaky election could also damage his global reputation at a critical time for Europe. The continent “looked to Berlin today in the hope that Germany would reassert itself as an anchor of stability,” an expert said. “That hope has been dashed.”

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4

Canada ‘not for sale,’ Carney tells Trump

US President Donald Trump meets Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the Oval Office.
Leah Millis/Reuters

Canada is “not for sale,” the country’s prime minister told US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, in their first meeting following Mark Carney’s victory last week. While the two leaders showed little animosity toward each other in the Oval Office, the meeting nevertheless reflected underlying tensions: “Never say never,” Trump said following Carney’s remarks on Canadian sovereignty. Carney looked to use the meeting as a reset in the neighbors’ relationship amid trade tensions and annexation threats from Trump, and before the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement comes up for renewal next year. Carney acknowledged that one meeting won’t turn around the relationship. “But now we’re engaged,” he said.

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5

US trade deficit hits record

A chart showing the US monthly balance of trade since 2012.

The US trade deficit rose to a record high of $140.5 billion in March, as importers rushed goods into the country to preempt US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff hikes. The new data, which precedes Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs, underscored the impact of surging imports on the US economy, which contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter. Analysts have warned of broader supply chain shocks in the coming weeks: US ports have seen decreasing imports from China. The US Treasury secretary on Tuesday teased trade deal announcements this week, but said negotiations with Beijing had not begun. China, meanwhile, is widening its diplomatic charm offensive toward trading partners in Asia, Europe, and Latin America.

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6

India, UK strike trade deal

A chart showing quarterly business investment in the UK since 1997.

The UK and India struck a landmark trade deal Tuesday that could help insulate their economies from US President Donald Trump’s trade war. The agreement, the UK’s most valuable post-Brexit trade deal, lowers tariffs on a wide range of goods, including British alcohol and cars — which are especially vulnerable in Trump’s trade salvo — and Indian clothes and footwear. Talks began years ago, but officials sealed the deal as shockwaves from Trump’s tariffs ripple through the global economy. Both London and New Delhi are looking to clinch their own pacts with Trump to avoid the punishing duties: India has reportedly proposed zero-for-zero tariffs on auto parts, steel, and pharmaceuticals to expedite negotiations with the US.

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Plug
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Vietnam has become a critical hub in the global supply chain and a key focus of US trade policy — but there’s much more to the story. From dramatic government restructuring to significant growth in semiconductor manufacturing, the country is emerging as a key global player. To stay in the know on all things Vietnam, subscribe to Vietnam Weekly. Trusted by thousands of diplomats, members of the media, and investors, Vietnam Weekly delivers on-the-ground perspectives from Ho Chi Minh City. Learn more and subscribe here.

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7

Private equity pain weighs on US unis

A student walks amid the buildings of Harvard University in Cambridge.
Faith Ninivaggi/Reuters

Private equity investments represent a growing financial challenge for elite US universities. Economic uncertainty fueled by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs has slowed deal-making, meaning private equity firms are taking longer than usual to return money to investors. That is pushing colleges — whose endowments are partly allocated in private equity — to explore creative ways to reduce their exposure amid Trump’s threats to cut funding, Bloomberg reported: One expert compared it to planning an escape “in the unlikely event of a fire in a movie hall… Everyone wants to be the first to get out.” Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said Tuesday that Harvard University is “in a financial crisis right now” as it weighs selling some of its holdings.

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8

Life expectancy gap falls

A chart showing the convergence in child mortality rates for low- and high-income countries since the early 1990s.

The gap in life expectancy between the world’s wealthiest and poorest countries fell by nearly a third since the millennium. People born in the richest third of countries could expect to live 18.2 years longer than those in the poorest third in 2000, but that is now 12.5 years, a World Health Organization report found. The narrowing is even more extreme between the longest-lived country, Japan, and the shortest, Lesotho: The once 33-year gap has narrowed by nine years. Much of the change is thanks to reductions in child mortality: The global rate of deaths among the under-fives fell more than 50%. But the WHO warned that despite progress, the world is “severely off-track” to meet development goals.

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9

AI controversy mires Hugo Awards

Hugo Award presenters at the Hugo Award Ceremony, at Worldcon 75 in Helsinki, in 2017.
2017 Hugo Awards in Helsinki. Sanna Pudas/Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 4.0

Three administrators of the prestigious Hugo Awards for science fiction resigned over a row about the use of artificial intelligence. Seattle Worldcon, which hosts the awards, used AI to vet some participants. Although the technology was not used to judge entries, it caused a backlash: One finalist withdrew his nomination, while another warned that the awards would have an “asterisk” next to them, citing their use of “the racist plagiarism machine.” Worldcon’s chair said using an LLM “saved literally hundreds of hours of volunteer staff time,” but the uproar led senior figures to step down. Some authors defended the use of AI, but it’s a touchy subject among fiction writers: The novel-writing nonprofit NaNoWriMo shut down over a similar row.

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10

Mendoza could pivot from wine to copper

A panoramic view of Argentina’s Mendoza region.
Gervacio Rosales/Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 3.0

Mendoza, Argentina’s wine-making heartland, could become a major copper producer. Mendoza’s wine industry has taken a hit from a global demand slump, and while the city is known to hold large deposits of copper, environmental concerns and fears over Argentina’s political and economic volatility have prevented major investment. But President Javier Milei appears to have stabilized the economy, and is seeking export dollars and foreign investment, while regional leaders have largely dropped their opposition. Six planned projects could push Argentina, which currently mines almost no copper, into the top 10 global producers, the Financial Times reported. Copper demand is soaring thanks to the electrification of the world economy; neighboring Chile is the world’s largest producer of the metal.

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Flagging

May 7:

  • The conclave to elect the next pope begins in Vatican City.
  • Disney, Arm Holdings, and DoorDash report quarterly earnings.
  • Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal compete in the Champions League semifinal in Paris.
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Curio
The cover of “I Regret Almost Everything,” by Keith McNally.
Simon & Schuster

A new memoir pulls back the curtain on one of New York’s most influential — and cantankerous — creative minds. Veteran restaurateur Keith McNally might not be a household name, but he’s behind renowned establishments like Balthazar, Minetta Tavern, The Odeon, and Pastis — the last of which Sex and the City’s Carrie Bradshaw once called “the only restaurant that seemed to exist.” More recently, McNally has gone viral for his public celebrity feuds, on which he dishes new details in I Regret Almost Everything. While culinary glory is usually reserved for chefs, with restaurateurs consigned to managing staff and crunching numbers, McNally proves that “the best of them are also auteurs,” The Atlantic wrote — they curate that “inexplicable, know-it-when-you-see-it thing called ‘vibe.’”

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Semafor Spotlight
An aerial view of Alcatraz.
Fred Greaves/Reuters

Trump’s proposal to reopen Alcatraz is gaining some steam with Congressional Republicans, reported Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott.

The president said it … we’ll look into it,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., told Semafor, adding that he wasn’t sure if Congress would need to send more funding to get it done. Trump aides say the idea isn’t new, but it’s unclear where it originated — even less clear, for the moment, is how it would work.

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