Gulf

1. US-Iran, round one
2. KKR expands Gulf team
3. Gulf neutral in trade war
4. Saudi to stick with USD
5. Huge gamer prize
6. UAE warns heirs to plan

Saudis ❤️ X, and X ❤️ Saudi companies.

Oman mediates Iran nuclear talks

Talks held between Iranian and US officials on Saturday in Muscat were positive enough to warrant a second round this weekend, even as leaders on both sides publicly say they are prepared for war. The discussions were mostly held indirectly through Oman’s foreign minister, but Axios reported the two countries’ representatives spoke directly for around 45 minutes. A second round is reportedly scheduled for Saturday in Rome, with Oman again acting as intermediary.

While few details have emerged, the contours are familiar: the removal of sanctions in exchange for dismantling Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Iran’s supreme leader reportedly agreed to engagement after pressure from the country’s president, who argued that the regime couldn’t afford a military confrontation amid a spiraling economy, The New York Times reported.

This new round of diplomacy echoes the process that led to the Obama-era 2015 accord. But unlike last time, when the early talks were held in secret, most Gulf states have expressed encouragement and Israel has been briefed on the talks.

KKR builds up its Gulf team

Global investment giant KKR is ramping up its presence in the region, appointing former US General and CIA Director David Petraeus as Chairman of KKR Middle East and forming a dedicated regional investment team. The firm has offices in Dubai and Riyadh and has been active in the region since 2009. It plans to deploy more capital in the Middle East, encouraged by “structural reforms, pro-investment policies, and favorable demographic trends accelerating economic growth,” according to its co-CEOs.

KKR’s investments in the Gulf include data center operator Gulf Data Hub, ADNOC Oil Pipelines, and a portfolio of commercial planes from Etihad Airways. The firm sees the Middle East as a region that can’t be “overlooked” due to its low inflation and strong growth, according to a recent report by its global macro analysts.

Analysis: No side is best in trade war

The Gulf has largely avoided the direct effects of US tariffs, but still faces the “impossible choice” of picking a side between Washington and Beijing, Omar Al-Ubaydli, affiliated associate professor of economics at George Mason University, writes in a Semafor column.

The region is “embedded in Asian supply chains while tied to American political and security alliances,” Al-Ubaydli wrote. If Gulf countries “can close ranks and master the art of non-committal diplomatic flattery” there’s a chance they can “maintain their high levels of integration with all elements of the global economy.”

Saudi will stick to the dollar

Goldman Sachs expects Saudi Arabia to stick with the US dollar as oil prices tank and the risk of de-dollarization risk rises. While a weaker greenback erodes the purchasing power of dollar-pegged Gulf currencies like the Saudi riyal, the investment bank said in a note to clients that the kingdom is well positioned to mitigate the risk and avoid an adjustment.

Goldman Sachs last week lowered its price forecast for 2025 to $62 for Brent crude, but the Arab world’s largest economy has ways of shielding itself against a downturn — the bank expects Saudi to increase borrowing; draw down foreign reserves; divest from some domestic assets; and consolidate its finances.

Gamers compete for huge prize in Riyadh

The amount of cash up for grabs at Saudi Arabia’s Esports World Cup, a record-breaking sum in the world of competitive gaming. Some 2,000 individual gamers and 200 teams will compete for a slice of the prize pool over the six-week tournament in Riyadh starting July 7 in popular games like Call of Duty and Fortnite, with the winning club taking home $7 million.

Large payouts are the norm across the kingdom’s sports interests, which are a priority in its broader economic-diversification drive. The Professional Fighters League, a Public Investment Fund-backed mixed martial arts company, will in some cases give fighters more cash per fight than competitor Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). Similarly, Dustin Johnson, the best-paid player in the PIF-backed LIV Golf league, took home nearly six times more cash per tournament than when he competed in the PGA Tour.

UAE renews focus on succession

The United Arab Emirates is encouraging its wealthiest families to step up succession planning as many of the region’s conglomerates face their first generational transitions. At stake: more than $1 trillion. Officials from the UAE economy ministry met with heads of family-run businesses to discuss forming official family offices and to encourage local public listings, Bloomberg reported.

The 2021 death of Majid Al Futtaim was a wakeup call: the Dubai business titan left no will directing who should control his eponymous $16.5 billion retail and entertainment empire, and a special judicial committee had to be set up to oversee the transition. Since then, the UAE has rolled out initiatives to formalize governance of family-run companies.

Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Sukhinder Singh Cassidy, CEO, Xero; Tosin Eniolorunda, Co-Founder and Group CEO, Moniepoint; Matthew Prince, CEO, Cloudflare; Josh Silverman, CEO, Etsy; Everette Taylor, CEO, Kickstarter, and more will join the Small Business and Startups: Access and Opportunity session at the 2025 World Economy Summit. The session will focus on clearing the path for small business success — removing hurdles to capital, accessing technology, and finding the talent to sustain growth.

April 24, 2025 | Washington, DC | Learn More

Diplomacy

• Washington is closing in on an energy pact with Riyadh that could open the door to commercial nuclear development in the kingdom, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during a visit to Saudi Arabia. A framework is expected to be signed within weeks, possibly in time for Trump’s visit to Saudi. — Al Arabiya
• Heads of state in the region are on the move. Read outs are perfunctory, but diplomats say many of the meetings are in preparation for Trump’s upcoming visit to the region. Egypt’s president met with Qatar’s Emir in Doha, and Syria’s president met with UAE’s president in Abu Dhabi.

Energy

• China is set to expand its refining capacity in Saudi Arabia under a new joint venture between Sinopec and Aramco. Yasref, a petrochemical plant on the west coast of Saudi Arabia, will get a major expansion under the deal that gives the Chinese oil company a 37.5% stake.
• Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is considering a bid for the US natural gas assets of Aethon Energy Management, worth around $9 billion. The potential deal comes as the UAE has pledged $1.4 trillion in investment in the world’s largest economy over the next decade. — Bloomberg

Real Estate

• Saudi Arabia introduced a new 5% tax on all real-estate transactions, part of broader efforts to diversify government revenue. Inherited properties and transfers between spouses and close relatives will be exempt. — Arab News

When many advertisers fled Elon Musk’s X, Gulf brands — especially in Saudi Arabia — doubled down, and have been rewarded by the influential platform. Of the 43 companies currently featured as X Business success stories, a page dedicated to X advertisers, 17 operate out of the Middle East, with 11 of those based in Saudi Arabia, Mother Jones reported.

The platform remains widely popular in the region and was not dented by Musk’s politics. After X was acquired by Musk’s AI company, xAI, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal — who personally invested $3 billion in X — posted that his conglomerate and his private office remained the second-largest shareholder of the new company, referring to Musk as his “strategic partner” and friend. The Saudi billionaire said last month that he never marked his stake down, and expects that payments and video integration will push the platform’s value to more than double the $44 billion Musk paid for it in 2022.

Booz Allen Hamilton has submitted recommendations to the US government for how it could save “tens of billions of dollars,” its chief executive told Semafor’s Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson, as one of Washington’s biggest contractors races to salvage a relationship that delivers 98% of its revenues.

The new Trump administration has been turbulent for many CEOs. For Horacio Rozanski, it has put almost all of his roughly $11 billion of annual sales in question. Some of his firm’s contracts have already been axed since President Donald Trump began looking to cut billions of dollars from what the federal government pays firms like Booz Allen, Accenture and Deloitte.