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The South African government’s plan to tackle its energy crisis will facilitate corruption and confu͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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sunny Bamako
snowstorm Johannesburg
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February 13, 2023
semafor

Africa

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Yinka Adegoke
Yinka Adegoke

Hi! Welcome to Semafor Africa where Alexis Akwagyiram and I dig into some of the biggest stories around the continent twice a week.

It feels like poll season in Africa. Well, mainly in Nigeria because the presidential election is only 12 days away. For most of the last six months several polls have put one candidate, Peter Obi, comfortably ahead of the two major parties. But plenty of experienced watchers have questioned whether such polls, some of which are conducted over smartphone apps or online, can ever truly reflect the will of ordinary Nigerians.

A poll conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation think tank in Zimbabwe ahead of the country’s election, expected in July or August, reported the main opposition party to be comfortably in the lead. This has attracted criticism from the ruling party for being too focused on the digitally-savvy urban elite.

But it’s not just voter polls; more governments are paying closer attention to how their citizens feel than in the recent past. It’s another step in the democratic evolution. Mobile survey company Geo Poll recently looked at which services citizens found to be working well in DR Congo. The government was happy to share the results that touted its free education push. A reminder: there are elections coming up in DRC in December.

With relatively young, modern democracies in sub-Saharan Africa it shouldn’t be surprising that the science (or is it an art?) of psephology is not as advanced as it is elsewhere. In the coming months we’ll find out how in touch with real voters these polls have become and what that means for the ongoing development of electoral politics on the continent.

Buy/Sell

➚  Buy: Ethio Telecom. Ethiopia’s finance ministry said the government now wants to sell 45% of its stake in the state-owned telecoms company, Ethio Telecom. The previous plan was to sell 40%. The telecoms industry is widely seen as a prize in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s bid to open up the economy. Efforts to lure investment were slowed by the two-year Tigray war.

Ethio Telecom in Addis Ababa
REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri/File Photo

➘ Sell: Orange’s Towers. French telecom group Orange is considering possible sales of stakes in its mobile towers businesses in Africa and the Middle East. The towers could be sold at a combined valuation of up to $1 billion, Bloomberg reports. The African tower portfolio under review is separate from Totem, Orange’s mobile mast company which it created last year.

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Need To Know

🇰🇪 The U.S. and Kenya on Friday (Feb. 10) wrapped up a week of “productive” virtual meetings over their Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP), a bilateral free trade ‘lite’ agreement the two countries first reached in July 2021. The agreement — aimed at increasing investment, jobs, and economic growth — covers everything from agriculture and digital trade to regulatory practices and workers’ rights.

🇿🇲 Zambia’s finance minister Situmbeko Musokotwane does not want the World Bank to join in restructuring its $13 billion debt. He said the suggestion proposed by China, Zambia’s largest creditor, could delay the country’s economic recovery. “What we are looking for is urgent solutions, not discussions that may drag out the matter,” Musokotwane told the Financial Times. Under long-practiced sovereign lending rules, the World Bank and other multilateral lenders are typically exempt from debt restructuring because they act as lenders of last resort and charge little interest.

🇸🇩 Sudanese military officials said Russia has agreed to Khartoum’s demand for weapons and military equipment. That could pave the way for Russia to open a naval base in the country, the AP reports. If approved, the proposed base on the Red Sea will welcome hundreds of Russian troops and ships, and is set to initially last for 25 years. Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was in Sudan last week as part of a visit to some African countries.

🇬🇦 A presidential term in Gabon will now last five years, down from seven. President Ali Bongo announced the review at a meeting in the capital Libreville with members of opposition parties on Feb. 13, RFI reports. Bongo became president in 2009 after the death of his father who ruled Gabon since 1967. Gabon’s presidential terms are renewable indefinitely.

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Stat

The age of Paul Biya, Cameroon’s president, who celebrates his birthday today. Biya is the oldest head of state in the world. He has been Cameroon’s leader since 1982 and maintains a firm grip on the country despite spending long periods of time overseas.

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Sam Mkokeli

South Africa’s state of disaster energy plan opens the door to corruption

President Cyril Ramaphosa giving the State of the Nation Address in Cape Town.
Reuters/Esa Alexander/Pool

THE NEWS

The South African government’s plan to tackle its energy crisis will facilitate corruption and confuse energy policy, the main opposition party and business leaders warned amid fears the graft that has entered other parts of public life will make the energy problems worse.

President Cyril Ramaphosa on Thursday declared South Africa’s crippling electricity blackouts a “state of disaster”, and suspended key regulatory steps to speed up investment from private energy producers and reduce reliance on ailing state power utility Eskom. He also said he would appoint a minister for electricity.

Opposition parties are preparing lawsuits in response. They argue the plan will encourage corruption by making it easier to execute procurement scams, such as kickbacks for awarding contracts to politically-connected businesses. That  was the case when a similar arrangement was in place at the height of the fight against Covid-19.

Cas Coovadia, the chief executive of Business Unity South Africa, a non-profit company that represents the interests of businesses in the country, said the creation of an electricity minister was “a bad idea that will add to confusion and turf wars rather than solve the problem.”

SAM’S VIEW

Ramaphosa’s move risks a repeat of recent history. South Africa was gripped by several scandals over alleged corruption at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic when a similar state of disaster was implemented.

South African investigators last year earmarked COVID-19 contracts worth around 2.1 billion rand ($137.12 million) as being related to suspected corruption. Ramaphosa authorized the investigation into coronavirus spending in 2020 following a public outcry. The country’s Special Investigating Unit (SIU), which revealed that it uncovered cases of personal protective equipment being overpriced and services not delivered despite money being paid, said it was “unacceptable that so many contracts associated with saving lives and protecting livelihoods were irregular, unlawful or fraudulent.” It found irregularities in 2,803 government contracts.

True, simplifying procurement may help speed up repairs at Eskom facilities by private contractors. But the dangers associated with corruption far outweigh the benefits. Eskom has a track record of corruption. In one infamous example, the company once paid 80,000 rand ($4,469) for knee guards worth less than 300 rand ($16). In January it emerged that the outgoing chief executive, who took on alleged criminal syndicates that have drained the state utility through corrupt contracts, allegedly survived an attempt to kill him with cyanide-laced coffee.

Ramaphosa also seems to be trying to centralize power around the presidency, with the new minister working closely with him. This would mean that with the new structure Eskom will come under the stewardship of the Public Enterprises Department but receive policy direction from the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy.

That’s likely to exacerbate Incoherence in the government’s energy strategy, which has bedeviled the economy for several years and stems from too many officials working with competing interests.

Regardless, rolling blackouts are likely to continue for some time, despite the declaration of the state of disaster. Solving the power crisis involves cutting through a cluttered political landscape, rather than tinkering with cabinet posts and the laws. Ramaphosa is merely adding deck chairs when the entire economic ship is sinking.

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

Ramaphosa’s plans dovetail with Eskom’s strategy to increase energy availability and stop rolling blackouts within two years, two government officials told Semafor. The plans include bringing in external experts to work with plant managers at its top six priority power stations, working with the World Bank to develop a procurement system that will help it reduce price inflation by suppliers, an “aggressive” cost-cutting plan to free up money to be used to rehabilitate machinery, and improved maintenance planning.

THE VIEW FROM CAPE TOWN

John Steenhuissen, leader of the opposition Democratic Alliance, said his party would go to court to oppose the declaration, which he said would create a “looting frenzy”. In a separate move, one of the labor unions at Eskom is working with the opposition United Democratic Movement to launch a legal challenge to the use of the Disaster Management Act.

Meanwhile, Lawson Naidoo, who heads the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution civil society group, said it is “clear the president is concerned about the potential of corruption under this measure” which is why Ramaphosa announced that the auditor-general will oversee procurement.

NOTABLE

  • “Criminal networks are deeply, deeply entrenched in Eskom and have taken control of key aspects of its operations,” an official at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime told the Financial Times when it reported on the extent of graft in the company. Experts say the criminal practices range from the theft of coal to the targeting of whistleblowers by assassins.
  • The ruling African National Congress is still trying to recover from the findings of a damning report that claimed billions of dollars were stolen from state coffers under Ramaphosa’s predecessor, Jacob Zuma. The Zondo commission, a judge-led panel, delivered its findings last year in a 5,000 page report that said state resources were plundered in what it called “an assault on our democracy.”
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Evidence

China’s trade with African countries grew by 11.1% to $282 billion last year boosted by a rise in commodity prices and increased importation from the continent, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China. Chinese exports to Africa topped $164.5 billion while imports from the continent reached $117.51 billion. Last December, China started a new duty-free policy to boost African imports with nearly 9,000 commodities and goods. China has pledged to import up to $300 billion in African goods by 2025.

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One Good Text

Marieme Diop leads the International Finance Corporation’s venture capital investments in startups and funds active in Francophone Africa, covering over 20 countries. She is also an angel investor.

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Staff Picks
  • After welcoming Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to its capital Bamako last week, Mali’s military junta is now looking to resume a risky battle with rebels and jihadists in the northern region of the West African country, writes Joe Penney for PassBlue. The junta has already called for  French peacekeeping soldiers to leave Mali and effectively unravel a 2015 peace accord which has provided some stability in the troubled region.
  • What is at stake for the future of African intellectual property ownership and global cultural leadership? This is at the heart of a passionate discussion on the CSIS Africa podcast between host Mvemba Dizolele and Claude Grunitzky, best known as the founder of Trace, an African pop culture magazine and TV channel. Grunitzky, currently CEO of New York based venture investment fund Equity Alliance, explains the challenge of convincing Africa’s high net worth individuals of the case for investing in the continent’s cultural heritage.
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Outro

France doesn’t like being the “bad guy” in Wakanda Forever

Lagos premiere of Wakanda Forever
Marvel/Disney

For some, it’s nothing more than a slice of Afrofuturist entertainment. But that’s not how France’s armed forces minister Sébastien Lecornu sees Wakanda Forever, the sequel to Black Panther. Lecornu has criticized the depiction of French soldiers in the movie. The film includes a scene in which French mercenaries brought before an international hearing accused of stealing from the fictional country of Wakanda wear costumes similar to the uniforms worn by troops deployed in Mali. Lecornu denounced the “false and deceptive representations” of the country’s military force. It comes at a sensitive moment for France, a former colonial power in much of West Africa. Paris is embroiled in a battle for influence in the subregion with Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron has accused Moscow of feeding anti-French propaganda to serve “predatory” ambitions in troubled African nations.

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— Yinka, Alexis, and Alexander



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