Flagship

Growing fears of Middle East conflict

A terror attack in Iran, growing tensions in the Red Sea, Israel’s continued pounding of Gaza, and the killing of a senior Hamas leader in Lebanon fueled fears of a metastasizing conflict in the Middle East. Border clashes intensified between Israeli forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese group, after a senior Hamas leader was killed in Beirut, a strike blamed on Israel and for which Hezbollah’s leader vowed “response and punishment.” The U.S. and several allies separately warned Yemeni Houthi militants, also supported by Iran, of unspecified “consequences” if they persisted in attacking vessels in the Red Sea, a key route that shipping companies are increasingly avoiding, disrupting global trade.

Twin bombings in Iran at a memorial for a revered general, meanwhile, ramped up worries further — despite being apparently unrelated to the Israel-Hamas war and not yet claimed by any group. The developments mean that “the chances of a regional war in the Middle East go up from 15 percent to as high as 30 percent,” a retired former NATO commander told The New York Times. “Still relatively low, but higher than before, and certainly uncomfortably high.”

Antibiotic targets resistant microbes

A new class of antibiotics kills one of the three most dangerous strains of drug-resistant bacteria. Antimicrobial resistance claims about 1.3 million lives a year, and Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) is a particular concern. It’s difficult to kill because its outer membrane blocks most antibiotics. Scientists tested 45,000 different compounds for antibacterial activity and found that one, zosurabalpin, reduced CRAB levels 100,000-fold in infected mice, apparently by disrupting the formation of its membrane. Other resistant bacteria have similar membranes: The new compound could “open a lot of doors” for antibiotic development, one researcher said, although “there’s a long way to go” before it can be confidently shown to work in humans.

5% chance of AI apocalypse

The median artificial-intelligence researcher believes there is a 5% chance that AI will cause human extinction. The finding comes from a survey of 2,700 AI scientists into the likely timescales and outcomes of AI development, the largest to date. The average researcher also thought it 50% likely that AI will achieve certain landmarks — such as writing songs indistinguishable from those by hit artists, or coding an entire payment-processing website from scratch — by 2028, and outperform humans at every possible task by 2047. Long-term forecasts are necessarily uncertain, and AI prognostication has been wrong before, but the result shows that researchers don’t think it’s “implausible that advanced AI destroys humanity,” a survey author told New Scientist.

Harvard ouster points to culture war

The resignation of Harvard’s president — sparked by plagiarism accusations — was in fact the latest salvo in a wider culture war, both of the key figures at the center of the scandal agreed. Criticism of Claudine Gay was concentrated among conservatives alleging American universities were biased against them. She herself argued in The New York Times that the push to oust her “was about more than one university and one leader,” a phrase largely repeated by a conservative journalist who led efforts to remove her: “The successful campaign to topple Harvard’s president is about much more than Claudine Gay,” Christopher Rufo wrote in The Wall Street Journal, framing it as part of a broader push — “a grueling form of trench warfare” — against organizations perceived as left-wing.

China expertise declines in US

China-related expertise is atrophying in the United States, thanks to falling funding for language study and research, misperceptions about Americans’ safety there, and the securitization of bilateral ties, a new piece argued. Fewer U.S. students are studying Mandarin, conducting research on China, or traveling to the country, the China scholar Rory Truex wrote in The Washington Post. His argument echoed a 2021 study by a China-focused U.S. nonprofit that found that as tensions have risen, “many China-related topics are viewed through the lens of security, both within and outside academia.” As Truex put it, “in this moment of U.S.-China competition, we must do more than invest in weapons and semiconductors. We must invest in understanding.”

TikTok owner targets Amazon and Google

ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, is recruiting U.S. researchers in fields well outside computer science, such as computational biology, quantum chemistry, and physics. Forbes reported that the Chinese company advertised at least 17 positions in New York, California, and Washington state, apparently in a bid to challenge giants such as Google in the use of artificial intelligence for drug discovery and materials science: One ad says the company wants to “make a meaningful impact on global healthcare.” The firm is also aiming to expand its U.S. e-commerce business tenfold this year, up to $17.5 billion, setting up a potential clash with Amazon: It already made about $20 billion in online shopping revenues worldwide, mostly from Southeast Asia.

El Salvador hails drop in murders

El Salvador said murders in the country fell by nearly 70% last year, recording the lowest homicide rate in the Americas apart from Canada. Although experts have questioned the figures, President Nayib Bukele’s crackdown on gangs that once ran swaths of the country has been popular, giving him an approval rating as high as 90% ahead of elections next month. El Salvador’s apparent success in combating organized crime has encouraged leaders across Latin America to adopt similar measures: In response to a recent surge in violence, Ecuador’s new President Daniel Noboa announced this week that his country would build two maximum-security prisons inspired by El Salvador’s CECOT, the biggest jail in the Americas.

January 14-19, 2024 | Switzerland

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US to expand W. Africa presence

The U.S. is looking to deploy military drone operations along West Africa’s coast in response to a surge in Islamist violence across the region. Relatively stable countries in the region — including Ghana, Benin, and Ivory Coast — are now threatened by militias that have gained footholds across the Sahel, a semi-arid area to the north. Coups in several nations there, many of which used to rely on Western allies for security partnerships, have made the Sahel “the center of the world’s most active Islamist insurgency,” The Wall Street Journal reported. The disorder has created an opening for Russia and its mercenary group Wagner: Last month, Moscow reopened its embassy in Burkina Faso after more than 30 years.

Looking to the stars in 2024

2024 is shaping up to be a big year for space exploration. SpaceX plans to launch 124 rockets this year, a major increase over the 98 it sent to space last year: No other organization has managed more than 63 in a single year. The Europa Clipper spacecraft will also launch in 2024, looking for life on Jupiter’s icy moon, and the Artemis mission will fly humans to the moon’s orbit for the first time in a half-century, although a landing on the moon’s surface is not scheduled until 2025. An Asian space race is likewise expected to hot up as Japan’s, China’s, and India’s space programs all aim for milestones. Japan hopes to land a spacecraft on the moon this month.

Warhol art theft suspect surrenders

The final suspect in an investigation into a major U.S. art theft ring handed himself in to authorities in Pennsylvania. Nine people were accused of stealing artworks over 20 years: Eight turned themselves in, four of whom pleaded guilty to thefts including the 2005 heist of works such as Jackson Pollock’s Springs Winter, valued at $11.6 million, and Andy Warhol’s Le Grande Passion. They are also accused of taking $1 million in baseball memorabilia from the Yogi Berra Museum and millions in other valuables from museums and stores across the East Coast and Midwest. Nicholas Dombek, the last remaining suspect, was denied bail after surrendering himself on Monday.

Semafor’s 2024 World Economy Summit, on April 17-18, will feature conversations with global policymakers and power brokers in Washington, against the backdrop of the IMF and World Bank meetings.

Chaired by former U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, and in partnership with BCG, the summit will feature 150 speakers across two days and three different stages, including the Gallup Great Hall. Join Semafor for conversations with the people shaping the global economy.

• Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is scheduled to visit his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara for talks expected to focus on the Israel-Hamas war, Syria, and bilateral ties.
• The Philippines and the U.S. conclude a two-day joint patrol in the South China Sea.
• Argylle, a new spy thriller, is published.

Benjy Sarlin is Semafor’s Washington Bureau Chief.

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A new exhibition by sculptor Anish Kapoor probes materiality, color, space, and form in a Renaissance setting. Untrue Unreal, running in Florence’s Fondazione Palazzo Strozzi until Feb. 4, features both early and recent works from the India-born artist — including those monumental in scale, Artnet reported. Arturo Galansino, curator of the show, said the result is a collection where “symmetry, harmony, and rigor are called into question, and the boundaries between material and immaterial dissolve … prompting us to question what is untrue or unreal.”

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