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Soon after Donald Trump returned to office with a promise to settle Russia’s war in Ukraine immediately, a skeptical Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned the president about Vladimir Putin’s intentions, according to a senior White House official — while making clear that he supported Trump’s plan to strengthen ties with the Russian president.
“A lot of that has obviously turned out to be true,” the official said of Rubio’s doubts about Putin. “And the president has recognized that … ‘[Putin will] talk nicely to me on the phone, but then he’ll go bomb the shit out of Ukraine that very same night.’”
It was classic Rubio, and unusual in a White House that mostly follows the president, rather than trying to change his direction.
The former Florida senator’s ability to delicately nudge Trump on issues he feels strongly about has accrued him power in Washington that would have seemed unthinkable during a 2016 campaign that got ugly at times between the two men. It’s been a dizzying 10 years since then-presidential candidate Rubio declared that, should he win the White House, “there will be no pleadings for meetings with Vladimir Putin,” whom he called “a gangster and a thug.”
Many of Rubio’s fellow Republicans still view him as a moderating influence on the president’s more strongman-friendly instincts; just as many of his past Democratic colleagues have come to regret their votes to confirm him.
The reality of Rubio lies somewhere in the middle of Hill Republicans’ hopes and Hill Democrats’ disappointment. The former Florida senator is still more hawkish than most others in Trump’s network, deeply critical of China and dubious of Russia while his long-held opposition to Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro is fueling Trump’s military buildup in the region.
But Rubio is also, still, a politician — one working for a boss who doesn’t appreciate dissent, and one who openly talks about him as a future candidate for national office. So even as MAGA descends into an identity crisis, he’s managing to stay mostly on its good side.
“If you’re in President Trump’s inner circle, his inner orbit, and he trusts and respects you, you’re given that ‘MAGA Halo,’” said Matt Terrill, who served as chief of staff for Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “And right now, there is no question that Secretary Rubio has the MAGA Halo.”
Part of the 54-year-old’s evolution from Trump critic to close ally stems from the GOP’s broader shift to align with the president on most issues, both foreign and domestic. Those who know Rubio best argue that his views have changed gradually, not as a part of any plan to curry favor with Trump.
But two people close to Rubio acknowledged to Semafor that he’s still not pure MAGA when it comes to foreign policy. Still, he remains in the ballpark of what’s acceptable to Trump’s base — while making sure not to get publicly crosswise with Trump like some of his Cabinet predecessors.
“Our mission is clear: to put America first,” State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said in a statement. “There’s no ambiguity about what the administration stands for, and that clarity comes from President Trump’s leadership.”
One of the people close to Rubio said the secretary sees his “America First” foreign policy as aligned with the nuanced view of the president. Trump and his secretary of state/national security adviser, this person said, see “America First” not as avoiding all global entanglements, but rather as conducting all foreign affairs with a primary focus on how to benefit the US.
“I think the fundamental question the administration asks is: What benefit is this relationship with the country, potential action, trade agreement, etc — what is the benefit for the American people?” the first person close to Rubio noted.
Which may help explain why Trump, who campaigned as a noninterventionist, isn’t quite governing like one.
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What’s next for Rubio remains an open question. Trump is pleased with the current dynamics, and White House sources said there’s no plans to end the secretary of state’s dual role as acting national security adviser.
“Under the President and Secretary’s leadership, the administration’s foreign policy accomplishments speak for themselves,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. She cited “persuading Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defense, facilitating US-made weapons sales to NATO allies, obliterating Iran’s nuclear facilities, and more.”
The open speculation about a future Rubio presidential run, however, might evaporate closer to the 2028 primary, given his close relationship with Vice President JD Vance.
Perhaps Rubio’s biggest piece of unfinished business lies in Venezuela, where he is taking a lead role in US policy and courting discontent among some of Trump’s backers.
Some Republicans are cheering on the administration’s strikes and flirtation with military operations on the ground to take out Maduro, agreeing with the first person close to Rubio that his regime is “destabilizing in our hemisphere.”
Others in the party are skeptical of a military buildup that they see as contradicting Trump’s past resistance to regime change (something the administration has carefully avoided saying it wants). Those MAGA critics of the administration’s Venezuela campaign are focused on Rubio, even as his allies make clear that he’s not making the final decisions.
“He actually does have the ear of President Trump,” said Terrill. “[But] obviously it’s President Trump’s agenda at the end of the day.”
Shelby’s view
Rubio’s foreign policy views don’t always align with the MAGA movement. But that’s just one part of a bigger conundrum facing the president’s party: How does MAGA get on the same page once Trump prepares to leave office?
While Vance is undoubtedly the frontrunner to succeed the president, the 2028 primary is a long way off — and Rubio’s success striking a balance between the establishment and Trump’s insurgents may yet prove helpful to his political future. For now, it’s clear that Rubio is paying no price for hanging onto his hawkishness.
Room for Disagreement
Perhaps Rubio’s biggest stumble walking the line between MAGA and the rest of the GOP came last month, when several senators attending the Munich Security Conference said he had told them a leaked draft plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine was a “wish list” of Moscow’s.
The resulting furor over the draft plan, which Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff had helped negotiate, slowed down progress on talks to end the war that are still ongoing. Rubio responded on X that the draft was “a strong framework” that also included Ukraine’s input.
Notable
- Rubio was also credited with Trump’s October shift in Ukraine’s direction, per Bloomberg.
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