The News
The Senate will try again this week to rein in President Donald Trump’s tariff regime — even as some of its Republicans quietly hope for the justices across the street to squash it.
If the Supreme Court doesn’t check Trump on tariffs, “Congress doesn’t have a role in determining what constitutes an emergency. This president, and future presidents, will take it upon himself to creatively define and redefine that,” one Republican senator told Semafor.
The GOP senator added: “This should be Congress’ call if you’re increasing taxes on the American people through tariff policy. We are the ones who dictate tax policy. This is a form of taxation.”
The high court will hear arguments next week in a case that challenges Trump’s ability to use national emergencies to impose tariffs. The president has already fretted in public about the difficulty his administration would face if the conservative justices rein him in, warning that “we will be a weakened, troubled financial mess for many, many years to come.”
Trump is much more assured of surviving this week’s Senate votes, which disapprove of his tariffs on Brazil and Canada plus his global levies, but the whiplash of his trade agenda is clearly wearing on GOP senators. A Supreme Court ruling against the tariffs would have the benefit of defusing what could soon become a brutal internecine fight for Republicans.
The latest schism stems from 10 percent tariffs that Trump slapped on Canada in retaliation against the Ontario premier, who ran an ad showing former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. Those new Canada tariffs jolted free-trade Republicans, prompting Democrats to force a series of tariff votes.
In theory, Congress could stop Trump’s tariffs through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — but that requires veto-proof majorities. And House Republican leaders changed their rules to prevent such a vote in the lower chamber.
Which leaves the Supreme Court as the only practical way to unravel Trump’s plans in the eyes of pro-trade Republicans and Democrats who say the tariffs are hampering the economy and raising prices.
“I do not think that you can invoke this law that the president is relying on,” said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. “To me, the constitutional authority is pretty clear in vesting in Congress. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it will come out that way.”
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, even took the rare step of signing onto an amicus brief which argued that Trump “has usurped Congress’s constitutional authority by impermissibly” using his emergency tariff powers. She, Collins and Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., all told Semafor they hoped the Supreme Court stopped Trump.
“The Canada retaliatory tariffs are not appropriate, and he had no basis for advancing those,” Murkowski said. “The president has said very clearly that ‘I didn’t like what the premier of Ontario did.’ And boom.”
Other GOP senators are more privately rooting against the tariffs in court.
For the Trump administration, the looming Supreme Court decision on tariffs is possibly the most important outstanding high court decision on its agenda; the president sees tariffs as a way to bring money and manufacturing into the US. Trump suggested earlier this month that he might attend oral arguments next month.
“President Trump lawfully exercised the tariff powers granted to him by Congress to defend our national and economic security from foreign threats. The president’s tariffs remain in effect, and we look forward to ultimate victory on this matter,” said Kush Desai, a spokesperson for the White House.
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in September that the government “would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs” if the high court strikes them down, adding that a delayed decision would “cause significant disruption” and affect up to $1 trillion in tariffs.
Regardless of the outcome, the Trump administration is confident that the ruling “won’t sideline their overall plans,” one person close to the White House told Semafor. “The president has many options.”
In fact, officials have prepared for alternative scenarios for months; Bessent recently noted that one fallback idea would be to tap into a 1930 tariff law, though he acknowledged any other authority would be less “powerful” than the one Trump has used.
The administration may also ramp up its use of sector-by-sector tariffs, the person close to the White House added. Trump has also used so-called Section 232 tariffs, which can be imposed on imports for national security reasons.
Paul said a lot of his colleagues agree with his position but aren’t ready to actually vote against Trump. The Senate is set to vote Tuesday evening on Trump’s tariffs on Brazil and later this week on the Canada tariffs. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., is expected to vote for the Brazil measure but called the rest “messaging” votes.
“They’re all grumbling. They’re mad. You hear them asking Jamieson Greer tough questions, but I don’t know if they’re ready to do it yet,” Paul said, predicting that “there’s still more bad news to come in the farm economy.
“And when it comes, I think maybe” more Republicans vote against Trump, he added.
But a floor vote to cross Trump is a rebuke that only a handful of senators have stepped forward to offer, and many still hope it doesn’t come to that. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said “the premier of Ontario made a mistake, and the 10 percent tariff will soon blow off.”
“The tariff policy continues to evolve. But, I mean, we have a lot of bilateral trade with Canada. Canada and Mexico are our two biggest trading partners, and I hope the long-term strategy here is to create more trading opportunities, not less,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.
Vice President JD Vance gave a strong defense of Trump’s tariffs to Senate Republicans at a private Tuesday lunch ahead of the votes, arguing they are “working,” said Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla.
Room for Disagreement
Some Republicans think Trump will find a way to continue playing “tariff man,” regardless of what the Supreme Court rules.
“The president’s got multiple statutory tools to continue to use tariffs. And I don’t think they’re ever going to dissuade him. He likes the leverage it provides,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
Still, he said he hopes Trump’s top advisers have “got a plan for landing the plane.”
The View From Democrats
Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said Tuesday that he’s asked his staff to come up with as many ways as possible to take on Trump’s tariffs. He said even small numbers of GOP defections can sway the president.
“The Supreme Court will decide whether tariffs are even an appropriate tool to be used under IEEPA. But I’m standing strong for the position that we shouldn’t just let a president manufacture emergencies,” Kaine said.
Burgess and Shelby’s View
It’s easy to see why free-trading Republicans hope the Supreme Court will bail them out: They would get the result they want without the headache of opposing the president on the record.
But Trump is already making clear that he’ll work to find other ways to implement his tariff agenda even if the court rules against him. So expect this to keep dividing the GOP.
Notable
- Republicans were already signaling weeks before the 2024 election that as much as they dislike tariffs, they wouldn’t stop Trump from imposing them, as we reported.
Eleanor Mueller contributed.

