The News
Half of Africa’s population lives in countries where governance has worsened over the past decade, as deteriorating regional security has undermined democratic progress. The Ibrahim Index of African Governance said the decline in democracy could in turn fuel greater conflict, feeding a cycle of falling living standards.
Burkina Faso was listed among the countries with the most deteriorated governance scores. One of several nations in the Sahel — a region that straddles the Sahara desert — the country has experienced several coups in recent years.
The report recommends “immediate actions are taken” to improve security and bolster the rule of law, as the effects of both on democracy are “difficult to offset in the long run.”
SIGNALS
Likely increase in migration from Sahel to Europe will be ‘significant’
It is highly likely that the democratic backsliding and worsening security in the Sahel will “exponentially increase” migration from the region, particularly to Europe, an expert wrote for the Council on Foreign Relations. A 2015 European Union law that sought to curb migration from the region was revoked in 2023, making almost “certain” that people fleeing the Sahel will see Europe as a potential destination, German political foundation Friedrich Ebert Stiftung argued, which could increase security risks. The close relationship between some Sahel states and Russia could also make any European intervention to prevent or limit such migration particularly challenging, the group noted.
Aid to Sahel could address some of migration’s root causes
In the US, Congress began in September the process to reauthorise a foreign aid bill that would reorganize assistance to various countries — many in the Sahel region — with the stated aim of intervening early to help countries bolster their security and stabilize their government. The US in 2018 passed the Global Fragility Act with such early intervention in mind, and while it has little to show for it, “the core of the strategy is correct,” an Africa expert told Foreign Policy. Since then, international terror groups have gained more footholds in the region, and experts have warned that the US must “get back in the game.”