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Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Japan and a longtime Democratic politician, says his country should apply lessons from the Cold War to its global competition with China.
Emanuel, a leading Biden administration critic of China, said in an interview with Semafor that the US and its allies should form a new coalition to deter what he describes as China’s “economic coercion,” “mercantilism,” and “debt-trap diplomacy” against countries in Asia, Africa and beyond. The idea, which Emanuel laid out in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, would involve the US and allies forming a trade-defense coalition backed by a NATO-like pledge in which countries agree to come to the economic aid of another if it is the target of a Chinese pressure campaign.
“There was a lot of bump and grind in the 70-year period of the Cold War, but I would say to you that our economic statecraft, our political statecraft, our security statecraft was more aligned and more integrated than you can say we are today,” Emanuel told Semafor in a phone interview. While he resisted the notion that the US is in a Cold War with China, he added: “I think there are lessons to be drawn from the Cold War of how you create coherence to your deterrence.”
Emanuel insisted that he’s also not calling for an “Asian NATO,” an idea that has been raised by new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Emanuel said he believes that the US has succeeded in isolating China through security and diplomatic partnerships, but he argues America’s economic strategy as it relates to pushing back on China needs work.
“We’ve been pretty effective as a counterbalance against China, and as I say, China the isolator becomes isolated,” he said. “Now, all I’m saying is, we’ve got to get the economic statecraft up to par with what we’re doing on the security front, what we’re doing on the political/diplomatic front.”
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The US has deepened cooperation with allies in Asia during the Biden administration as countries have grown more wary of China’s island building, aggressive military tactics, and trade practices. In some cases, that has meant historical foes joining forces. President Biden brought Japan and South Korea together with the US at an unprecedented Camp David summit last year, and brought together the leaders of Japan and the Philippines together for a trilateral summit this past spring. Then there’s security pacts like AUKUS, which is designed to deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Australia at a time when China is developing its own capabilities.
However, Emanuel argues that the US and its allies will not be in the best position to counter things like China’s retaliatory tariffs without a more sound, integrated economic strategy. In his Wall Street Journal op-ed, he specifically pointed to China’s trade restrictions on Australia after it called for an independent COVID-19 origins inquiry in 2020, and on Lithuania after it opened a Taiwan trade office the following year.
“If you want to be an effective deterrent, you have to play on all fields. You can’t play on two out of the three. You’re just going to be as effective as the weakest link,” he said.
Morgan’s view
There’s no doubt that China’s behavior has pushed the US and its regional allies closer. But that doesn’t mean that building a coalition like this would be easy.
The US and its allies, most still reliant on trade with Beijing, have varying levels of comfort when it comes to economic strategies toward China. The Japanese, for instance, have worried about retaliation from China as Tokyo discusses with Washington new semiconductor controls targeting exports to Beijing. Emanuel insisted, however, that his vision for the coalition would involve offering benefits to impacted countries rather than focusing on “penalties” on China.
Protectionism is also on the rise in the US, which looks likely to block the proposed acquisition of US Steel by Japan-based Nippon Steel for national security reasons. Such a move would introduce new tension between Washington and Tokyo, though Emanuel played down any impact when I asked if uncertainty over the US Steel deal would undermine American efforts to strengthen economic ties with allies.
“The US-Japan alliance is bigger, deeper, richer than a single transaction,” he replied.
The View From China
In a statement to Semafor, Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, suggested Emanuel’s proposal amounts to an effort to contain China.
“The so-called ‘multilateral economic containment strategy’ is essentially a pan-security and pan-ideological approach to normal trade exchanges, and a ‘small courtyard and high wall,’” he said. “We should work together to create an international, market-oriented and law-based environment for economic and trade cooperation and make economic globalization more inclusive and beneficial to all.”
Notable
- There are some in Washington who believe the US is locked in a Cold War with China.
- Chinese stocks tumbled this week amid doubts about the country’s stimulus plans to aid its ailing economy.
- China inked several green infrastructure deals with African nations at a summit in Beijing last month.