The News
Democrats may still get a partial health care victory in the shutdown fight. They almost certainly won’t get anything curtailing President Donald Trump’s unilateral power to cancel federal spending.
Infuriated by Trump’s aggressive use of his executive authority to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, Democrats put language curbing it in their alternative spending bill. Even some Republicans have joined them in fuming as the president’s budget chief reverses Congress with rescissions or spending freezes in red and blue states.
But the chances of Trump signing a bill that cuts his own power are near zero. The White House opposes any attempt to curtail his control over spending as part of a government funding bill, according to a senior administration official, and Republicans say there’s little chance they could talk him into it.
“I’m almost laughing,” said Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., of Democrats’ proposal to limit Trump’s executive spending power. “No, he won’t sign it. I think it’s a joke.”
That roadblock threatens to eventually split Democrats when — or if —- they get a palatable offer from the GOP to open the government.
If Democrats’ current position cracks, once the government reopens there’s going to be a negotiation on their push to revive expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies. That’s in part because constituents in both parties are facing premium increases as a result of the expiration.
But a large Democratic contingent may still struggle to vote for any deal that doesn’t also curb the power of Trump and his budget director to unilaterally rescind money or slash spending through party-line GOP votes.
Many Democrats see little point in negotiating any spending bills that Trump can unravel so easily.
“That’s what I mean when I say, no blank check for Donald Trump,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., whose constituents are hit inordinately by a government shutdown. “Donald Trump’s been shutting down this government since day one. He’s just been shutting down the pieces that he wants.”
He added: “The challenge we’ve got these days is the only actor that counts is Donald Trump, so [Republicans] all cave.”
Know More
The Supreme Court on Sept. 26 gave Trump the green light to hold onto $4 billion that Congress appropriated for foreign aid. Though not a final decision, it signaled his administration will likely be allowed to continue to “impound” funds as it sees fit — incurring the wrath of Democrats who say doing so goes against the intent of the 1974 Impoundment Control Act.
Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., told Semafor that Democrats “need to open the government” before Republicans will engage on asserting the power of the purse for Congress: “We can have talks after the government’s open.”
Trump hasn’t issued an explicit veto threat for the provisions Democrats seek, but most Republicans believe it’s implicit.
That certainty hasn’t wavered even as some senior GOP appropriators castigate Vought’s actions.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, said his decisions look “punitive” and urged the administration to cool it during the shutdown: “Let’s not further divide people politically. This is already stressful enough, and we just don’t need to do that.”
Most GOP senators scoffed at the concept of chipping away at the White House’s power as a condition of reopening the government.
“Not this president,” Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., told Semafor. “No president is going to sign something to reduce executive power. President Biden wouldn’t have signed that either. That’s unrealistic.”
Heightening the tension: Vought’s continued efforts to penalize Democrats by shutting down government-funded infrastructure projects in primarily blue states. He has also threatened to lay off, instead of furlough, certain federal workers — meaning those employees won’t receive backpay when the government reopens.
Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., said those decisions are “illegal” and said the shutdown does not give Trump “new powers.” She said the freezes to projects in New Jersey, New York, Illinois and other states “absolutely” makes it harder for Democrats to vote for a spending bill.
Still, Democrats seem to know that health care is both a more realistic goal — and one that resonates with the public.
Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., sharply criticized the freeze of a Chicago rail project as “immoral.” She said that though tying Trump’s hands is at “the top of our list, right now I’m fighting for health care.”
“It’s hard for the country right now, with all of the chaos and mud that gets thrown in the air every single day, to focus on five things,” said Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M. “Health care is the thing that my constituents are thinking about all the time.”
Room for Disagreement
Some Democrats think they should continue pushing for spending concessions anyway, because of Trump’s chaotic decision-making process.
“He’ll wake up one morning and change his mind on all kinds of things. Depends on the day you catch him. I think sometimes he doesn’t remember what his position was,” said Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz.
Burgess and Eleanor’s View
Because it’s so hard to see the president agreeing to any reductions in his power, Republican leaders will work overtime to keep Vought’s abilities intact.
That will give plenty of Democrats an easy reason to vote against any spending bill, because they do not believe Trump will honor it.
Yet a lot of Republicans — including Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins — don’t like the rescissions or the budget freezes.
So it’s possible the GOP critics of that approach are able to slow down Vought through other means, perhaps by vowing not to support any more rescissions this Congress.
Notable
- Red states are keeping their energy grants, NOTUS reports.
- The shutdown cuts are a real political risk, according to the Washington Post.
- We reported last week some Republicans want Vought to take it easy.