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The final American troops in Iraq are scheduled to depart today as the deadline for their withdrawal takes effect, ending nearly two decades of US military presence in the country.
“This is the culmination of years of negotiations that round out decades-long support for Iraqi security forces, making sure that they have the capacity to take over responsibility for the security of Iraq,” said Jen Gavito, a former top career State Department official working on Middle East policy.
But the transition carries risks — both for US counterterrorism efforts against the Islamic State and the ongoing US conflict with Iran. “ISIS, while significantly diminished, is not entirely defeated,” Gavito said.
The withdrawal also marks a “dramatic change” to the US-Iraq relationship and could benefit Iran, said Victoria Taylor, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
“This has been a goal of the Iranians throughout the region: to see the departure of US troops,” Taylor continued. “I think they are celebrating the US withdrawal from Iraq right now.”
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The US invaded Iraq in 2003 and initially withdrew in 2011, before returning in 2014 to fight ISIS. Since then, American forces have supported the counter ISIS-campaign and trained and equipped Iraqi security forces. Approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq remained before the withdrawal.
The troops’ departure comes as Iraq’s government faces pressure from the Trump administration to disarm militia groups. The Iraqi government had initially set Sept. 30 as the deadline for disarmament, coinciding with the US withdrawal, but Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi pushed the deadline to June 2027.
Taylor noted disarming the groups will be difficult. “Successive Iraqi prime ministers have argued that the departure of US troops could lay the groundwork for the disarmament of the militias by removing one of the core justifications for their armed resistance. In reality, these groups exist because Iran wants them to exist,” she said. “There’s every sign that Iran will seek to maintain these groups as a lever of Iranian power” as the US-Iran war continues.