Yinka’s view
For decades, the debate around Africa’s natural resources has largely been over who gets the value from what the continent digs up and ships out. But at Semafor’s The Next 3 Billion summit in New York this week, the recurring theme was more nuanced. The question was what economic ecosystems can African economies build around their resources before they leave the continent?
That means moving beyond extraction toward processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and the jobs that can come with them. It also reflects a changing approach to foreign capital. African governments increasingly want partnerships that build domestic capacity, rather than simply finance projects or provide an exit route for commodities.
Nigeria’s trade minister Jumoke Oduwole put the ambition plainly when discussing the country’s talks with US companies on critical minerals, saying her government is looking for “partners that will make sure that the value chain development [and] the jobs are created on Nigerian soil.”
DR Congo’s Prime Minister Judith Suminwa described diversification of both the economy and its foreign partners as a priority, saying partnerships should “bring a plus” to the country. The implication is that the choice is not necessarily between China, the US, Europe or the Gulf, but whether competition among them can be used to secure more lasting economic capacity.
There is a compelling logic to that strategy. Countries that remain primarily exporters of raw materials are vulnerable to commodity cycles and capture relatively little of the value created farther down the supply chain. More refining, processing, power generation and transport infrastructure could create wider economic spillovers.
But there is also a danger in making “value addition” the answer to every development problem. Processing minerals or refining oil requires enormous amounts of reliable electricity, transport infrastructure, capital, and technical expertise. In some cases, importing finished products may still be cheaper than producing them locally. And building a factory does not automatically create a competitive industry.
The more interesting test, then, is whether Africa can turn its resource advantage into productive capacity without turning industrial policy into an expensive exercise in symbolism. The opportunity is real. The harder question is what African economies can build that will remain competitive after the foreign partners and commodity boom move on.
Notable
- Dangote’s Lagos refinery is one of the starkest examples of the economic power of domestic production: It netted $1.8 billion in profit after tax in the first half of this year, more than its total revenue for 2025. The company’s recent IPO was the largest in Africa’s history.