Investors and policymakers are anxiously awaiting tomorrow’s US jobs report — but not sure they can trust it.
The August numbers will be the first since President Donald Trump fired the head of the agency that collects the data, baselessly accusing her of falsifying reports to make the economy look weaker. (More sober criticism followed, focused on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ worsening track record in getting employers to fill out surveys promptly.) The firing will “undermine confidence in the data going forward,” one investment strategist told Reuters last month.
Meanwhile, new job openings have fallen to levels rarely seen since the pandemic and unemployment claims ticked up again. Further clouding the picture — though likely in the White House’s favor — is that an immigration slowdown means the US doesn’t need as many new jobs as it once did. “Today’s breakeven rate is probably a little under 90,000,” versus historical norms of 150,000 or more, Jed Kolko, a senior adviser at the JPMorganChase Institute, told Semafor in July.
Alternatives to BLS data are troubled in their own ways. ADP tracks private sector payrolls thanks to their massive client list but their indicator has diverged sharply from official government numbers in recent months.