View / Southeast Asia’s foray into nuclear power is a climate win with political risks

At the tip of the Bataan Peninsula in the Philippines, flanked by sandy beaches and palm trees, lies a giant concrete dome. From afar, it looks like a Bond villain’s lair. But no bad guys are running a criminal empire there: The Bataan Nuclear Power Plant is the only nuclear plant in all of Southeast Asia. It has never produced a single watt, though. Completed in 1985 under strongman Ferdinand Marcos, it was mothballed by his democratic successors.

That may be about to change. The Philippine government led by Marcos’ son is mulling switching Bataan on. And if other Southeast Asian leaders have their way, there will soon be many more plants like Bataan in the region, a nuclear expansion that could have wide-reaching benefits for local economies and the global climate.

But with this growth comes tricky choices. The region’s nuclear pivot has attracted the attention of the great powers. The United States, China, and Russia are all vying for lucrative contracts to build the new plants. For them, the prize isn’t just money but clout. Supplying nuclear reactors, fueling them, and providing technical support creates long-term dependencies — dependencies that can be exploited for geopolitical gains. For that reason, Southeast Asian leaders should be careful who they work with.

To protect their energy sovereignty, the region’s governments must make sure they choose partners that treat them like equals, and in particular, they should think long and hard before dealing with Beijing and Moscow. The reason: What’s good for China and Russia might not align with what’s good for the region. Both authoritarian states use nuclear exports to lock countries into their sphere of influence. The endgame is to turn partners into vassals.

Southeast Asia’s foray into nuclear power shouldn’t cost it its independence on the global stage. The energy source will be a boon for its carbon footprint, economy, and public health. At present, the region relies heavily on coal, which makes up around half of its electricity supply. As a result, not only are carbon emissions high, but air quality is among the most toxic in the world. This doesn’t have to be the case. With nuclear and renewables, the smog in Southeast Asia’s skies could be significantly diminished.

Besides the potential Bataan switch-on, Indonesia, the most populous country in the region, wants to build 10 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2040 — or roughly 10% of its current electricity supply. Its next-door neighbor, Malaysia, is restarting its nuclear energy program: In July, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced plans to integrate nuclear into the Malaysian energy mix by 2031. To the north, Vietnam is planning to unveil a fleet of reactors by 2035 to provide up to 6.4 GW, and another 8 GW would be built by 2050. Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand are also hoping to harness the power of the atom, while Singapore is considering it.

It won’t be easy to get these projects going. Building nuclear plants is costly, and delays are common. Take the Hinkley Point C plant in the UK. First announced to great acclaim in 2005, it was meant to be operational by 2019. It’s still under construction and will go online in 2029 at the earliest. Moreover, there is also the risk of corruption in a region with a long history of infrastructure projects being derailed by kickbacks. And then there is the fact that countries like Indonesia and the Philippines are volcanic and prone to earthquakes.

But if these pitfalls are avoided, nuclear power could keep Southeast Asia on its upward economic trajectory. Regional electricity demand is expected to triple over the next 25 years, thanks in part to the boom in data centers: There are more than 500 across the region, and they are growing at a rate of about 14% a year. With the advent of AI, data centers are only going to consume more and more electricity. Nuclear can keep them running around the clock.

Unsurprisingly, the Southeast Asian nuclear market is saturated with bidders. Besides China and Russia, companies from Canada, France, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States are also trying to get in on the action.

It’s easy to see why. Selling nuclear technology is big business. But it’s also an important vector of geopolitical influence since it gives the supplier leverage over the client for decades. In the case of authoritarian states, that leverage is ruthlessly exploited. According to political scientist João Paulo Nicolini Gabriel, “Moscow employs Rosatom as a diplomatic tool in the United Nations to avoid sanctions.” Earlier this year, the Russian behemoth stared down the European Commission, which backed down from plans to tax Russian enriched uranium. The cause: Hungary and Slovakia, two countries where Rosatom has built power plants, blocked it.

China takes a similar approach. Think of the China Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) as an atomic extension of the country’s Silk Road strategy. Back in 2016, Chinese state media made clear what role CNNC plays in the country’s grand strategy. Nuclear energy, they said, is “an important cornerstone of strategic power… and a ‘China card’ to play in the country’s international diplomacy”.

A partnership with Rosatom or CNNC is not one of equals. That’s why, as much as possible, Southeast Asian countries should be wary of entrusting them with building their nuclear capabilities.

It’s not too late to change course and go instead with firms like GE-Hitachi (US and Japan), NuScale Power (US), EDF (France), and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (South Korea). They come with fewer strings attached than their Chinese and Russian counterparts. Crucially, they are natural partners for democracies like Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

CNNC, in particular, should be treated with caution. Southeast Asian leaders must remember it’s a vehicle for the same aggressive power treating the region like its backyard. For years now, China has sought to seize islands in the South China Sea. It militarizes them and confronts fishing vessels if they come too close. China has also waged disinformation campaigns in the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, among others. It would be reckless to hand Beijing leverage over the region. Self-determination is critical to guaranteeing a safe and prosperous future.