Telecom executives are learning the same thing auto bosses and defense contractors figured out years ago: keep a close watch on what Elon Musk does, not just what he says.
On SpaceX’s earnings call this week, the company confirmed Semafor’s earlier reporting that it planned to move into the mobile business but that it didn’t need to become (or buy) a Verizon or AT&T to do so. “We definitely intend to build out terrestrial,” SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell said, but “you don’t necessarily have to spend many billions of dollars on low band spectrum all up front before you build your system.”
All the telecom talking points are true: it’s hard to build a network, Musk’s satellite technology isn’t advanced enough to work well in urban areas, and SpaceX doesn’t know how to operate in this industry. It’s also true that SpaceX’s entrance will no doubt force the big three players to spend more to get the spectrum and keep the customers they need to stay competitive.
We already know Musk is coming for the telecom companies’ customers — the next thing to look for is how SpaceX starts to spend on spectrum, how it sets itself up to acquire licenses and, of course, Musk’s continued coziness with FCC chair Brendan Carr. Telcos ignore SpaceX at their peril.