Economic concerns in focus as Zambia heads to the polls

Zambians will vote next month in a test for the southern African region’s most closely watched economic recovery, facing the twin pressures of emergency power imports and expanded parliamentary map that threaten to complicate the nation’s reform path.

President Hakainde Hichilema is largely seen as the frontrunner in the Aug. 13 vote; he broadly enjoys the backing of international investors eager for policy continuity in Africa’s second biggest copper producer — a sentiment shared at home. Hichilema, who was elected in 2021, will face Brian Mundubile, a first-time presidential contender running under the hastily organized coalition of opposition partners following the split of the former ruling party.

Economic concerns are taking center stage for voters who are measuring Hichilema’s macro achievements — including the $13 billion default era debt — against everyday financial reality. Rising food costs and squeezed household budgets continue to test patience on the ground. At the same time, the state’s reliance on costly emergency power imports to stave off grueling 20-plus hour blackouts ahead of the election cycle.

Hichilema’s re-election campaign under United Party for National Development anchors itself on macroeconomic stability, pointing to delivery services such as universal free education and investor confidence as the necessary foundation for long-term growth.

Mundubile’s National Reconciliation for Unity and Prosperity — which replaced the former ruling Patriotic Front — is running on grassroots discontent over high living costs and IMF-mandated austerity, positioning his opposition as the defender of local voters punishing the ruling party for economic hardship.

Market analysts see little threat to the presidency itself. “There was effectively no meaningful electoral opposition until a month ago, and this recent development seems unlikely to alter the electoral arithmetic, with our base case in line with recent reporting that the incumbent President remains relatively well-positioned for re-election,” said Katie Kironde, an emerging market and frontier strategist at Citibank in London.

But the debate is more about whether the opposition coalition can split the vote, strip Hichilema’s UPND of its working legislative majority, and threaten to gridlock reforms. Such legislative paralysis could derail Zambia’s debt default recovery, analysts said.

Zambia’s concurrent voting system allows voters to cast separate ballots for the presidency and the parliament, creating the possibility of split-ticket voting. But the 2025 constitutional changes specifically tying 40 new proportional representation seats directly on the presidential vote has the potential to offset those losses.

“The parliamentary election is where we’re likely to see a shift,” said Marisa Lourenco, an independent risk adviser in Johannesburg. “If the ruling party fails to secure a majority, the presidency will need to negotiate with opposition parties, which could slow policy implementation.”

Polling from the Zambia Elections Research Network points to volatility at the constituency level, showing that about a third of respondents plan to vote for their sitting member of parliament, while the same number are undecided or declined to state a preference.

Signal Risk, an African political risk advisory firm in Johannesburg, said in a briefing to clients shared with Semafor that disgruntled UPND members who missed out on the official nomination are running as independent candidates, suggesting that even if a voter supports Hichilema at the top of the ticket they might choose a well-known local neighbor on the parliamentary ballot over the official UPND nominee.