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Coming “super” El Niño could cost Africa $20 billion, AfDB says

Jul 27, 2026, 9:42am EDT
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The aftermath of a cyclone in Madagascar earlier this year.
Stringer/Reuters

Extreme weather events triggered by a particularly powerful El Niño weather pattern could cost African economies $10 billion to $20 billion and spark mass migration, the African Development Bank’s top climate expert said. Extreme droughts and flooding threaten food and water security, while government finances and banking are under threat if disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay loans. Food shortages could also prompt huge numbers of people to flee their homes.

AfDB’s Anthony Nyong said the continent will need as much as $100 ⁠billion this year to tackle climate change given the potential impact of El Niño, citing the “climate finance trap” — where governments are forced to use health, education, or infrastructure funding to respond to climate-related emergencies. Economies across Africa are already struggling as a result of fuel and fertilizer shortages caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and key industries such as cocoa and coffee are bracing for further woes.

A chart showing the annual change in surface temperature in Africa, compared to a 1951-1980 climatology baseline.
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