Tim’s view
The two biggest themes in global geopolitics — the rollout of AI and the fallout from the Iran war — look set to benefit Democrats, and potentially reshape the US political landscape in a matter of months.
Between the steady march of average US gasoline prices back above $4 per gallon and the rapid rise of power prices, American consumers have plenty to be frustrated by in their energy bills. And as November approaches, more contours of the Democratic platform on what to do about it are taking shape, staking out a position that borrows from both the left and the right. “Republicans have totally fumbled the ball,” Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat and the former governor of Virginia, told me. “This is a huge opportunity for Democrats, many of whose track records have not been great on energy.”
The decision last week by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to place a moratorium on new large-scale data center construction was an indication that more moderate Democrats will be willing to adopt the adversarial stance favored by the party’s progressive wing against Big Tech’s energy footprint, as my colleague David Weigel observed. More Democrats in state governments and in Congress are “absolutely” going to come out in support of similar moratoria, McAuliffe predicted.
At the same time, rising gasoline and power costs have watered down the party’s stance against fossil fuels. Hochul, who weakened the state’s climate goals and signed off on new gas pipelines, is again an example. Fighting climate change remains a talking point for some progressives, but across the party in general that concern is often being put on the backburner in favor of an effort to claim from Republicans the mantle of being the defender of a genuinely “all of the above” energy policy, which the Trump administration has scrapped in favor of a more selective, fossil fuel-centric approach.
That means taking a more permissive attitude toward domestic oil and gas drilling — made more urgent by the US-Iran war — while continuing to support the rapid buildout of renewables. McAuliffe, who co-chairs a Democratic advocacy group backed by the natural gas industry, said “there’s been a sea change” over the past few years when it comes to finding candidates willing to endorse natural gas as part of their energy affordability platforms.
The real challenge will be to deliver on those promises, if Democrats do regain power in Congress, by finally passing a bipartisan permitting bill, Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.) told me. Energy affordability is a key issue in Harder’s district, where he is running what could be a close race against his Republican challenger. “We’re short-term supported because people are so angry at Trump,” he said. “But long-term, it’s just going to be the shoe on the other foot, unless [Democrats] get our own act together and make it easier to build.”
Notable
- A coalition of 18 states joined a renewable energy industry lawsuit against the Trump administration, challenging the Defense Department’s move to block more than 150 onshore wind projects on what it says are national security grounds.