Tariff refunds are squeezing the federal budget. The US paid out $26 billion more in refunds than it collected in June after a February Supreme Court decision struck down most of the Trump administration’s levies, contributing to a widening $120 billion monthly deficit.
The White House justified tariffs partly as a way to close the budget gap, but has paid back more than $80 billion to companies — which now must figure out what to do with the windfall. Mentions of tariff windfalls on quarterly earnings calls have risen 130% in the last 90 days, with the second quarter’s earnings season still just beginning. Companies like Nike, which raised prices to cover tariff bills and now expects a nearly $1 billion refund, will face fresh calls to share that money with customers.
