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Democrats are dreaming of taking over the Senate and winning in red states from Iowa to Alaska. Chris Pappas wants to make sure they don’t forget about New Hampshire.
Pappas, a four-term congressman, is the party’s consensus candidate to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire — one of the party’s consistent bright spots during a decade dominated by Donald Trump. And Pappas is raising the alarm that his sleeper race is about to wake up.
“There are a lot of states that have come on the map over the last year and a half, which is positive. But we just can’t take our eye off of the Georgias, Michigans, and New Hampshires that are necessary to win,” Pappas told Semafor. “No one should be overconfident. This is a tough, tight race.”
There are myriad reasons why New Hampshire could be a nail-biter. With President Donald Trump’s help, Republicans successfully recruited former Sen. John E. Sununu, R-N.H, a scion of one of the state’s first families. The Senate Leadership Fund super PAC has $17 million in TV reservations this fall, and the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity Action super PAC has already plowed $2 million into the race.
More GOP spending could follow in a state relatively cheaper than other battlegrounds.
All this is happening while polls show a single-digit race between Pappas and Sununu — sometimes as close as just a two-point lead for the Democrat. GOP leaders see New Hampshire and Michigan as perhaps their most fertile pickup opportunities, given the party’s uncertain prospects in Georgia, and are taking the Senate race much more seriously than the past two cycles.
The GOP’s chances in the state are “very good,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., told Semafor. Sarah Scott, AFP’s deputy director in New Hampshire, said they “really are committed to John Sununu, and believe that he’s the best candidate for us to put forward and to actually make change in Washington.”
“The Republican Party has put a lot more resources in than they have in past cycles, and they’ve obviously recruited somebody with the kind of name ID that is a threshold to success,” Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H, told Semafor. “This is a really serious race.”
To be sure, Pappas has strategic advantages. It’s been a full 16 years since Republicans won a Senate race in New Hampshire, and the congressional delegation turned all Democratic a decade ago, even as Republicans held the governor’s office.
Democrats settled on Pappas more than a year ago, betting on the young, battle-tested congressman. The Democratic Senate Majority PAC has $10 million reserved in TV ads and more for digital; spokesperson Lauren French called Pappas “exactly the right candidate to win this race.” Sununu is also facing a primary challenge from former Sen. Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts and argues Sununu doesn’t fit New Hampshire’s independent mold.
Pappas said that Brown is “outworking” Sununu but that he “would be shocked if Sununu is not the Republican nominee” because of Trump’s endorsement.
And Democrats contend the Sununu name is so strong in New Hampshire that it even obscures who exactly is on the ballot: not former Gov. Chris Sununu, but his brother.
Usually, Hassan says, Granite Staters correct each other: “Somebody will hear something and say, ‘No, you idiot, it’s the brother.’”
“There is Sununu confusion,” Pappas agreed.
He’s betting the state’s uber-sophisticated voters will “see that [John Sununu is] a different person.”
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Pappas has his own internal dynamics to navigate. Two of his House colleagues in New York just lost primaries to progressive challengers, an example of the tough crosscurrents in the Democratic Party.
“I have a hard time seeing how someone running in a primary in a district that voted 80-20 for Kamala Harris is reflective of where the Democratic Party needs to go to reach the median voter that we lost in 2024,” Pappas said.
Yet he’s not dismissive of Democrats’ anti-establishment energy. Pappas is 46, making him a generational shift for the state. His candidacy marries New Hampshire’s independent streak with Democrats’ desire to fight Trump and turn the page.
Republicans are seeking to tie him to Democratic leadership anyway, arguing there’s little separation. Chris Schrimpf, a spokesperson for Sununu, called Pappas “the poster child of the Democratic Party’s leftist lurch.”
“Chris Pappas should be worried. He’s spent years answering to his Washington liberal bosses instead of Granite Staters,” said Chris Gustafson, spokesperson for SLF, the Senate GOP’s top super PAC, which supports Sununu.
But Pappas, a member of the Problem Solvers Caucus, says he’ll serve in a similar mold to Shaheen and Hassan. He’s also eager to separate himself from the Joe Biden years.
He said Democrats need “to be the party of smart, efficient government that can deliver results to people, and there are some ways in the last administration where that wasn’t working.”
“I push back against party leadership. I’ve challenged the leadership during the Biden administration on immigration, on the IRS getting into people’s personal bank accounts, on vaccine requirements for private businesses,” Pappas said.
He wants to make some changes to the filibuster to ease passage of Democratic priorities — but didn’t endorse killing it entirely. He’s not against Chuck Schumer as Democratic leader but isn’t committed to supporting him either: “I’ll make that decision later.”
“Leadership across the board was flat-footed at the beginning of Trump 2, and they’ve worked to respond and sharpen the pencils on the messaging, which I appreciate. But I do think this is a moment where we need new voices in the conversation,” Pappas said, suggesting that his party elevate Democrats from Trump-won states.
He supports Israel but is frustrated with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and is open to blocking certain US arms sales to the country. He didn’t endorse another government shutdown before the election, calling that prospect a “political failure” and proposing Congress move to make shutdowns less harmful.
And he’s not touching Maine’s Senate race or Graham Platner’s candidacy.
“I’m not getting involved in the race, I’m campaigning for myself,” Pappas said. “The fact is, he’s had a number of scandals that he’s going to have to continue to answer for.”
Room for Disagreement
The battleground map is potentially shifting for Republicans, who once saw Georgia as their best pickup opportunity. Their nominee there is Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., and while Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Collins is “our candidate,” Republicans seem more bullish on New Hampshire and Michigan.
Pappas said Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s decision not to run and the successful recruiting of Sununu made his own race that much tougher.
“They tried to get the governor to run in Georgia. And he didn’t. They got a former senator in John Sununu to run in New Hampshire, who’s a candidate that is getting a lot of national support,” Pappas said. “I think it’s going to stay in the margin of error from here to November.”
Burgess’s view
Pappas doesn’t get the buzz of Platner or the ascendant New York socialists. But I think candidates like him are more emblematic of the Democratic Party’s future anyway.
This is a must-win race for the majority. And as a senator, Pappas would join Democrats like Sens. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Ruben Gallego of Arizona in determining where the center of the party goes next. Democrats, more than anything, need young winners from swing states.