Semafor Signals
ICJ’s Rafah ruling won’t change Israel’s offensive
Insights from The New Arab, The Atlantic Council, Haaretz
The News
The International Court of Justice on Friday ordered Israel to end its military offensive in the southern city of Gaza, citing “immense risk” to Palestinians.
The latest decision marks the third time this year the court has ordered Israel to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza as it considers a genocide case filed by South Africa.
Because the ICJ lacks enforcement powers, its ruling is unlikely to stop Israel from continuing its offensive into the border town of Gaza, but will likely deepen Israel’s isolation from the West.
SIGNALS
White House worried about Gaza refugees spilling into Egypt
The Biden administration is increasingly worried a Rafah offensive could drive refugees into Egypt, according to the New Arab. That could “become a much larger regional problem,” said Matt Duss of the Center for International Policy: A ground invasion risks fracturing the fragile relationship Israel maintains with Egypt, according to the Atlantic Council. Cairo is sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, but it has a “red line” at accommodating Gazan refugees in part because it doesn’t want to be seen as complicit in supporting ethnic cleansing, and worries Hamas could move its base of operations to Egypt.
The ICJ ruling further fractures Western unity over Israel
The US has warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over a Rafah offensive, but Washington is likely to maintain support for Israel despite the ICJ ruling, according to Haaretz. Still, most other Western governments “are likely to stand by the court’s decision, and some may even impose sanctions on Israel if it disobeys the order,” the Israeli outlet wrote. And after European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said in April that a Rafah offensive was “completely unacceptable,” more than 60 EU lawmakers formally called on the bloc “to force Israel’s compliance with international law” via sanctions.
Famine in Rafah is becoming more pervasive
International aid agencies have for weeks warned that Gazans will face famine unless Israel reopens crossings for supplies, and restores clean water, energy, and healthcare services to fight malnutrition. But “none of those conditions have been met,” The New York Times reported and by the time one is announced “there’s already going to be widespread death,” said the director of a US government program that monitors famine conditions. Gaza’s health problems will persist even after the war ends, since a malnourished population is more susceptible to disease, and will likely suffer from lack of access to clean water and healthcare.
