Top Republican pumps brakes on prediction markets regulation

Morgan Chalfant
Morgan Chalfant
Washington briefing editor, Semafor
Updated May 20, 2026, 11:41am EDT
Politics
House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill, R-Ark.
House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill, R-Ark. Semafor.
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House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill, R-Ark., poured cold water on Congress moving to regulate prediction markets anytime soon.

During an interview at Semafor’s Banking on the Future Forum Wednesday, Hill said his committee is focused on educating members about current rules around prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, because many lawmakers lack a “basic understanding” of the current roles played by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission.

“It’s a little hard to legislate and get out front on policymaking when you have members that don’t have that basic understanding of current law,” Hill told Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller.

Hill indicated he wants to allow room for court disputes between states and the Trump administration to play out, adding that he believes the leaders of the CFTC and SEC “have the primary responsibility of demonstrating that they’re able to oversee these markets in the right way in compliance with the law.”

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The Arkansas Republican argued that was a better approach to “jumping to a conclusion about what we should or should not do in the Congress.”

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Wednesday marked a significant moment for Hill and other champions of a bipartisan, White House-backed bill designed to tackle housing affordability. The House was slated to vote on the package later Wednesday afternoon.

Hill said he couldn’t say what will happen when the updated bill reaches the Senate, but described Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, R-S.C., as a “good friend” and said their goal is to deliver a “housing package that the president can sign into law.”

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Hill also said that both chambers are working to settle differences on landmark cryptocurrency legislation, but that it was too early to say what changes the House needs to see from the Senate version of the market structure bill.

The legislation is “headed in the right direction,” he said, “but it’s not over ‘til it’s over.”

And Hill said he would hold Financial Services Committee hearings on legislation that would mimic an executive order signed by President Donald Trump this week that would expand fintech firms’ access to the Federal Reserve’s payment rails.

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