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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is familiar with her every move getting analyzed for possible clues to her future. Her approach to this election year, however, sends a clear signal: She’s genuinely unsure what’s next.
The 36-year-old New York Democratic socialist is being choosy in which candidates she campaigns for, a shift from past uses of her star power that’s less likely to cause intraparty friction than some other potential presidential hopefuls. She’s also broaching 2028 with palpable caution when asked in public.
With colleagues in private, she’s just as deliberative, according to interviews with more than a dozen Democratic lawmakers, aides, and operatives. Ocasio-Cortez’s allies are ready to cheer whatever she decides — whether it’s a Senate run, a White House bid, or staying in the House — but they see her taking her time.
“I’m not sure what she might decide,” said Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar, who arrived at the Capitol alongside Ocasio-Cortez as part of the buzzy “Squad” of young progressives. “She’s being strategic, looking at what her options are. I think, oftentimes, people will push you in a direction and set you up for failure. So, I think it is good for her to consciously make the decision and not get ushered into something that she may not want to do.”
Whatever she does will get scrutinized ahead of 2028, given polls showing her ahead in a prospective Democratic presidential primary and in a hypothetical matchup against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. But her recent comment that her ambitions were “way bigger” than any title or elected office suggests an alternate path, of an aspiring progressive movement leader who might not have to move up at all.
Ocasio-Cortez herself described her comparatively lighter pace of congressional endorsements this cycle as a departure from the way lawmakers usually wield their clout.
“The thing that’s different for me is that when I choose to mobilize, when I choose to endorse a candidate, I mobilize my entire operation for that candidate,” she told Semafor in a brief interview. “Letting campaigns kind of demonstrate what they’re capable of is one important element to an endorsement. But that’s not to say that a lack of endorsement is a, like, anti-endorsement — which, I think sometimes people take it that way,”
She’s set to rally in Philadelphia on Friday with Pennsylvania state Rep. Chris Rabb, a left-wing Israel critic whose congressional bid for a safe blue seat is opposed by Gov. Josh Shapiro. Next week she’ll appear in Montana for a Democrat who faces a contested primary on the outer edge of the House battlefield.
Ocasio-Cortez is also hinting she’ll do more to help Democrats as they devise their redistricting counterpunch. But after a 2020 cycle defined by bruising battles over her nascent influence on the party, followed by two election cycles of evolution into an occasional inside operator, she’s still maturing as a Democratic power broker.
Her fellow Democrats see her current, more cautious campaign-trail posture as part of that. And they’re grateful for her shift away from primary endorsements against sitting lawmakers.
Ocasio-Cortez’s mentor Bernie Sanders rankled some in the party — particularly those in the Black Caucus who have longstanding gripes with the Vermont Independent — by backing a progressive challenger to Rep. Valerie Foushee in North Carolina earlier this year. She and the rest of the “Squad” stayed out of it.
“They understand that we are on the brink of taking back the House, having Hakeem Jeffries to be the speaker, and so we are unified,” said Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-Ohio, who added that “Bernie Sanders is still looking for his existence and for his own power versus standing with us, or he would not be out there doing that.”
Sanders praised Ocasio-Cortez and told Semafor she was “doing a great job. She’s running around the country and she is supporting strong candidates and rallying the grassroots.”
Asked if Ocasio-Cortez is the heir to his style of politics, Sanders hopped onto an elevator with Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson and deadpanned: “She’s doing a great job. Ron Johnson is the heir to my politics.”
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Some Illinois progressives were frustrated that Ocasio-Cortez stayed out of most of their March primaries, including four open-seat races in Democratic districts — and that while she endorsed a progressive in Chicago’s northern suburbs, she did not do more for him.
Ocasio-Cortez has also not yet endorsed Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who both she and Sanders campaigned for when ran for governor of Michigan in 2018. Sanders endorsed El-Sayed the day he entered the Senate race.
And when Sen. Ed Markey faced a primary challenge in 2020, Ocasio-Cortez endorsed him, appearing in ads with her Green New Deal partner. This year she has stayed neutral on Markey’s primary challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton, even as the younger man cites her credibility as a strong messenger.
She’s not alone in being more selective. The Squad Victory Fund, a PAC created to raise money for the group’s four original members and their campaigns, has not invested in any new races this year. Notably, Ocasio-Cortez and other members of the Squad have largely stayed out of former Rep. Cori Bush’s comeback bid against Rep. Wesley Bell, D-Mo.
To some of her friends in the House, it all adds up to a Democrat who — while Shapiro and other contenders are openly driving toward 2028 — is still assessing her plans.
“I would say that there are a lot of people who believe that she is being coy about that. She’s not. She truly is not,” said Rep. Becca Balint, D-Vt., who’d been one of Ocasio-Cortez’s most enthusiastic boosters when she ran for the top Oversight Committee job.
Room for Disagreement
Ocasio-Cortez may have avoided risky endorsements, but she’s not allergic to maximizing her chances to defeat centrist Democrats. In the places where she’s chosen to step up her in-person campaigning, she’s taking advantage of disarray among them.
Rabb’s opponents, for example, have split their support between state Sen. Sharif Street and Ala Stanford.
“There’s so many splintered subsets of the same establishment,” Rabb told Semafor. “That is the case in my race.”
Nicholas and David’s View
Democrats’ shadow 2028 primary is already underway. As every aspirant’s words are picked apart for signs they might be inching closer towards a run, and already-clear hopefuls jockey for relevancy, Ocasio-Cortez’s public indecision is remarkable. It’s also believable.
In fact, she might be the only prominent Democrat with the luxury of taking a more cautious approach. With Schumer noncommittal on reelection in 2028, she could have an easier path to a Senate seat in a deep-blue state than she would to the White House.
But her national profile and popularity with the base means a presidential run could be within reach even if she lags others in preparation.
“She doesn’t need to figure it out right now,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash. “She’s not like a politician that needs to build name ID, which is why a lot of people get in early. That’s not her.”
Notable
- C-SPAN posted the clip of Ocasio-Cortez’s latest, full comment about 2028, to David Axelrod last week.
Burgess Everett contributed to this report.