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Why South Africa’s ex-President Jacob Zuma could be ‘kingmaker’ in general election
Insights from the Financial Times, Semafor, Al Jazeera, Chatham House
The News
Former South African President Jacob Zuma is unlikely to become the country’s next president after the May 29 election — but he may decide who will.
The African National Congress, which has held power in South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994, has slipped in the polls, plagued by scandals and a suffering economy. Last year Zuma split with the ANC and created the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party), which analysts say could hold the balance of power if the election results deliver a coalition government.
SIGNALS
MKP could flip election on its head
Zuma’s party has disrupted the election campaign, drawing packed crowds at rallies and chipping support away from the ANC. That kind of chaos could be just what Zuma is angling for, one analyst told the Financial Times: “Zuma is waiting to be the kingmaker,” Mbali Ntuli, head of the Ground Work Collective, said. “He wants to put the ANC in a corner where they fight among themselves,” and need to lean on his party to prop up their government. ANC needs 50% of the vote-share to stay in power after the election, but polling has shown that it could secure just 37% of the vote without entering into a coalition agreement with other parties, Semafor Africa reported last month.
Party making inroads among voters
Zuma enjoys name recognition among South Africa’s public, despite allegations of corruption that plagued his government. But some analysts question if his ubiquity alone is enough to remove the ANC’s grip on power: He has “a powerful brand and has impact and influence because he was in the ANC for so long,” political analyst Asanda Ngoasheng told Al Jazeera. But “many will be shocked at how the power diminishes the minute you are no longer in the ANC.” Separately, ANC insiders told the outlet that they are bracing for Zuma’s impact on their campaign.
Poll could be first to deliver multi-party governance
The 2024 election is shaping up to be the first time that the ANC’s support falls below 50% — meaning that for the first time since South Africa established its democracy, the nation could see multiple parties governing it, Christopher Vandome, senior research fellow at Chatham House’s Africa Programme, wrote. That might not amount to much progress: “coalitions have a poor record in South African politics at the local level, and the general election could be the beginning of five years of volatility,” Vandome wrote.
