A new South Africa election poll highlights Zuma’s significant impact

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) may see a sharp drop in support in next month’s election, according to a new survey that suggests a new party backed by former president Jacob Zuma will take some of its voters.

The survey, by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) think tank, provides a snapshot of voter preferences ahead of the May 29 election. It shows the ANC, which needs 50% of the vote to continue governing without entering into a coalition with smaller parties, could win as little as 37%. Meanwhile, Zuma’s Umkhonto we Sizwe party (MKP), was the third most popular party in the survey, with 13%.

“Through much of 2022 and 2023 the Foundation polled ANC support at near 50%. That figure is now down by roughly the same margin that the MKP has grown,” the SRF said in its report. The Foundation stated that in earlier surveys, going as far back as 2022, it “found that up to a third of voters who were then intending to vote for the ANC were vulnerable to departing the party.”

The ANC has governed South Africa with a parliamentary majority since coming to power in 1994, following the end of apartheid.

Zuma was South Africa’s president between 2009 and 2018. He resigned amid allegations of endemic corruption across government and state-run companies and was succeeded by his deputy, Cyril Ramaphosa, the current president. He was sentenced to 15 months in prison in 2021 after refusing to testify during a financial corruption investigation but was freed on medical parole after two months.

He declared his support for the newly-formed MKP in December and has led its election campaign. The SRF’s report said Zuma had “very strong favorability scores in “key political constituencies.”