View / UAE exits OPEC to chase the future economy

For more than five decades, Abu Dhabi sat at the table that shaped global energy markets. It helped build OPEC into the most consequential commodity cartel in history, endured its internal tensions, and absorbed its quota constraints. On May 1, that chapter ends. The Iran war was a factor, but the UAE’s decision stems from a bigger shift in technology and security frameworks that are at odds with managing the inevitable decline of hydrocarbons.

To understand why the UAE is leaving, it’s important to know how it differs from its former OPEC partners. Countries like Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, and to a significant extent Saudi Arabia depend on oil exports to fund their governments, and their social contracts with citizens. Maintaining oil prices near a collective break-even requires the discipline of cartel economics.

The UAE, by contrast, has diversified from oil. Dubai has built one of the world’s most sophisticated non-oil economies. Abu Dhabi rightfully claims to be the “capital of capital,” home to trillions in sovereign wealth that can recycle money into new investments rather than simply channel surplus revenue when crude prices are high.

Abu Dhabi has shouldered a burden over the past decade, keeping its output low to help the group. Its untapped reserves are being wasted as the world races toward an era of abundant renewable energy. Every barrel left in the ground today risks being worth less tomorrow. By leaving OPEC, Abu Dhabi can monetize a diminishing asset now — and it doesn’t hurt that its move received strong approval from US President Donald Trump.

Abu Dhabi will reap a windfall from crude exports. The associated natural gas that can be captured during production may be a bigger prize: The UAE has made an aggressive bet on becoming a leading global AI power — not merely as an investor, but as infrastructure — a goal requiring abundant, cheap energy at massive scale.

Beyond the geology, there is a strategic dimension. The UAE’s ambition to attract hyperscalers and sovereign AI programs from allied nations requires projecting full economic autonomy. Maintaining a prominent role in a Saudi-led cartel — and helping boost oil revenue for members like Iran that is attacking the Gulf and restricting its exports — clashes with this independent, future-focused identity.

That this split happened during the war isn’t a coincidence. The UAE has been vocal that the US, Israel, France and other countries have proven to be better allies than its Arab neighbors. Decades of relations built through OPEC and other organizations withered under fire, while Western and Israeli ties deepened through the Abraham Accords and shared security threats from Iran. A country recalibrating its defense partnerships inevitably adjusts its economic ones.

Crude prices rose on the news, with Brent topping $120 a barrel on Thursday. OPEC will find it harder to intervene to balance the market and stabilize prices, but so far it appears that Abu Dhabi’s exit isn’t prompting an exodus.

The arc of this story is, however, about the disaggregation of a cartel built for a world that no longer exists. The UAE hasn’t abandoned oil — it intends to produce more of it. What it has given up on is the fiction that its interests are aligned with countries whose entire futures depend on keeping barrel prices artificially high.

Abu Dhabi is playing a longer game: powered by data, defended by new alliances, and no longer willing to leave its most valuable asset underground while the world moves on above it.

Judah Taub is the founder and managing partner of Hetz Ventures, an Israeli early-stage venture capital firm specializing in cybersecurity, data, and AI infrastructure.