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US inflation likely spiked in March, economists predict

Apr 5, 2026, 5:59pm EDT
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High prices for gasoline and diesel in downtown Los Angeles, California
Mike Blake/Reuters

The Iran war likely drove up US consumer prices in March, economists predicted ahead of key inflation data expected this week.

The inflation spike could be the largest one-month jump since 2022, Bloomberg wrote, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused gas prices to surge.

The price hikes were driven more by fears of a shortage rather than a concrete supply deficit, so economists say the worst is yet to come.

Airlines as well as delivery platforms like Amazon are adding surcharges because of higher fuel costs, and mortgage rates are rising.

An economic slowdown would put the US Federal Reserve in a difficult position: Cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy would risk making inflation worse.

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