The News
DORAL, Fla. — Republicans hoped to focus their midterm campaign on the bigger tax refunds Americans are getting from last year’s party-line megabill. Instead, they’re stuck in a doomed push to try for a sequel.
Most GOP lawmakers who gathered at President Donald Trump’s resort this week for their annual policy retreat said they doubted that the party could get another huge filibuster-proof bill to his desk, even as their leaders called for one. Several Republicans made clear that a new party-line bill would struggle to even get through the House.
And some of Speaker Mike Johnson’s members called for a different message ahead of the election, one that’s more focused on the economic goals Democrats are touting.
“I’d rather see us dig in on something else that’s equally important, like housing, costs of groceries, those sorts of things, and really help drive some of these prices down,” said Rep. John Rutherford, R-Fla.
A Republicans-only bill passed with filibuster protections isn’t “viable right now,” he added. “Certainly after the midterms.”
After Trump delivered a mixed message Monday night about when the escalating US-Israel war with Iran would end, the rest of the Republican retreat focused on putting an optimistic face forward. House GOP leaders don’t describe the midterms as lost, even though some of their members privately see a Democratic takeover as almost inevitable.
But maintaining that optimism through spring won’t be easy for the party’s leaders. Trump is expected to send Congress a request for more money for his war, while threatening to stop signing bills until Republicans pass a voter ID and citizenship law that faces serious hurdles. Republicans’ doubts about their ability to pass another megabill only adds to their problems.
Notably, even major players in last year’s huge tax-cut bill are joining in the skepticism. House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith of Missouri, whose tax-writing committee helped make the “big, beautiful bill” happen, isn’t backing off his past views of a follow-up.
“I would absolutely love a second reconciliation bill. I would love that, but I just don’t think it will ever happen,” Smith told reporters, citing the immense difficulty Hill Republicans had last year, with a bigger majority than they currently hold.
Smith and other Republicans are simultaneously trying to sell their past accomplishments, like the megabill’s tax deductions on tips. They believe those benefits will give purple-district candidates a strong enough message to hold onto their seats this fall.
“Getting the votes is not easy,” said Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., a senior appropriator. “I’m focused on the next appropriation bills, which is the next best thing.”
In this article:
Know More
On the other side of the Capitol, Senate Republican leaders are also not sold on the potential of another megabill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that “you have to answer … the hard question of, what is your picture of victory at the end?”
That endgame is still up in the air as the policy retreat comes to a close, and Trump has so far declined to push Hill Republicans in any specific direction.
Trump’s advisers are starting to guide GOP lawmakers clearly in one direction, though — toward recalibrating their immigration message ahead of the midterms.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair privately told Hill Republicans in Doral on Tuesday that they should focus on the administration’s efforts to remove criminals from the country when talking about deportations, echoing how Trump has often talked about the issue, according to a person familiar with Blair’s remarks.
Blair also urged Republicans to highlight what the White House has often described as Democratic opposition to removing undocumented migrants from the US, the person added.
Axios first reported the remarks by Blair, which marked a shift in rhetoric from Republicans who have previously depicted mass deportations of migrants as Trump’s priority.
Room for Disagreement
There is one top Republican who still believes in the dream of a second megabill: the House speaker.
Johnson acknowledged the legislative challenges he’d face, but he insisted to reporters at the retreat that Republicans’ next attempt might be a smaller-bore package. “It’ll be much smaller in scope, but I think it is still something that is a priority for the leadership team,” he separately told reporters.
Hill Republicans have floated a variety of different policy priorities they might want to include — but several, such as the voting bill, would have a hard time passing muster under strict Senate rules.
Another Johnson goal for a potential megabill could create electoral trouble for purple-seat members.
He told reporters that one area of consensus among his members was eliminating “fraud, waste and abuse” in blue states’ social service programs. But further cuts to social service programs could be a heavy lift for Hill Republicans in an election year.
Notable
- National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson, R-N.C., sees the potential to hang onto the majority this fall and defy history thanks to a notably small pool of battleground seats, Punchbowl News reported.
Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott contributed to this report.