Republicans to Trump: Make any Cabinet shakeups soon, or after November

As President Donald Trump approaches what’s looking like a rough midterm campaign, senior Republicans are preparing for the possible exit of some top advisers.

The biggest question they have is which window Trump might choose to make changes: in the next couple of months, or after Election Day.

Routine work on Capitol Hill is already getting harder with the primary season in full swing. And as House Democrats vow to investigate Trump officials if they retake the majority this fall, Trump’s clear lack of appetite for firings in his Cabinet — a learned response to crises after far more turnover during his chaos-ridden first term — is getting put to the test.

From Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s relationship with Corey Lewandowski to FBI Director Kash Patel’s locker-room celebration with the US men’s hockey team to a probe of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s conduct in office, multiple Trump advisers are facing bad headlines that would have sunk their counterparts under other presidents.

Republicans aren’t sure whether Trump will keep holding his team intact — but they are eager for a signal one way or the other, particularly as the party looks to tamp down campaign-trail distractions.

“Folks are going to want to know that the team’s going to stay together through the election,” Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., told Semafor. “We’re not quite there yet, but we’re getting close. You don’t want to be trying to hire people to train them in, going into an election. All your attention needs to be on the election.”

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., said she imagined any changes would happen after the midterms: “I just don’t think he’s going to do that before the election. I just think it’s perceived as too disruptive.”

Trump’s Cabinet during his first term turned over consistently, starting with HHS Secretary Tom Price’s resignation just nine months in. His second-term dramas range from Attorney General Pam Bondi’s missteps on the release of the Epstein files to more recent staffing makeovers at Robert F. Kennedy Jr.‘s Health and Human Services Department.

But Trump’s disinterest in shakeups at the top could easily become a political liability if Democrats’ Senate prospects this year get much stronger than their long-shot status.

Democrats are already vowing to heavily scrutinize Trump nominees if they get the majority: “We would make sure that unqualified people don’t get through. But we’re not a standing ‘no’ on everybody,” said Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, the presumptive incoming party whip next year.

A person close to the White House said there have been internal conversations about Noem and Chavez-DeRemer as the most obvious Republicans to jettison politically. There’s also been chatter about Energy Secretary Chris Wright eyeing the exits, although Trump wants him to stay and he’s received more responsibility within the administration.

Ultimately, Trump may make a far different call than his aides or operatives and consultants. Even his closest allies make clear that chatter or the opinions of those around him are just that, until he says otherwise.

“He looks at it so differently than the rest of us … the biggest convincing factor for him would probably be, ‘Sir, we still are confident about the Senate, but if our margins go down even more, you’re going to have a very difficult time confirming who you want,’” the person said. “The president’s instincts here are probably not to, but we’ve always wanted Kristi to go.”

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., one of two Senate Republicans to call for Noem’s departure after federal immigration agents killed two US citizens, said the White House should “look at public opinion and drive your priorities based on the people who have screwed up most, causing that erosion of public support.

“Top on the list is Kristi Noem,” Tillis said, adding that there “probably” others that fit the bill, “but I’m a very disciplined person, I can’t get past that one.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Semafor it would be “helpful” to get guidance on whom Republicans will be working with in the coming months. But he underscored that when he talks to the White House, he defers to officials there on personnel.

“Those guys all serve at the pleasure of the president,” Thune said, “We’re kind of at the point where, sometimes, there’s some turnover organically.”