Flagship

Israel intensifies Gaza offensive

Israel intensified its operations in Gaza, as humanitarian officials voiced worry over a growing crisis in the enclave and Israel’s leader acknowledged his military was paying a “very heavy cost.” Gaza’s health ministry said at least 70 people were killed in an Israeli air strike that hit a refugee camp, a report Israel said it was investigating. Israeli officials, meanwhile, said more than 150 soldiers had been killed in a “complex and complicated” months-long war. In all, more than 20,000 Palestinians have been killed in the fighting, which erupted after Hamas killed more than 1,100 people in an Oct. 7 attack in Israel.

Still, talks over a truce continued, with Hebrew-language media reporting Egypt having proposed a multistage ceasefire that would lead to the release of all remaining hostages held by Palestinian militants and the cessation of hostilities. The fighting has meant that Bethlehem, the purported birthplace of Jesus Christ in what is now the Israeli-occupied West Bank, has canceled Christmas celebrations to show solidarity with those in Gaza. “There is no joy left in our hearts,” one resident of the town told Al Jazeera.

Hamas’ growing influence

Hamas’ influence has grown markedly in the months since its Oct. 7 attack on Israel, U.S. intelligence agencies reportedly believe. The militant group has won credit for securing the release of hundreds of Palestinians held by Israel, and has somewhat successfully cast itself as a moral group that rigorously adheres to Islam, CNN reported. That has spurred analysts to question whether Hamas may soon have greater relevance internationally. “Hamas seems to be hoping that its ideology, its cause, and its brand will go global in much the same way the Islamic State’s did,” the counterterrorism researcher Colin Clarke wrote in Foreign Policy. “Hamas is a different organization after the Oct. 7 attacks, and intelligence officials and security services should adapt accordingly.”

Ukraine marks Western Christmas

Orthodox Christians in Ukraine marked their first Gregorian Christmas, underlining their country’s cultural and religious split from Russia. Kyiv had traditionally marked Christmas on the Julian calendar, also used by Russia, but its Orthodox Church broke from Moscow’s following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and this year began marking Christmas on Dec. 25, with much of the Western world. The celebrations came as The New York Times reported Russian President Vladimir Putin had signaled through intermediaries he was open to a ceasefire with Ukraine that froze the conflict along its current battlelines. Analysts were skeptical of his intentions, though: “The timing … is more consistent with Russia’s ongoing efforts to delay and discourage further Western military assistance,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote.

China suffers record cold

China is hoping to emerge from a record-breaking, weeks-long cold snap that has forced school closures, public transport disruptions, and a major heating supply crunch. Beijing has seen the most sub-zero hours this month in more than 70 years, while Shanghai is suffering its coldest winter in four decades. In Henan province, southwest of the capital, widespread damage to boiler systems has led officials to prioritize heating for residences, hospitals, and senior centers. Temperatures in parts of the north will be about 5 degrees Celsius (41 degrees Fahrenheit) lower than usual, Chinese meteorological officials said. “This year is not normal,” one Shanghai resident told Reuters.

Chinese cars win over SAfrica

Chinese-brand cars are increasingly outselling European and Japanese rivals in South Africa. The top-selling and third-most popular SUVs in the country were made by Chinese companies, according to the South China Morning Post, in part because of improving quality but also thanks to lower prices. Some Chinese companies are also offering services traditionally dominant carmakers are loath to provide — longer warranties, more in-car tech offered as standard, and improved dealer support. Their success in the higher-end SUV segment helps dispel the notion that China-made or China-designed cars are only competitive in low-end segments. “Chinese carmakers have taken the South African market by storm,” one automotive analyst noted.

Cities cut speed limits for safety, climate

Increasing numbers of cities are lowering urban speed limits to reduce traffic accidents and cut carbon emissions. In the U.S., places including Seattle, Denver, Minneapolis, Washington, D.C., and Hoboken have cut their speed limits, Yale Climate Connections noted, while Sweden’s quarter-century-long Vision Zero strategy recommends lowering them, and the 20’s Plenty for Us campaign in the U.K. has spawned copycat efforts elsewhere. In Britain, for example, more than 40% of the overall population now lives in areas with a 20 mile-per-hour cap. “Safety and environmental goals go together,” the chief safety officer in Seattle’s transportation department said. “They’re inevitably linked.”

Green gaze on Brazil

Brazil is facing growing criticism for its environmental record as the spotlight turns to the host of the COP30 climate conference. The majority of the nearly-2,000 environmentalists killed globally in the past decade were from Latin America, according to El País, which noted that in Brazil in particular, activists have been targeted in battles over water as soybean production has grown. Folha de S.Paulo, meanwhile, noted that Pará — which will host the 2025 U.N. climate summit — accounts for the highest deforestation rate in Brazil and is a rare state that does not monitor the bathing conditions at its beaches.

Semafor’s  2024  World Economy Summit, on April 17-18, will feature conversations with global policymakers and power brokers in Washington, against the backdrop of the IMF and World Bank meetings.

Chaired by former U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, and in partnership with BCG, the summit will feature 150 speakers across two days and three different stages. Join Semafor for conversations with the people shaping the global economy.

Global instability to worsen

Geopolitical instability is likely going to worsen in the coming months, an array of analysts warned. The lack of a lone global superpower means “the world has entered its most volatile and dangerous period” since the height of the Cold War, Goldman Sachs’ Jared Cohen and Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer argued in Foreign Policy, while two prominent energy analysts wrote in Foreign Affairs that the transition to clean energy will involve a scramble for resources that is already “upending geopolitics.” The French investment bank Natixis said, meanwhile, that “geopolitical bad actors” were the biggest risk to economic growth in 2024, according to its own survey of 500 investors.

British billionaire wins Man United

The British chemicals billionaire Jim Ratcliffe won a long-running battle to buy a 25% stake in Manchester United, securing operational control of the legendary soccer club. Ratcliffe — a Mancunian and lifelong fan of the team — fended off a rival Qatari bid, and pledged to invest $300 million in United in a bid to revive its flagging fortunes: The club has gone through eight managers in barely a decade, winning just four major tournaments, a far cry from its prior dominance. Despite Ratcliffe’s promises of a return to glory, United has a long way to go: It has “fallen behind on so many levels,” the author of a recent book about the club told The Athletic. “It needs a complete overhaul.”

US towns promote Christmas cheer

Two U.S. towns spotlighted unusual efforts to promote Christmas cheer. Steubenville, Ohio, sought in 2015 to address what seemed to be chronic decline by displaying life-size nutcrackers for a festive feel, a tradition that has since birthed a nascent tourism industry: “For the first time in years, our downtown was lively again,” one resident told The Washington Post. “It was like a miracle happened.” And the town of Santa Claus, Indiana, maintained a century-long volunteer tradition of replying to letters received from around the country — more than 21,000 this year — from children and adults alike, either asking for gifts or seeking moral support. “We laugh, we cry, we commiserate with one another,” the town’s “Chief Elf” told the BBC.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Union, a grouping of five post-Soviet states.
• Protests are expected in Belgrade following Serbian parliamentary elections that the opposition claims were rigged.
• Britain’s King Charles III delivers his annual Christmas message, part of festive commemorations worldwide.

Hot dinners

We’re coming to the end of the hottest year on record, and the coming years could be even warmer. A hotter climate will affect crop yields, unless ways of boosting them can be found. “Food security is my biggest worry about climate change,” says the environmental scientist Hannah Ritchie. We’re “in a race: can innovation and agricultural productivity keep pace with a changing climate?”

So far, the answer is yes, she says. “Temperatures might have broken records, but so has crop production.” The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that the 2023/24 marketing year will see record crops. Droughts and floods have hit local production, but even that has less impact than it would have done in the past, as when a 19th century El Nińo caused starvation. “We won’t have tens of millions dying from famine this time,” says Ritchie. “Modern agriculture, global supply chains, and political structures mean we’re much more resilient to extreme events.”

Devil in the details

In 638, the small town of Widecombe in Devon, southwest England, was struck by a storm. Presumably that was not in itself an entirely unusual event, but this one was, according to surviving accounts, notable, in that several churchgoers “were violently killed by what was either the temporary suspension of normal laws of physics or possibly the Devil.” The scientist and medievalist Alexander Zawacki cites two contemporary accounts.

Lightning struck the church and bounced around inside “as if it were with a great Cannon bullet.” It “strook off all the hinder part” of one man’s head, and “the braines fell backward intire,” which sounds unpleasant, although the front of his head was so untouched they thought him merely sleeping. Another three were killed. Stories at the time described it as an act of God, but soon stories spread that “the Devil had come to Widecombe to claim the souls of one of its parishioners — which, honestly, maybe.”

Sprinting slowly to the finish

The anonymous blogger Tracing Woodgrains once wrote a blog post titled “Speedrunning College: My plan to get a Bachelor’s degree in a year.” Now he revisits it. “It would be wiser, in many ways, for me to avoid writing this article,” he sighs, because four years later — the normal amount of time it takes to complete college in the U.S. — he has only just got his degree.

The speedrunning plan was an attempt to short-circuit his own problem with procrastination. He had struggled with it during high school, but found that — when given clear goals — it disappeared: He was “diligent, focused, and capable” as a Mormon missionary and sailed through military basic training. But then, a few months in, the procrastination began again. “I am a man at war with my own mind,” he writes. Only the looming disaster of flunking out gave him focus. His advice to educators wishing to help others struggling with procrastination: Enforce “tight deadlines, supervision, and other tools of rigor.”

U.S. Christmas movies are winning over growing numbers of fans in France. Though often derided for saccharine and predictable plots, so-called “Hallmark movies” — not all of which are actually made by Hallmark — are appealing to more French viewers, themselves frequently caricatured as cynical and interested only in “high art.” The movies offer the allure of what Le Monde labeled “the American way of life”: eggnog, plaid pajamas, giant Christmas trees, and “the glorification of traditional values.” Or, as one 22-year-old fan of the genre put it: “I like happy endings, I like it to snow at Christmas, I like grandiose decorations, which you don’t often see in France.”

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